Cooper Kupp Injury Fallout

Today’s newsletter will be short and sweet. Nothing special. I just felt that having a newsletter to cover the injury setback for Cooper Kupp was necessary, given how it’s taken the fantasy football world by storm.

First off, it sucks. I get it more than you know, he’s on my Scott Fish Bowl squad. I missed the SFB playoffs last year due to injuries completely derailing my season so I’m starting off on the right foot once again.

🐏 Cooper Kupp Injury Fallout

Hamstring injuries are extremely tricky. But, it seems more often than not, they tend to linger throughout the season. And that’s probably what will happen to Kupp. When he plays, he’ll be just fine. One of the top receivers in football. Just how much he plays, that is up in the air.

He is labeled day-to-day, but the fact that we are still over a week away from the Rams’ first game and Van Jefferson is being called upon for No.1 duties isn’t a good sign. It could be anywhere from missing a game to missing several, we just don’t know right now. Either way, he’s going to miss time.

Jefferson received a bump up in my rankings, and honestly, I probably need to move him higher up, I just can’t quite get myself there. He was the overall WR36 in 2021, the same season Kupp won the NFL triple-crown. So he can produce alongside elite production. But with defensive coverage focused on him, I’m not sure if he’s going to go from 9 PPR points per game to say, 15 PPG just on the basis of Kupp being out. Maybe a solid 12-13 PPG range. That’s still a solid starter if your roster is in need. When Kupp comes back though, I see him as the number three target. Behind who?

Tyler Higbee, that’s who. The man I predicted in my previous newsletter to go for 90 receptions and 7 touchdowns. And while my newsletter was being written as the injury update came out, I wrote it down on paper to be included well before the news. Just before you go saying otherwise 😉.

He won’t be a 1-for-1 replacement for Kupp, even though Kupp is a “slot receiver”. Their ADOT is just not the same area since Matthew Stafford has been in town. Higbee saw a lot of dump-off kind of usage, his ADOT was all the way down at 3.0 yards last year. Of the 29 tight ends that had 50 or more targets in 2023, that was the worst mark of all of them by nearly two yards. I think it was an outlier usage for Higbee last season, and I expect a bounce back in target depth department. Higher ADOT = further down the field targets = more yards = more fantasy points.

The only other Ram that interests me is Puka Nacua. The rookie is much bigger than the incumbent Tutu Atwell, who weighs as much as a real-life tutu, and has a decent college production profile at a run-heavy BYU. Nothing prolific, but solid. Nacua received a lot of buzz during training camp and the preseason, so I’m willing to take the shot on him over Atwell, who hasn’t shown much in his two years as a pro. I don’t think this affects the running backs all that much, so I’m drafting them about the same as I would otherwise.

As far as drafting Kupp, he’s going to fall into the second round, maybe even the third. It’s all about your risk tolerance. Risky and looking for upside? Take the shot. If it pays off you got a Top-4 WR where you shouldn’t have. Not so risky and want something more stable? Hold off on drafting him unless he slips to round 3 or avoid him altogether. It’s going to be a tough road ahead for Kupp and fantasy managers, myself included, but it’s one that could yield many rewards if it breaks right.

Closing Thoughts

That’s going to do it for this week of Ballfield Banter! I really came at you guys this week with three newsletters instead of the usual one or two, but I felt this was necessary. We’ve got football next week, but in the meantime, enjoy your Labor Day weekend!