Trevor Lawrence Returns

Right off the bat, this will be a longer newsletter. I will recap this week, and then cover three Thanksgiving Day games. Sorry Black Friday matchup, you’ll be mentioned in passing. So make sure to bookmark this email or webpage however you’d like to do it, so you can come back and read and refresh any time!

In most leagues other than dynasty, trade deadlines are past and you are now surfing the waiver wire. If you can still trade, don’t be afraid to use that avenue to acquire talent. I realize I don’t often cover trades here, but I can only do so much a week, I’m a mere mortal after all.

🦃 Since I usually write Friday’s newsletter on Thursday night and Thursday is Thanksgiving week, there won’t be a Friday newsletter. But no fear, I’ll have something for everyone on Saturday, albeit potentially a brief newsletter because I’ll still be in a food coma. 🦃 

There is a huge amount of stuff to get to, especially at the quarterback position, so let’s jump right in!

News and Notes

• 🐅 The quarterback apocalypse of 2023 just doesn’t stop. Joe Burrow is now out with a season-ending injury. The good news is Jake Browning, to me, didn’t look half bad replacing the Bengals franchise QB. It’s a definite downgrade to Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon and adds insult to (literal) injury to an already lost season for Tee Higgins. But, I don’t think it’s as if they lose all their value.

• 🔥 Some good news: Will Levis completed 76% of his passes and threw two touchdowns and no picks. The bad news? He only threw 17 passes for 158 yards and did nothing on the ground. He’s been the definition of a pocket passer and without any rushing production, he’ll need to regularly throw for +250 yards and two scores to have a good fantasy day.

• 🛫 Outside of a couple of games, Breece Hall has NOT run well this season. His season-long average of 4.6 YPC is being held up by two massive games against Buffalo and Denver. For the past five weeks, he has barely averaged three yards per rush. I don’t doubt the talent, good things happen when he gets in space (such as when used as a receiver) but the Jets offensive line has struggled this season.

• 🎖️ Sam Howell (regardless of Monday night's football results) will have finished as a QB1 in more weeks than he has not. Seven weeks to four, in fact. Two of those four he was the QB13 and QB14.

• 🏙️ Kenny Pickett has started every game for the Steelers this season (10) and has thrown six touchdowns. Tommy DeVito has played in five this season, three of which were not starts, and has six passing touchdowns. He took advantage of a beatable Washington secondary and will face the Patriots next.

• 🐄 Was I the only one who didn’t realize Devin Singletary’s nickname is Motor? How have I not heard this and why has not been getting the ball more with that kind of nickname?!?

• 🐆 Trevor Lawrence is back! And it happened right as I benched him! Yay! In all seriousness, it is great to see Lawrence get back to being who we all know he can be after an abysmal performance against San Fransisco.

• Credit to Discord member (who you can follow @averagetay1 on Twitter) for pointing out that Calvin Ridley seems to do better with Zay Jones around, and inversely Christian Kirk fails to produce. Case in point:

  • Ridley with Jones: 17.3 Half-PPR PPG

  • Ridley w/o Jones: 6.2

  • Kirk with Jones: 8.5

  • Kirk w/o Jones: 11.8

  I don’t think it’ll be an every-week thing with Kirk falling flat while Jones plays, but it certainly takes the shine off of him.

• 🐄 Another fun fact: Tank Dell is the WR3 since week 9 and the WR15 on the season. He gets to face Tennessee twice during the fantasy playoffs (plus Cleveland, that’ll be fun).

• 🔵 Who knew all Saquon Barkley needed was Tommy DeVito? The talented back has been efficient on the ground in the three games where we had a major dose of DeVito, and if he continues to get check-downs as the Giants’ main offensive weapon, sign me up.

• Play Jaylen Warren when possible. That is all. If you need more, just look up what he did to Cleveland.

• 🤠 Tony Pollard finally had a good game, and even then you’re left wanting more from him. It’s unlikely you can sell high, but I would sell if I could, even if the trade feels like an even swap.

• 🦬 Dalton Kincaid has scored double-digit points in four of the last five weeks and is the TE3 entering Monday night football.

• 🐅 A name to monitor/pick up? Tanner Hudson. The Bengals have searched repeatedly for a tight end, and by no means is their search over, but Hudson has caught 14 passes for 127 yards in the past three weeks.

Waiver Wire and Trade Targets

• QB: Tommy DeVito vs. NE, Garnder Minshew vs. TB, Jake Browning vs. PIT

• RB: Zach Charbonnet vs. SF, Tyjae Spears vs. CAR (desperate start only)

• WR: Jayden Reed vs. DET, Michael Wilson vs. LAR, Khalil Shakir vs. PHI

• TE: Luke Musgrave vs. DET, Michael Mayer vs. KC, Tanner Hudson vs. PIT

• DST: Indianapolis vs. TB, Houston vs JAC, Denver vs CLE

Thanksgiving Day Preview

We’ve got three Thanksgiving matchups, and in the interest of time and everyone’s sanity, let’s fly through them.

Green Bay vs Detroit

🟢 🧀 Jordan Love played well against the Lions earlier in the season, so it’ll be interesting to see how round two will go after his big day against the Chargers. Aaron Jones is likely out for the game, leading AJ Dillion to get more touches. Do I care? Nope. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are my favorite receivers to play, and Christian Watson is a distant third. Maybe he’ll have a vintage game against Detroit, giving us all something to be thankful for. I don’t know. Pay attention to Dontayvion Wicks, especially for DFS.

🦁 Amon-Ra St.Brown is a set-and-forget stud. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should have a much better day against the Packers’ run defense than Austin Ekeler did on Sunday. Hopefully Sam LaPorta gets back to his usual solid performances.

Washington vs Dallas

🎖️ Hopefully, this isn’t a blood bath. Howell unexpectedly beat the Cowboys last season in his first start, but this time around the Washington defense is so much worse than it was then. I still like Howell in this matchup, and the same goes for Brian Robinson if Antonio Gibson can’t go. Terry McLaurin is a risky start, but doable. Logan Thomas is probably going to be featured a decent amount with the Cowboys’ secondary giving Washington a fit.

🤠 Wheels up for the Boys. Dak and CeeDee Lamb are going to win people money and matchups this Thanksgiving. Tony Pollard could even factor in! Jake Ferguson should have a bounce-back week against the Commanders who are a so-so matchup for tight ends. Brandin Cooks can be started, but I wouldn’t want to if I could help it.

San Fransisco vs. Seattle

⛏️ Start your studs. Christian McCaffrey is not human from what I can tell. Deebo Samuel should bounce back after a so-so game. Brando Aiyuk is the WR14 on the year and is capable of huge games. Maybe like, 156 yards and a score? Oh, that’s right, he just did that. George Kittle is a little scary just because he can be so hot and cold but he has been red hot the past few weeks. Stay in those flames. Brock Purdy is a great start as well.

🦅 Geno Smith may miss this game, if so, that’s bad news for everyone. If he plays, we feel a little better about the Seattle passing offense. DK Metcalf has come alive in the last two weeks and the good news is San Fransisco is not as scary of a matchup as it might seem for wideouts. Tyler Lockett has actually outscored Metcalf on the season, he and Jaxon Smith-Njigba make for intriguing starts. Should Kenneth Walker miss, Zach Charbonnet gets the backfield all to himself. The talented rookie has seen a recent uptick in passing work, hauling in nine passes in the past two weeks to go along with 21 carries. He might not have a big game against San Fran, but volume is king for fantasy and check-downs are your friend.

Final Thoughts

That is going to do it for this edition of Ballfield Banter! Thanks for reading and I will see you on Saturday! Get you some mashed potatoes, gravy, and stuffing and have some fun with family and friends! Remember to give thanks and be thankful. 🦃 🌽