Ambiguous Backfields of 2023

You’re in for a treat this week! You’re getting two newsletters! Ok, maybe a treat to some. Others you might be like “Oh, yay, great.” It was going to be two newsletters at some point, starting with the regular season. Which is next week anyway, so we’re starting early!

I wanted to just do a simple one today rather than the longer post I usually have, which is mainly due to the Jonathan Taylor trade saga. I didn’t want you, the reader, to wait a week to hear my take on it all.

So, we’re diving into a reader question as our topic! We’ve been talking running backs a lot in this newsletter, and today is no different. Let’s dive in!

Q: “What teams would you qualify as having ambiguous backfields?”

A: JJ Zachariason has a great article where he introduced the “Ambiguous RB1 Theory” which I highly recommend you check out. In that article, he gives the basis of the theory:

Alright, sweet, next question!

I’m kidding, I’m kidding. JJ found looking through ADP and points scored that team RB1s, the first back selected on a certain team, were better bets than their teammates going in the same range. I’ll expand on that with an example in a moment.

Backfields that I think qualify as ambiguous, just from an uncertainty standard of “who the heck is gonna get the ball?”, injury history, team context, and not solely based on JJ’s criterion include Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, and Miami. Some kinda-sorta ones are the Jets, Indianapolis, and Seattle.

We aren't sure what will happen with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. Both are talented and will be fine for fantasy, but how will things shake out? What about Seattle with Walker and Charbonnet, aka Lightning and Thunder? Indianapolis is a wildcard because of the Taylor situation. I’ll cover that in the newsletter later this week, but for the sake of this article, what if Taylor gets traded?

The main difference is the cost to acquire guys like Walker, Charbonnet, Cook, and Hall. For the most part, they’re on the expensive side and are “known” assets we feel have a clear path to production.

It’s the others who we struggle with. The one’s where it could be anyone. So, let’s get to it!

🦅 PHI: Swift ADP 62, Penny ADP 108, Gainwell ADP 210

🐻 CHI: Herbert ADP 110, Foreman ADP 165, Johnson ADP 186

⛪️ :NO: Kamara ADP 72, Williams ADP 102, Miller ADP 166

🐬 MIA: Achane ADP 114, Mostert ADP 149, Wilson ADP 176

This list is admittedly painful. I think the Gainwell ADP is a little out of sync because he is going much higher elsewhere, but still the third back nonetheless. I love Gainwell this season and see a path for him to get work. But remember the team RB1 being a better bet than teammates in the same range? That would be Swift over Penny in this case. I still think Gainwell has a shot, and ADP can change quickly, but so far Swift is where the data leans.

The same can be said for Khalil Herbert and De’Von Achane. Achane is the fantasy darling of the offseason, so his ADP is no surprise. I really like Roschon Johnson and Foreman suffered an injury that may help Roschon’s ADP, but it’s unlikely he will overtake Herbert.

Kamara has a suspension to deal with, so the veteran Williams is the favorite to lead the backfield till his return. Miller has made some incredible plays in the preseason and will get a shot early on thanks to the suspension.

Apparently, I’m a sucker for team RB3s, unless you’re De’Von Achane. What can I say? Herbert is more of a bruiser while Roschon, to me, is a more complete back. Gainwell does not have the injury history of Penny and Swift who get hurt seemingly every time they touch the ball. Miller has a chance to shine because of the Kamara suspension.

More than most years, I’d say, there are paths for backs to get work that might not usually crop up. So it will be an interesting year for the ambiguous theory. Will the team RB1s be the guys we all should have gone for rather than the gut feel? Time will tell!

Some final thoughts…

I like trying to find the diamonds in the rough. It’s fun when you hit, but it’s tough. But don’t stop trying. Don’t stop learning. Grow and have fun, it’s fantasy football!

I’ve got some updated rankings for you, and don’t forget to check out the Discord!

And JJ if you ever read this, please don’t hurt me for going off script of the criterion in your article. Deeply respect you and your work! For those of you who haven’t seen JJ’s work, look him up @LateRoundQB on Twitter (X? whatever) and give him and his podcast a follow.

See you all later in the week!