NFL Week 11 Start, Sit, and More!

What’s going on everyone?

I thought I would do our periodic review of how things played out the previous week. I felt pretty good about some things, but not so much about others.

Our quarterbacks last week, Goff, Jones, and Herbert finished QB 15, 13, and 8 respectively. Chuba was the RB2 on the week behind Bijan Robinson. Rico Dowdle and Tony Pollard were efficient on the ground, but both struggled in fantasy like we expected, finishing as the RB24 and 29.

It was not a great week for receivers. Jordan Addison, Brian Thomas Jr, Xavier Legette, and Ladd McConkey struggled. Josh Downs was alright but the highlight of my week was when our deep sleeper Devaugn Vele caught a touchdown. Slot receivers vs the Chiefs to the rescue! 🔥 

I didn’t make a prediction for CeeDee Lamb, but I did say I wanted to see how he’d do with Cooper Rush. It wasn’t good. I think talent wins out here, but Lamb’s ceiling has been capped. Our tight ends didn’t do us many favors either.

Well, with that lovely bit in mind, let’s see what is coming for us in Week 11!

Things to look out for in Week 11

Quarterbacks

🐎 Hopefully, this doesn’t bite me like when I brought up Daniel Jones vs Carolina’s pressure rate, but I think Bo Nix might have a nice game against a Falcons defense that has struggled to pressure QBs. Atlanta is giving up the seventh most points to quarterbacks this year and sixth most passing touchdowns.

🐏 Another streamer worth looking at this week is Matthew Stafford. The Patriots aren’t a scary team despite what the points allowed might imply. They aren’t giving up a lot of rushing production to QBs, helping them look more formidable from a fantasy perspective, but rushing is not Stafford’s MO anyway. Their defense has given up the 10th-highest NY/A and Stafford has two very good pass catchers on his team and a capable receiving back. And for what it’s worth…they are bottom-10 in pressure rate.

Running Backs

🐬 This might go without saying, but I think De’Von Achane will bounce back nicely this week. Miami might have won against the Rams, but Achane suffered a gross 3 yards per reception to go along with a 3.1 yards per carry. Vegas is an interesting matchup. When looking at them from a points perspective, they are a plus matchup for RBs. When trying to find their weakness, they really don’t “have one” or at least none that stands out. BUT, Miami should have this matchup in hand and Achane should see plenty of work as they rack up points.

🟡 Baltimore might be a tough matchup for running backs on the ground, but they allow the 6th most receptions and third most receiving yards to backs this year. That will benefit Jaylen Warren this week, who has at least two receptions in four straight games. It’s probably going to be a high-scoring game, and with the Ravens being a pass funnel offense, Warren finds himself in flex territory.

🐎 The Colts have gone back to Anthony Richardson against the Jets, and Jonathan Taylor should benefit. Taylor has averaged 5.4 YPC in four games with Richardson playing the majority of snaps, and 4.4 without. Now, to be fair, one of those games without ARich was against Minnesota, which has been a brutal matchup for running backs. Richardson should open the box up for him a bit more and help his rushing efficiency, hopefully compensating for a lack in receiving upside. But, it’s also possible the Colts want to protect Richardson and just get him in rhythm while feeding Taylor. New York has been awful against the run in the last few weeks (giving up 149 rush yd/gm), further boosting his stock.

⭐️ On the bright side, Rico Dowdle has the backfield to himself. It’s about time. On the downside, he has yet another horrible matchup this week. Houston is allowing the fifth-fewest points to running backs and the Dallas offense is looking…um…bad. They managed just six points against Philly last week and I’m not expecting much better against Houston who have a good front seven and should be able to make life hard.

Wide Receivers

🟡 I’ve already mentioned a Steeler, but I’m gonna mention another one right here. George Pickens needs to be in lineups this week. Baltimore has been giving up the most points to receivers this year by a wide margin and have allowed 16 touchdowns to WRs. In fact, in PPR formats, the Ravens are giving up more points to outside receivers alone (33.7) than all but 11 teams are giving up to receivers per game. He’s been the WR6 in half-PPR PPG since Russell Wilson started in Week 7 and could be in for a massive game this week.

🟠 Do you want to know a crazy stat? Since Week 7, in the same span that Pickens is the WR6 in PPG, Cedric Tillman is the WR2, behind only Ja’Marr Chase. The Saints have been bleeding yards to the position and Marshon Lattimore is now in Washington. Tillman has a rough schedule coming up, but he should be good to go against the Saints.

🇺🇸 It’s not a pretty-looking play, but DeMario Douglas is averaging 6.5 targets per game when Drake Maye is the primary quarterback. Los Angeles hasn’t been very easy on slot receivers, but with his workload, he could still make some noise.

⚡️ Cincinnati has been very tough on slot receivers. So while Ladd McConkey could struggle, Quentin Johnston could find himself having a nice game this week. He’s been a WR3 or better four out of eight games played, and a WR1 in two of those. The over/under is a healthy 47.5 for this game and Johnston will be needed to take the top off the Bengals defense.

Tight Ends

🐏 The second-year tight end Davis Allen has now played two games in a row as the primary tight end for the Rams. His snap share has gone up for four consecutive weeks and has a combined nine targets in the last two games. He will face off against a New England team that is middle of the pack against tight ends.

🦬 Dawson Knox isn’t a flashy name to throw out there, but he could be one of Josh Allen’s top targets on a week where Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid have been ruled out. Allen and Knox still have chemistry together even if Kincaid has come in and taken away the primary role and he has shown big-play ability in his small workload sample. Buffalo vs Kansas City should be a fun game this week, and Knox could find himself in the endzone if things break right.

That’s all for this week!

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