Wide Receiver Sleepers, Busts, and Breakouts

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I’ve got a new section going in at the bottom this week: news and notes. I don’t want it to distract from the main content of the newsletter, the “meat” if you will, so I’ll have it placed towards the bottom for now. I’ll attach a link to the news, a sentence blurb or two, and that will be all!

So this week we’re diving into wide receivers. This was supposed to be last week's newsletter, but DeAndre Hopkins had to go and mess everything up with my primary breakout candidate Treylon Burks by joining the Titans.

But if you think Burks isn’t in this newsletter, think again. We’re still gonna talk about him, just maybe not as highly as before. But I’ve got some sleepers and breakouts who you might be familiar with, especially readers of this newsletter.

We’re also going to talk busts, and it’s going to be an interesting one for sure, I’m going to rile some people up once again, I think especially with a certain 49er.

The Expert Consensus Ranking is from Fantasy Pros and the ADP is from Sleeper. For Treylon Burks, the ADP is from Underdog, as their ADP is updated every couple of days to show a “live market value” in a way.

Diontae Johnson - ADP WR33, ECR WR34

I think people are forgetting just how good Dionate Johnson is. Yes, he has his drop issues. But I think it’s overstated. For example, who do you think has had more drops over the past two years? Dionate or Jamarr Chase? It’s Chase with 22 vs Diontae’s 12. But we’re not afraid of Chase, are we?

Before I continue, DJ is not Chase. I’m not arguing that point. My point was I think fantasy players fear drops too much. And let’s not forget Diontae was the overall WR8 in PPR formats in 2021, that’s not that long ago.

Not only that, but Diontae is going to catch at LEAST one touchdown this year, and likely much more. He scored 6 fewer touchdowns than he should have last year, and Pittsburgh should be better in year two of Kenny Pickett.

Darnell Mooney - ADP WR56, ECR WR54

Mooney is just undervalued in my opinion. I have him ranked much higher, on the edge of WR3/4 territory. He’s produced when an alpha WR has been on the Bears (Allen Robinson) and I think he can do it again. I’m not in on Chase Claypool this year, I’ve seen enough of that.

After suffering along with the rest of the Bears pass catchers in weeks 1-3 of 2022, Mooney was the overall WR22 from weeks 4-11. He injured his ankle early on in week 12 against the Jets and missed the rest of the season. Mooney is a capable number two, and if Justin Fields takes a step forward like we all believe he will, it’s only logical that his pass catchers do too.

BREAKOUT: Treylon Burks - ADP WR42, ECR WR37

So Burks fell in my rankings due to Hopkins’ signing with the Titans, as expected. But he didn’t fall that far. And that's because I think we’re in for a season similar to what happened in Tennessee in 2020 when they had AJ Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith.

Brown finished the season as the WR12, Davis as the WR30, and Jonnu the TE16. Late-career Hopkins probably won’t reach early AJB heights, and Burks is better than Davis. So adjust Hopkins down and Burks up a tad, there you have it, not as bad as we thought for Burks. I know it’s not a 1-for-1 analysis and the situation isn’t exactly the same but that is the type of season I envision.

Burks is also in great shape coming into the season and had earned the praise of his quarterback, coaches, and even defensive teammates. He’s got just as many 50+ receiving yard games as popular breakout candidate (for now) Khadarius Toney in eight fewer games. I think Burks can finish as a WR3 with the potential to finish much higher if Hopkins were to miss time.

BUST: Deebo Samuel - ADP WR16, ECR WR16

I just can’t do it with Samuel this season. I get that 2022 was not his year, he dealt with injuries. Heck in 2021 he led me to a championship when he was healthy. He has the talent to be one of the best receivers in the game. But I just can’t do it.

First, it’s the emergence of Brandon Aiyuk. The dude can ball and finished as the WR14 last year. Second, the team added Christian McCaffrey, limiting Deebo’s rushing upside, plus that dude is just otherworldly good at football. Third, there’s still George Kittle to take away work as well.

Whether injured or not, Samuel’s per-game stats fell off last year. His YPR, yards per game, touchdowns, and catch percentage all fell. There’s a lot of competition for touches in this offense and I don’t know if it’s gonna get any better for Samuel in 2023. He’ll still be a usable piece in fantasy, but I want him as my WR3 instead of my second WR.

BREAKOUT: Jahan Dotson - ADP WR38, ECR WR35

Unlike Diontae Johnson, Jahan Dotson caught too many touchdowns. He was extremely efficient with his opportunities I’ll give him that. But I’m not projecting him to bust this year. While he won’t maintain his efficiency, he can make up for that with more volume. More volume = more scoring. Why do I think this?

He’s a talented, sure-handed, young wideout on an offense that I, for better or worse, am putting my chips on this off-season. I’m a big believer in Sam Howell, and think he can do well in this offensive system. And if we’re being honest, I’m not so sure Dotson is the 2 to Terry McLaurin’s 1. It could very well be a 1A-1B situation.

BUST: Mike Williams - ADP WR30, ECR WR26

Williams’ ADP is much closer to my actual ranking than the ECR is, so I’ll have him as a mild bust. He’s a very inconsistent wideout, with massive weeks followed up by nothingness. He can both win and lose you weeks. But that’s not the only reason I have him low. First off, it’s nearly a guarantee he misses games. You’re injury prone till you’re not, they say, but I haven’t seen much to tell me otherwise about Williams.

But the Chargers also drafted Quinten Johnston out of TCU. QJ is a talented receiver that can do what Williams does but with more yards-after-catch ability. He may not usurp Williams in the pecking order just yet but he’s more of a threat than what the Chargers had last year as their WR3.

News and Notes

Very quickly wanted to go over some things around the NFL.

Rashod Bateman on the PUP list: not good for the young wideout. The Ravens No.1 WR spot is still up for grabs, but it’s yet another setback.

Elijah Moore getting buzz: Moore has the talent to wrestle the Browns No.2 wideout job away from Donovan Peoples-Jones, which is very love-hate for me. I love DPJ and want him in Cleveland long term but also really like Moore and want him to become the next big Browns WR.

Kadarius Toney is hurt, again: Good grief if he could just stay healthy, he might be really, really good. But he just hasn’t stayed healthy.

Deneric Prince, next Chiefs back? Possibly? I like his explosiveness at least. He wasn’t a receiving back in college but has been showing off hands in all offseason. Maybe they have their next Jerrick McKinnon.

That is going to do it for this week’s newsletter! Thanks for reading and I’ll see you next week! We’ll be diving into QBs and the importance of rushing, and all of August I’ll help you get ready for your drafts with strategy talk plus tips and tricks!