Are Streaming QBs the Way of the Future?

The curse of the fantasy football season is that it’s so short. It feels like a long season in the thick of it, especially whether you’re creating content, setting lineups, watching waivers, or making trade offers, it’s a lot. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking 17 games. No other major American sport has so few games to go off of.

So naturally, when trying to perform a study, your sample sizes are quite small, especially when you’re only using in-season data and not comparing it to previous years. When you get a decent sample size to make observations, the season is nearing its close. But, we still have some time before the playoffs, and fantasy managers everywhere are vying for playoff contention and these last few weeks are crucial.

It’s been an interesting year for fantasy football. Wide receivers aren’t performing how anyone expected. Running backs are king. Tight ends are having a down year so far. And quarterbacks are struggling to get much going in the modern era of NFL defensive schemes.

That will be the main point of focus of this article. It seems that now more than ever, our top-end QBs aren’t as matchup-proof as once believed. I first wondered about this subject several weeks ago when I brought up Patrick Mahomes as a drop candidate at the beginning of October in a TikTok video. It was crazy to say something like that, drop Patrick Mahomes? He’s doing better now with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and the resurgence of Travis Kelce, but for a while there, Mahomes was actually hurting your fantasy team.

Next is CJ Stroud. You have not been happy with your selection of him for the majority of this season. He’s been very matchup-dependent and only has four “OK” games based on our data.

Before diving into the data, I want to explain what’s going on.

The Data Setup

Firstly, I compiled off of Stathead a list of every quarterback to throw more than 15 attempts in a game this year. That should include most starting quarterbacks and eliminate most backups who came in for only a drive or two. It should also eliminate games like Anthony Richardson’s injury game where he didn’t really have a chance to put up points before being ruled out. What it does not filter out are the relief games where guys like Joe Flacco come in and throw 20 times in place of the regular starter and put up a useful performance without anyone having him in lineups. So I will say this isn’t a perfect data set, but, it should be helpful to look at some overall trends at the QB position.

Next, I compiled ADP data and DST data from Fantasy Pros, threw it all into a spreadsheet, and there you have it. A nice spreadsheet with all the answers right in front of me! If only it were that simple. Data is just data, you have to ask it questions in order to start to get some answers.

The fantasy points for quarterbacks are the standard point for every 25 yards and four per touchdown, with -1 point for INTs and fumbles. I had in mind the baseline of a “good” performance, but I didn’t want to set a line on my own and conform it to everyone. That’s where Banter Discord members came in clutch. We came to a consensus (using our own discretion and mentioning some analysts takes like JJ Zachariason and the FF Ballers) that 16 points is a “good” performance when taking the QB position as a whole. That’s asking your QB to throw for 200 yards and 2 TD, nothing crazy. Anything under 15 points or less is “bad”.

Finally, I will reference QB1, QB2, and QB3 quite often. Keep in mind I’m talking about quarterbacks by ADP, not by their current seasonal PPG or standing. The point of this article isn’t to prove starting an in-season QB2 is better than a QB1 (say starting Kirk Cousins over Jayden Daniels). The point of this article is to see if for the rest of 2024 starting a quarterback drafted lower (or not at all) in a good matchup is better than using a high-end QB regardless of the matchup because we often are biased towards players we spend up on in the draft.

Now let’s dive in!

QB1’s Vs The Field

Fantasy QB1’s vary widely, from the elite QBs we draft to anchor our team to the fringe guys we think could either make a leap or are just solid and steady. QB2s and those drafted even later (QB3s are also part of this data set) usually have more questions surrounding their supporting cast, don’t have a rushing floor (Tua Tagovailoa), or have a rushing floor but their passing ability is questionable (looking at you, Daniel Jones).

On the season, QB1s have scored an average of 19.31 fantasy points per game. QB2s are at 15.87 PPG. So there is still an advantage towards QB1s when looking at QB1 and QB2 average scoring.

But let’s go a little deeper. Below is a chart of every game played in our data set among the top 36 drafted QBs with more than 15 attempts in a game. Each dot is an individual game by a QB at their positional ADP (overall QB1 drafted, overall QB2, etc), with an overall trendline included for reference.

The QBs that probably stand out the most at first glance are the QB5 and QB10 by ADP: CJ Stroud and Dak Prescott. Patrick Mahomes (QB2), Anthony Richardson (QB6), and Kyler Murray (QB8) also stand out with many performances below the 16-point mark.

But that’s just looking at raw point totals. It tells us some things, but it doesn’t tell us a whole lot. The whole point of streaming is spotting good matchups for quarterbacks who can exploit them in lieu of rostering an elite QB. So how have QB1s, QB2s, and QB3s fared against bottom 10 and top 10 DSTs? “Bottom” is a good matchup for quarterbacks, and “top” is a bad matchup for quarterbacks.

So on the surface, we see about what we’d expect to see, high-end QBs scoring more than lower-end QBs. But what is interesting to notice is that this year, it would actually be better, in general, to stream a QB3 in a good matchup than play a QB1 in a bad one!

But how often does a certain QB exploit a matchup? What are the hit rates for taking advantage of good matchups and pushing through bad ones?

Nothing surprising here. Quarterbacks generally do better in good matchups than in bad ones. But what is interesting to note is that once again, a QB3 in a good matchup is generally outpacing a QB1 in a bad matchup. There’s a higher likelihood your fantasy team will benefit from starting a QB2 or even QB3 in a good matchup vs a QB1 in a bad matchup.

Let’s not stop there, let’s go a little further! How often have quarterbacks been in good matchups vs bad ones?

So far this year, QB1s have actually faced better matchups at a higher rate than QB2s and QB3s. There is still a lot of football left to be played, and it’s fair to wonder if these numbers will start to even out as the season draws to a close. Simple math says it should be about 33% good matchups, 33% middle, and 33% bad. Sadly, due to time constraints, I can’t dive into the remaining schedule for all quarterback groups, but I wanted to give you some food for thought about your personal team and the QBs on your roster. Is it possible your high-end QB might be in for a rough stretch? What about the quarterbacks on the waiver wire or even your own bench?

So What Now?

I threw a ton of data at you and left you with some food for thought, but I don’t want to leave you feeling lost. So let’s break things down into some easy applications.

Streaming quarterbacks certainly carries risk, but it can also bring rewards to those who do it well and consistently. With how quarterbacks have been performing in 2024, it’s possible there has never been a better time for streaming.

QB1s as a whole are performing better than their later-drafted counterparts. However, they are struggling mightily against bad matchups and it’s been more beneficial to your fantasy team to stream other quarterbacks with better matchups during those weeks.

I’m not saying you should sit guys Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in a bad matchup. Those guys have been great this year, but even Allen has had his moments (7.3 points vs Indy early this season). What I am saying is that if you have a QB1 who has been a bit up and down, you might be better off streaming.

The point of this article was to combat the pre-draft bias we have toward starting high-end QB1s over guys who were lower drafted despite the matchup. Going back to the Mahomes and Stroud examples, because of the draft cost associated with them, you often felt compelled to start them over potentially better waiver wire options, and that could hurt your team.

So consider your options and look at who’s available. Let go of your biases and consider that maybe streaming the quarterback position in 2024 isn’t such a bad idea after all.