2023 Running Back Review

Hello again! We had a great championship round of the playoffs, seeing the 49ers make that comeback against Detroit was something else. San Fransisco has played very inconsistently but just well enough that they find themselves in Super Bowl rematch mode against Kansas City, who beat them on the biggest stage nearly four years ago.

On the fantasy football side of things, I’ve been looking into prospects and diving into production profiles looking ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft. I’ll include a quick graphic down at the bottom to show what will be gracing this newsletter and your socials alike!

We’re going to be diving into the running back position today and I can’t wait to get started!

News and Notes

• Former Rams DC Raheem Morris is now the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, bringing with him Rams’ passing game coordinator Zac Robinson.

The Top-12 Running Backs

• ⚒️ What can I say about Christian McCaffrey’s season that hasn’t already been said? He led the NFL in rushing, scored 21 touchdowns, and caught the third most passes by a running back in the NFL in 2023. He’s an integral part of the 49ers offense and showed no signs of slowing down. He’s in contention for, if not the unanimous choice, the first overall pick in fantasy drafts next season.

• 🐬 Raheem Mostert tied McCaffrey for scores, with 21 touchdowns, but he led the NFL with 18 rushing scores. There’s speculation that because of age and “excitement”, his teammate, De’Von Achane, will get drafted before him. And that is probably correct. However, should that happen, Mostert will present a great value in fantasy drafts in 2024. He’s missed three of 34 games in the last two years, and Achane has already missed more than that in a single season. No guarantee he stays healthy like this, but having a back to share the load will certainly help keep him healthy.

• 🐅 Finishing the season as the RB7, Joe Mixon just keeps getting things done. Even with Joe Burrow suffering an injury and the Bengals offense struggling to get going, Mixon just quietly finished the season as a top-12 running back. His efficiency wasn’t the best, but fantasy managers can’t complain but so much.

• Jacksonville was a bit of a disappointment this season, even so Travis Etienne was a bright spot for fantasy managers. At least for a while. Through week 8, he was the RB2, helped by touchdowns. But when they dried up, he was the RB23 from week 9 to the end of the season. He might not be worth the draft investment his fantasy finish implies, but could he be a second-round pick or a third-round value? Absolutely.

• 🛩️ The Jets were a dumpster fire, but Breece Hall somehow managed to finish the year as the RB6 in half-ppr formats. I say somehow but I think I know: receiving prowess. 53%, that’s right, fifty-three percent of his points came from receiving work. He had the second most receptions, the most targets, and the most yards through the air by a running back. With only four touchdowns. Should Aaron Rodgers make a comeback, I can’t imagine how good Hall might be in 2024.

• 🐏 Kyren Williams won the waiver wire add of the year in the Banter Awards, and rightfully so. The Rams used him as a workhorse back and he was second only to Christian McCaffrey in points per game among running backs. He averaged more points per game than all but five quarterbacks (one being Joe Flacco, who only started a handful of games). Even if the Rams bring in some help in the backfield, Kyren will be in the conversation to be a top-6 fantasy draft pick next season.

• 🏴‍☠️ Rachaad White was the definition of a volume running back. He was the reincarnation of 2021 Najee Harris. Averaged 3.6 yards per carry and was the second-worst among the RB1s in terms of points per opportunity. But he caught 91% of his targets, greatly boosting his receiving efficiency.

• After serving a three-game suspension, Alvin Kamara returned to action in week 4 and was the RB4 from that point on. He was the only running back who had more receptions than Breece Hall and did it in fewer games. He led all running backs in receptions per game with a mark of 5.8.

• Derrick Henry suffered from a season so inconsistent, that he either won your week or lost it. There was hardly an in-between feeling with him. In the fantasy playoffs, he finished as the RB53 and RB51 in two matchups against Houston, sandwiched around an RB4 performance against Seattle. He was an RB1 seven times and an RB3 or worse in 6 games.

• 🦁 It took some time, but Jahmyr Gibbs turned out to be the running back that he was drafted to be. He was excellent and efficient and garnered a top-10 RB target share. He’ll be a fixture in this offense for the foreseeable future.

• 🦬 The Bills decided to use James Cook more frequently and it paid dividends for his fantasy output. I had James Cook as a breakout this year (and Cam Akers…ahem…) and I’d say it paid off well for his preseason rank of RB30 based on FantasyPros consensus rankings.

• The only top-12 RB who was worse than Rachaad White on a points-per-opportunity basis? Bijan Robinson. What a relief to be freed from the burden that was Arthur Smith. Raheem Morris is in town, and he brought along Zac Robinson, who both come from the McVay coaching tree, at least somewhat. Bijan could see a more featured role and side note, I can’t wait to see what this does for the likes of Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Now if they could only get a QB.

Top 20 Running Backs and Honorable Mentions

Just like last week, I can’t detail every single player, but I can highlight some players who’s performances are noteworthy.

• 🐬 De’Von Achane finished as the RB22 despite having only 93 carries. No other top-36 running back had fewer than 139. Achane’s 7.8 yards per carry is the highest since 1950 among running backs with at least 90 carries (per Stathead). He had the second-highest points per opportunity (1.28 in .5PPR) among NFL running backs with 50 opportunities in 2023 (the one running back who beat out Achane was Jerick McKinnon). Only Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, and Achane had more than 1 point per opportunity among the top 36 RBs. In short, he had one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. Questions remain about his durability after an injury-plagued season, but you can’t deny his talent and ability.

• Narrowly missing out on his first top-12 RB finish of his career, Isiah Pacheco came in at RB13. His 17-game pace was over 1400 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. He caught 44 of the 49 passes thrown his way, good for a 90% catch rate.

• 🏙️ Saquon Barkley deserves better from the Giants. That’s all I can really say there. He was tasked with running into a brick wall constantly because he was the only weapon the New York had.

• If you remember our newsletter on ambiguous backfields, it’s worth looking at it again. It was discussed that team RB1s taken in the middle rounds were the ones to target. We discussed four different teams, and the RB1s were D’Andre Swift (Eagles), Alvin Kamara (Saints), Khalil Herbert (Bears), and De’Von Achane (Dolphins). Three of the four ended up being their team RB1 by season’s end, and Achane only played in 10 games. That trend is worth monitoring and something we will look at in the future as we approach the 2024 fantasy draft season.

• 🤠 You didn’t draft Tony Pollard to finish as the RB18. But that’s where he ended up. Or Austin Ekeler to finish as the RB29. Yuck.

• Carolina needs to improve everywhere in 2024, notably at WR. But, hear me out for a moment. This RB class is not that inspiring, that’s for certain. However, because RB isn’t in high demand and the class is likely to slip, what if they snag one in the third or fourth rounds? Chuba Hubbard was fine, but I think that’s all he’ll ever be. He was inefficient on the ground but decent through the air. But maybe someone like Will Shipley or Audric Estime will fall into their laps.

Wrapping Up

Before we close, I told you I’d share with you a rookie profile “snapshot”, feast your eyes on this nifty little graphic!

We’ll have a lot more as we get closer to the draft, but I just wanted to share a little bit of what’s in store as we get into the fantasy football offseason.

That will do it for this edition of Ballfield Banter! Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you next week with the 2023 wide receiver review!