NFL Week 12 Start, Sit, and More!

What’s up, everyone? We had quite the game last night, didn’t we? Yes, I’m happy because I’m a Browns fan, but honestly, it was a fun game overall with a classic AFC North battle highlighted by snowfall. I just have a lot of fun watching players work through those conditions.

Plus, I’m happy Nick Chubb scored. I don’t have him anywhere in fantasy, just glad to see him back in the endzone. Such a franchise icon.

To quickly recap last week, bringing up pressure rates for Bo Nix and Matthew Stafford did not bite me in the butt! They finished QB3 and QB5 on the week. Before I leave the QB talk, I want to just mention in case you haven’t seen it, my study on QB streaming is up on-site and is available for reference anytime. With bye-weeks an the fantasy playoffs coming up, streaming may prove more useful than anticipated, so go check that out. I will warn you, it’s skews data-heavy, but I try to offer TL;DR advice at the end.

De’Von Achane had a decent bounce-back game and Jaylen Warren was the RB24 in half-PPR formats thanks to four receptions. Jonathan Taylor had some scoring opportunities vultured from him against the Jets and failed to get much going, but calling for a Rico Dowdle struggle bus was the right call.

Geroge Pickens did fine against Baltimore but not quite up to lofty expectations. Cedric Tillman had a rough go in a good matchup, as Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore took the spotlight (but the process was fine…right?). Demario Douglas’ 4 for 59 was nothing special. A touchdown saved Quentin Johnston but could have had a much, much, bigger day (2 catches on 8 targets but man they were some contested looks).

Dawson Knox caught four passes for 40 yards, meh. And I totally did NOT call out Davis Allen as a potential streamer. Nope, not me.

With all that said, let’s jump into this week!

Things to look out for in Week 12

Quarterbacks

🇺🇸 It’s a little scary, but Drake Maye might have a good game against Miami. The Dolphins haven’t given up a lot to QBs, but let’s look at this. Miami is keeping things in front of them, allowing the lowest DADOT in the league so far. For what it’s worth, that hasn’t been Maye’s game anyway, as he’s just 29th in deep throws per game and his AYPA is also low. So Miami limiting downfield throws doesn’t change that much about his game. But they have also struggled to pressure QBs and have allowed at least 231 passing yards in each of their last four games. Combine that and the potential for divisional game wackiness, and you have a potential bye-pocalypse start.

🔥 It’s a little scary, but Will Levis might have a good game against Houston. And yes I copied the first sentence from the previous paragraph. Levis has played decent football of late. He’s taking a lot of sacks, for sure, but not all of them have been on him. In the last two games, he’s been running, has completed 64.8% of his passes, and has a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. Fitting for Levis’s play style, Houston is not only allowing the second-most touchdown passes to QBs, they also have the second-most picks on the season. With so many bye weeks, the waiver wire is thin and options are few, but Levis could turn up a good performance and get you through the week. I won’t say it comes without its risks, however.

Start: Bo Nix vs LV, Baker Mayfield at NYG

Sit: Anthony Richardson vs DET, Matthew Stafford vs PHI, Sam Darnold at CHI

Running Backs

🎖️ Brian Robinson gets a great matchup against Dallas this week. The ‘Boys just got absolutely mauled by Joe Mixon and the Texans on the ground in their 34-10 blowout loss. They’re giving up 150 rushing+receiving yards per game to running backs to go along with 14 total scores given up to the position.

🤠 Sticking around in that game, will Dallas give Rico Dowdle another chance as the starter? Game script may have played a role as to why he wasn’t involved as much as you’d expect a “starter” to be, but even so, he wasn’t effective when he did touch the ball. How much of a leash does Dallas give him?

🐈‍⬛ Chuba Hubbard has had no less than 17 touches in any given game since Week 2, which is elite usage. But, Kansas City is a horrible matchup for running backs. The only reason James Cook was decent last week was that he scored twice (he averaged 2.2 YPC and 1.4 YPR on 14 total touches) and he is in a much better offense. Hubbard is a sit this week against the Chiefs. He’s on a worse offense and also has to deal with the return of Jonathon Brooks. I am curious to see how Jonathon Brooks does this week and how he looks (finally) but both are not startable.

⚡️ J.K. Dobbins is a risky start in his revenge game against Baltimore. The Ravens are the 8th worst matchup for running backs this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers opted to throw a bunch in this game. He’s only averaged more than four yards per carry just twice since Week 2. His receiving work hasn’t been too bad with the exception of last week, and Baltimore is one of the friendliest matchups for pass-catching backs.

Start: Aaron Jones at CHI, Tony Pollard at HOU, Bucky Irving at NYG

Sit: D’Andre Swift vs MIN, Denver RBs vs LV

Wide Receivers

⚡️ Now, while Dobbins might be a risky start against Baltimore, I think Quentin Johnston is a great start yet again. They surrender the most points to wide receivers as a whole but are a great matchup for receivers on the outside. Johnston’s eight targets in Week 11 were the highest of his season (and also his career I believe), but he came down with just two catches. It should be noted that several targets were in tight windows and difficult catches where even the best receivers would struggle to catch them. His ADOT last week was also a staggering 20.8. That number is usually reserved for low-volume deep threats, and he averaged that on eight targets. If he gets the same workload and some better luck, we might see a huge QJ game (for what it’s worth, I like Justin Herbert in this game as well).

🐴 I’m going back to my boy Devaugn Vele against Las Vegas this week. 52% of the points they give up to receivers come out of the slot, the second-highest rate in the NFL. On a per-throw basis, they aren’t a bad matchup for receivers despite what points allowed metrics might say, they just don’t face a large volume of throws per game.

🔥 Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (whom I will now be referring to as NWI) get an in-division game against Houston, who concede the tenth most points to receivers on the year. Ridley has had no less than 58 yards since Deandre Hopkins was traded and should have had a long touchdown last week if not for a penalty. NWI has scored a touchdown in five of the last six weeks and six targets in two of his last three. The Titans will need to pass to keep up against Houston, and Will Levis has played better as of late. Good things might be in store for us with these two.

🐎 Josh Downs and Alec Pierce might be nice starts since you can’t run on Detroit. They operate on a “bend don’t break” style of play, where opponents are getting a lot of yards and completions against them, but not touchdowns. Further, teams are throwing downfield against them, which is right down Pierce’s alley. A deep shot or two to Pierce and the short area targets for Downs should do the trick this week.

Start: JSN vs ARI, Jauan Jennings vs GB, Jalen Coker vs KC

Sit: Jaylen Waddle vs NE, Michael Pittman Jr. vs DET

Tight Ends

⚡️ We’ve talked about all the other Chargers this week, so why not mention Will Dissly? The former Seahawk tight end has had at least 6 targets in four of his last five games, with decent yardage and reception totals in those games with 6 targets. He’s worth streaming this week.

🐬 Since Week 5, Jonnu Smith is the TE5 in points per game and the TE8 in targets per game. Why has he been so necessary to the offense that has De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill? I wish I knew, but I know it’s working out well for him. Ride the wave while you can! New England is not a great matchup for tight ends, but they’ve given up useful performances to guys like Tyler Conklin, Evan Engram, and…Jonnu Smith.

🔵 Want a deep-streaming tight end for those brave enough or desperate enough? Why not start the starting tight end for Tommy Cutlets (aka Tommy DeVito)? Theo Johnson hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but I do expect the Giants to throw a bunch against Tampa. Last year in his starts, DeVito didn’t target his tight ends at a super high rate, but it wasn’t bad and Darren Waller had some decent target shares during that stretch. Johnson is not yet at the caliber of Waller (maybe? Idk), but I think we could be in for a nice surprise this week.

That’s all for this week!

Join the Ballfield Banter Discord now!