Running Back Sleepers, Busts, and Breakouts

We have a bit of a long one today, but I’ll try to keep it as short as I can without sacrificing useful info. And even though we’ve got a lot of ground to cover, I want to give a quick synopsis of what we’re going to do.

First, we’ll cover sleepers. Sleepers are also hard to spot nowadays because there is just so much info out there, pretty much everyone knows a little bit about every player. So the way I’m defining it for this article (and ones to follow) is that they players who are usually liked by myself and the general public, I just think they’re being undervalued. No one thinks they are “bad” but they may not see how they can become “good”. I hesitate to say “great” because rarely does a sleeper end up an elite asset, but they can be absolutely solid contributors.

Secondly, we have breakouts and busts. In this section, breakouts will be a little different than sleepers. I think sleepers are guys who are already solid and can finish better than their ADP implies. Breakouts are guys who I see a path for them to become much better than their ADP cost. So like a sleeper but turn it up a notch or two. Busts are guys who have been good and are drafted to be good, but have some red flags due to situation, age, or other factors, and could sink your squad.

All of my ADP Data is from Sleeper and the RB rank is Fantasy Pros ECR PPR rankings.

🐦️ James Connor - ADP 65.5 - ECR RB23 🐦️ 

There’s no one else in the backfield that can challenge him for touches. Plain and simple. Running back is as much a volume and opportunity game as it is a talent one. Talent no doubt helps get you opportunity, but sometimes lack of depth forces coaches to feed their running backs because they’re all that’s there.

Connor is not a bad running back. Injury history? Yes, he has that, but he’s finished as a top-36 RB or better in each of the past five seasons with two top-twelve finishes. Last season, after returning from injury from weeks 9-17, he was the overall RB4. If you’re worried that he’ll suffer from Arizona not being good in 2023, remember they had the third overall pick at one point in the 2023 NFL draft. It’s not like they were good last year either.

Brian Robinson - ADP 99.5 - ECR RB33

I already wrote a feature piece on why you should target Brian Robinson in a previous newsletter, which you can go back and read. For those who missed it, Robinson’s role in the offense seems secure with plenty of volume and opportunity. If he can increase his receiving work even a little bit, solid bonus.

That’s not enough? I’ve got more. Remember the WR touchdown regression discussion? I did the same process of finding expected touchdowns for running backs using attempts, receptions, and total opportunities. What I found is that Robinson scored three fewer times than expected. So he could see an uptick in scoring. And by the way, I’m bullish on the Washington offense. As long as they don’t bench Sam Howell when he makes a mistake and let him grow and develop, I think we’re in for a surprise this year.

🪶 Zach Charbonnet - ADP 103.7 - ECR RB41 🪶 

Kenneth Walker is currently ranked RB17 in ECR and being drafted 37.4 overall. I think the points gap between Walker and Charbonnet will be much closer than the ranks imply by the end of the season. Charbonnet has skills that Walker does not, and vice versa. Kind of a lightning and thunder situation with Charbs as the thunder.

But one key area I (and others, I might add) expect Charbonnet to be used more than Walker is the passing game, which is extremely valuable. Charbonnet has the receiving work resume Walker lacks. Taking the projected passing downs back for cheap? Yes, please.

One quick note: I don’t like using the term “bust” because I don’t really think there are many complete “busts” outside of injury, which are impossible to predict. Christian McCaffrey was lights out when he did play in the 2020-21 seasons, but he missed a lot of time. So bust for me is just a guy who, unlike the sleeper or breakout, I see a path where he underperforms or disappoints you based on where you drafted him. I may not have him ranked as a bust, but the potential is there.

BUST: Kenneth Walker - ADP 37.4 - ECR RB17

The flip side of the Zach Charbonnet coin. Walker relies heavily on rushing work and breakaway runs. Charbonnet is bigger and had a decent receiving resume in college. So not only is Charbonnet the current favorite to get passing down work, he could vulture touchdowns or even become the main goalline back for the Seahawks. Walker is a very talented runner, but with his skillset being a bit narrow, there’s definite bust potential.

🐏 BREAKOUT: Cam Akers - ADP 63.9 - ECR RB22 🐏 

This might be stretching the “breakout” because we’ve seen Akers perform before. But it’s been in short spurts. In 2020, it was weeks 12-17. Last year it was weeks 13-18. Some of those weeks we don’t care about for fantasy (week 17 in 2020 and week 18 in 2022 respectively), but from an NFL perspective, he was involved and good. That stretch in 2020? He was the RB18. What about 2022? He was the overall RB4. His Achilles injury is behind him now, and he has little competition for touches in what looks like a very condensed Rams offense.

BUST: Dameon Pierce - ADP 51.1 - ECR RB20

Oh boy, here they come, the Pierce truthers! I don’t have a problem with Pierce himself, in fact, I have him on some of my squads. The problem is I don’t expect much from the Texans this year. Pierce may struggle to find the endzone this season, hurting his upside. I like C.J. Stroud, but he is a rookie, and rookie QBs don’t always lead the most consistent offenses. Think Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, and the like. Some were due to bad coaching, sure, but we just don’t know what to expect with Houston.

🦬 BREAKOUT: James Cook - ADP 87.3 - ECR RB30 🦬 

A grand total of 194 carries and 60 targets were vacated between Singletary’s and Zack Moss’s departures. Damien Harris is not a receiving back, and Nyhiem Hines was barely involved last season. I think a 160 carry, 60 target season is in the cards for Cook (he had 89 and 32 last season, respectively), and that could easily be a modest expectation. Using his efficiency stats from last season, he’d end up around 12.2 fantasy points per game, good for RB24 last season. Not a huge jump from his ECR but it’s also a conservative projection in my mind.

Hope you all enjoyed this little dive into running backs! I tried to be as concise as possible but still give you enough information to make informed choices in your drafts. Hopefully, you gleaned something from it. If not, well I guess I’ll just have to try harder next time to learn you something 😉. We’ve got wide receivers coming next week, so get ready!

If you’d like to get ahold of me for any questions or suggestions, or just want to reach out, my DM’s are open on Twitter and you can also email me at [email protected]!