An Alabama RB Taking Command

Happy Independence Day! I know that today will be full of cookouts, red, white, and blue, parties, and fireworks. But, I figured why not start off with some early morning fantasy football too? Since, you know, it’s the most-watched American sport? Eagle screams. You here that? The sound of freedom!

Before the season starts, I wanted to not only give you fantasy football draft advice, quick thoughts on who you should/shouldn’t draft, or diving into data. I wanted to dive in-depth into a player or two. And the difficulty is, how the heck do you narrow down who to write about? There are SO many choices!

I could go with Garrett Wilson, who I almost considered here. But I don’t need to convince anyone to draft him. I’d just be reinforcing the issue.

There are plenty of players I considered. Wideouts, tight ends, running backs, quarterbacks. But unlike in years past, I don’t have a “flag plant” player this year where it’s a hill I’m dying on.

When I first started writing fantasy football, it was Darnell Mooney. Mooney finished his rookie season as the WR49 in PPR. Going into 2021, I was drafting him everywhere. I wrote an article in which I said he could finish as a WR2. He finished WR23 overall (for those who don’t know, a WR2 is any WR who finishes the season between WR13 and WR24 in fantasy scoring). Bang!

Last year, I was drafting a lot of Trevor Lawrence and Gerald Everett. I didn’t think Lawrence’s rookie year was foreshadowing how he’d do in the future. Everett had been solid in stretches as a tight end with the Rams and Seahawks, but I thought he was in a good situation in LA. Both worked out well.

I’ve had my misses too. I thought Dan Arnold showed us something in Lawrence’s rookie year and Evan Engram was just too inconsistent to trust, so I backed Arnold. If you don’t know Dan Arnold's name, you know how well that decision went.

But I did settle on a player, and even though he’s not a “flag plant” like those other guys, I still like him a lot. He’s a guy that always confuses me in mock drafts because I’ll see “B.Robinson - RB” and I’ll wonder how Bijan is still available. And he isn’t, it’s actually Brian Robinson, my 3rd ranked RB in the 2022 draft class.

Brian Robinson was an older prospect coming out of college, but I wasn’t sure of his chances to find playing time in Washington with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic on the team. But I still liked him enough to draft him in several dynasty leagues.

And then it looked like he was going to get the starting job going into 2022. I already liked him pre-draft, but in the pre-season, my fears about his playing time vanished. I was fully on the hype train. Then tragedy struck.

He was shot twice in the leg just before the start of the season as a victim of a carjacking attempt. Now it wasn’t a question of whether could he be the starter, but could he even play?

He missed four games. That’s it. I’m not an NFL athlete, but I know if I got shot twice in the leg there’s no way I’m playing a month later. But he did. And while his efficiency wasn’t where we’d like it to be, there are still reasons to be optimistic about year two.

For starters, after his game against the Titans, he averaged nearly 18 carries a game. He managed only 3.95 yards per carry on those opportunities, but we’ll take the volume.

And he forced 60 missed tackles on his touches, good for a 28% juke rate. That’s better than Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler. Does that mean I’m saying he’s better than them? No. It’s just to show where his numbers are vs some of the elite backs.

It’s a good thing his juke rate was solid because he faced stacked boxes at the 13th-highest rate among running backs.

A bummer for Robinson is his receiving work is extremely spotty. He managed only 9 receptions on 12 targets for 60 yards and a score in 2022. Even with the meager receiving work, from weeks 5-12, he was averaging 18.6 total touches per game (attempts + receptions). Najee Harris averaged 18.9 in that same span.

Once again, I’m not advocating Robinson be valued next to Najee Harris or Tony Pollard. He doesn’t have the receiving workload of either back and needs to up his efficiency. Plus there are questions about the Washington offense. But even if he only sees a marginal increase in passing down work, I’ll take it. And here’s why: where you’re taking him, you’re not asking Robinson to be a top-18 running back.

He provides stability at a point in the draft where consistent volume is hard to come by. He’s the perfect RB3 with low-end RB2 upside. He may not be the type to win you a week, but he’s not going to lose it. If you go into fantasy drafts and select a bunch of volatile players, you’ll need that kind of stability. I think Robinson gives you that.

It’s not just volume alone that makes me feel good about Robinson, it’s also because I feel Washington isn’t going to be as bad as people think. I’m high on Sam Howell and have been since he came out of UNC. He flashed dual-threat ability in his lone start in 2022, and I think he’s going to surprise people. He has a solid cast of supporters, from new OC Eric Bieniemy to Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Antonio Gibson, and Robinson.

All in all, Robinson is a fine back. He’s not the most explosive or efficient, but he can go out and get the job done. I think he finishes above his current draft cost, thanks largely due to the volume he’s likely to receive as at least the RB-1A if not straight-up RB1 of the offense. And who knows, maybe he takes a second-year leap as well?

That’s it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter! Happy Independence Day! Go have some fun with friends and fireworks and thanks for reading! And by the way, we’re just getting started with preseason content, so hold on to your hats!

Have a question or suggestion? You can reach me at [email protected] or DM me on Twitter @GarrettBFF!