The Year of the Rookie

Hello everyone!

We have a long one today. I skipped any news and notes section so that we can dive right in after the introduction.

Make sure to bookmark this article in your browser (which if you didn’t know you could read this on the web, you can! Just Google Ballfield Banter!) to refer back to when thinking about the 2023 rookies and how we’re looking heading into 2024.

I’ve organized it in such a way that it should be easy to navigate to the section you’d like to read if you decide to take it in over multiple sittings. If you want to get it in one go, be my guest. Grab a snack and a drink of choice and get comfy. 😉 

The Year of the Rookie

We had quite the season for rookie performances. While we can’t get to them all, I want to highlight some of the major breakouts and performances we saw, while also bringing up some under-the-radar guys that you should look to acquire going into 2024.

Running Backs

🦁 Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs finished as RB1’s, as the RB9 and RB10 respectively. The last time we had multiple rookies finish as top 12 options at RB was in 2020 with Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. De’Von Achane was the RB24 despite playing in only 11 games. Even though he played second fiddle to Derrick Henry, Tyjae Spears managed to finish as an RB3 after tying for ninth in receptions by a running back. 🔥 

We were worried about Gibbs's slow start until Week 7 when everything changed. From that point on, he was the RB3 in football. Detroit is only heading up, and Gibbs's role will only increase, for those who have him on dynasty rosters, rejoice!

As disappointing as Bijan Robinson’s season was, he was still the RB9 when all was said and done. The new head coaching hire of Dennis Allen from the McVay system of a feature back is a death knell to Allgeier (who was the RB34 in 2023 by the way) but a welcome sight to Robinson. Bijan actually had eight RB1 finishes and 12 that were RB2 or better. What killed you was: 1. expectations, and 2. inconsistent usage. Arthur Smith also (mostly) holding him out for injury without letting anyone know was a killer, but not Bijan’s fault. Should this coaching staff actually use their highly talented first-round picks like Smith should have, we should see a bump in Bijan’s production (not to mention Kyle Pitts and Drake London). He’s probably second-round material in redraft if not the first round by the time the season rolls around.

🐬 Of the 174 running backs with at least 90 carries in their first season in the last 20 years, De’Von Achane’s 7.8 yards per attempt leads the field by a whopping 1.4 yards. He’s an electric player who will always have injury concerns because of his small frame, but when he’s healthy and playing, he’s a surefire start in your lineup. 🐬 

🛢️ Spears was tied for the ninth most receptions by a running back in 2023. His usage in the two-minute drill was exceptional, with a 93% snap share in those situations. The tricky thing about Spears is that he’s a popular breakout candidate, so his price is already at its peak in dynasty. If you want to make a move for him, wait until some rumors surface about them adding another back or retaining Derrick Henry and see if you can get him cheaper. I get stuff like that might make you uneasy to buy as well, but let’s face it, unless you’re Breece Hall (even he had Dalvin Cook concerns last year), Jonathan Taylor, or Christian McCaffrey, odds are there will be rumors that your team is bringing in another back. 🔥 

Wide Receivers

🐏 Where else could we start other than Puka Nacua? I traded for him in a dynasty league after Week 1 hoping I could shoot for the moon and not fall on my face doing it, and I struck gold. I suffered several QB injuries (it was a 2QB league) and even so, won the chip. You’re darn right if you assume Puka was a big part of that. He is now the NFL rookie receiving yards record holder with 1,486. He has the third most targets by a rookie WR in NFL history, behind Terry Glenn and Anquan Boldin. If that’s not enough, he broke Jaylen Waddle’s receptions record as well.

It’s hard to go much further up than the overall WR4, especially when you’re competing against the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St.Brown. Let’s not forget that A.J. Brown and Cooper Kupp are still very good wide receivers. So now might be a time to sell while the value is high. However, fantasy football should be fun, and it doesn’t look like Puka is going anywhere anytime soon. I have zero, I repeat zero problems with you holding him because when you find a guy like him, you just keep him.

🛶 Believe it or not, Jordan Addison actually finished as the WR1 on a given week twice during 2023, tied with Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb, and more than Amon-Ra. Does that mean I think he’s better? No. Does that mean I think he’s good? Absolutely. The Vikings found their running mate alongside Justin Jefferson. He feels like a low-end WR2 in redraft formats with upside. ⚔️ 

🧀 Two spots behind Addison was the WR23 on the year: Jayden Reed. I think that his season was good for two main reasons: he’s an actually good WR, and the injuries around him forced him into the spotlight. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontavion Wicks, and Luke Musgrave all missed time this season. I think the main trio for Green Bay next year will be Watson, Reed, and Doubs, but they have an embarrassment of riches at the position for sure. Because I did like what I saw once Watson worked his way back from injury initially, I’ve struggled with how to value Reed. Right now, he’s WR3 territory for me with the potential to move up should things become less crowded.

We’ve only talked about the top three receivers so far! We’ve yet to mention anything of Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, and Tank Dell.

🐄 I will mention the other guys, but I want to focus on Dell right now. I don’t think Dell is injury-prone. Smaller frames on WRs aren’t the same as smaller frames on RBs. Dell suffered a freak injury while trying to help his teammate plunge into the endzone. That’s it. Now, how good could his season have been? 🤔 

If we take out his season-ending game where he played a handful of snaps, he would have been on a 17-game pace of 80 receptions, 1,205 yards, and 12 TDs. That alone would have been the WR8. If you add in his (albeit small) rushing production, he moves up to WR6. I’d be trying to acquire Tank Dell this offseason if I can get him for a reasonable price. Heck, I’m ok with slightly overpaying. Many see him as a top-15 dynasty WR at the moment. I haven’t been able to really dive into rankings myself just yet, but that seems like a decent ranking for the young talent. 📈 

🐦️ JSN faced a lot of target competition in Seattle alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As Lockett continues to reach the final years of his career, I expect JSN to rise. He only finished as a WR2 three times, but if you look past the numbers, the talent was there. He made some incredible highlight grabs for the Seahawks. If someone is worried about his fantasy finish and panicking about JSN’s future, float out offers.

🐦️ Zay Flowers feels like the kind of player who will float around as a WR2/WR3 type of player year in and year out. Jakobi Meyers style. He’s not going to hurt your team, but I doubt he’s going to offer a league-winning upside. I understand he’s a rookie, but he played with the league MVP and was competing with Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham for targets for large chunks of the season. Mark Andrews was there for a while, sure, but other rookies simply finished better despite their target competition being better or about the same as Flowers. 💐 

🏹 Our 2023 screen pass specialist award goes to Rashee Rice. Out of 83 WRs with 45 or more targets this season, Rice’s ADOT was 82nd at a paltry 5.1. However, Mahomes likes him and trusts him, so I will as well. I think once they have another option to help out on the outside while Rice continues to develop his route tree, we’ll see his ADOT rise. He might not be a WR1 in fantasy, but he can still be a valuable depth piece on a roster.

Tight Ends

🦁 Last week I wrote up just how good Sam LaPorta was in 2023. I won’t rehash that again, but basically, he’s very good. A rookie finishing as the overall TE1 is just not something you hear about. He’s going to be around the top of the tight end position for years to come.

🦬 Dalton Kincaid saw a massive amount of hype leading up to the season, and though it took an injury to Dawson Knox for him to get his chance, he showed up big time when he got it. From Week’s 7-12, he was the overall TE5. Knox will still be there in 2024, but I think Kincaid can step in as the No.2 target behind Stefon Diggs next season.

The Packers duo of Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft is intriguing. Musgrave has the edge in points per game over the season, but Kraft did well when Musgrave was out. When Musgrave missed time from Weeks 12-17, Kraft was the TE7 in half-ppr formats. I lean toward Musgrave right now because he seemed to be who the Packers favored, but stashing Kraft based on his potential is not a bad idea at all. 🧀 

Rookie Sleepers and Names to Remember

So who are some guys you should keep tabs on throughout the offseason? I’ll quickly go over some names.

Running Back

Zach Charbonnet and Roschon Johnson are two guys I would be keeping an eye on this offseason. Charbs may not have had the best of seasons, but he still showed promise as a bruiser and I think can complement Kenneth Walker. Some of his efficiency stats don’t look fantastic, but I’m also willing to give him another go. Roschon might be buried behind Khalil Herbert, but he could be in for an expanded role in 2024 regardless.

Wide Receiver

I might be on an island here, but I like Demario Douglas. I think he’s a good player. I doubt he’ll be a difference-maker, but a WR3? I think that’s well within the realm of possibilities for him.

🐴 I’m also a big fan of Josh Downs. His 19% targets per route run is in line with Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, JSN, and Christian Watson. He was 19th in YAC according to Player Profiler. He was good against man and zone defense. Simply, I think you can get him at a value.

Dontayvion Wicks is another guy you can get for cheap that might break out. He’s buried in the Packers’ depth chart but there’s a whole offseason for things to shake out in his favor.

Tight End

I mentioned most of the fantasy-relevant tight ends already, however I did not mention Michael Mayer. I think he’s fine, but it was very tough to judge whether or not I want him on my rosters when other players produced so much more. I understand he had a rookie QB for most of the year and Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to compete with, but finishing as the TE33 does not sit well with me regardless.

That will do it for this lengthy rookie recap. When so many rookies made an impact in one way or another, what choice did I have? I gotta make sure to cover my bases! Make sure to come back again next week! We’ll be talking about free agency!