When a Touchdown Hurts, Pt.1

Your favorite player probably scored too much last year.

For some, that might not even matter. Mike Evans is a great example of this. He outperforms nearly every single year in that department. In 2021, he was just over 8 touchdowns over expectation. Then he came back to earth by being right at expectation in 2022, only to go back up to 6.5 touchdowns above expectation in 2023. He IS an outlier player.

There are others, however, who have an outlier season and it will be hard to repeat. Still more who failed in the touchdown department but could see a rise in scoring this year.

For this study, I used WR data available on FantasyPros and then found how often wide receivers scored on average based on their targets, receptions, and yards. I then took those league-average numbers and compared them to a player’s individual performance. I also went and looked at red zone performances, to see if players were lucky, or unlucky, in the red zone as well. Red zone stats are a little tricky because you can’t really rely on yards gained, but usage. Goal-line fades don’t produce yards, but they can produce targets and receptions. So I mainly focused on targets and receptions when a team is close to the goal line.

I started to include them in this article but decided against it because it would have been waaaay too many numbers and acronyms being thrown around. Just know that they do factor into the analysis below.

Some players had some surprising results. Not everyone who was “over-productive” in one area was over-productive in both and vice versa. That doesn’t mean we can’t glean information from this though.

Instead of writing over or under expectation over and over, I’ll be using ±TAE: touchdowns above expectation. Keep in mind positive means they score more than expected. Negative means they scored less.

So let’s start!

The Overperformers

🐎 Courtland Sutton +5.6 TAE

Sutton was a touchdown machine last year, outperforming both in general and in the red zone. Naturally, we would expect to see some regression this year under normal circumstances. And he has anything but normal circumstances. Denver added a rookie WR in Troy Franklin and brought in Josh Reynolds. Not only that, but they took away Russell Wilson (who had a target fixation for Sutton) and replaced him with Franklin’s college quarterback, Bo Nix. So he has additional competition, even with Jerry Jeudy now in Cleveland, and a rookie quarterback who may struggle out of the gate. Sutton looks to be caught in a bad situation in 2024.

🟣 Jordan Addison +4.8 TAE

Addison was everyone’s favorite rookie wide receiver for a short span after he broke out and torched San Fransisco to the tune of 7-123-2. He scored in six of the Vikings’ first eight games, then went quiet until he had yet another two-touchdown explosion in December against the Bengals. Even so, he was still outproducing the league average. Addison no longer has Kirk Cousins at quarterback and will deal with the combination of Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy. Justin Jefferson is back, but TJ Hockenson missing time should funnel a few more targets his way. He’s a capable No.2 receiver for sure, not taking that away from him. But with Addison already +TAE with all those factors above, he could be a slight bust this year.

🧀 🟢 Green Bay Receivers

Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson all outperformed in TAE. They were +3.7, +3.4, and +2.7 TAE respectively. They were just an efficient offense last year and surprised almost everyone with their effectiveness; QB Jordan Love had the fifth-highest touchdown percentage among qualifying NFL quarterbacks last year. Green Bay has a good coaching staff and offensive system, so they may be efficient once again. However, no one has really stepped up and taken the mantle as the WR1 of the team. Some think Reed, others Doubs, and some think Wicks is their future No.1. Despite his injuries, Christian Watson isn’t bad either. If someone separates this year, it could mean the others see their shine fade a little.

The Underachievers

🏴‍☠️ Chris Godwin -4.1 TAE

Chris Godwin was a bit unlucky last season. Believe it or not, he had only six fewer targets and four more receptions than Mike Evans! He had over 1,000 yards and two scores. That’s it. Only six receivers with over 130 and 80 receptions had fewer than 6 touchdowns last year. Chris Godwin and Garrett Wilson were the only ones to have fewer than four. He’s been on the low side of scoring in recent years, and even if Tampa takes a step back this year, I’d expect him to haul in closer to 4-5 scores than the two he saw last year. And speaking of Garrett Wilson…

🛫 Garrett Wilson -4.0 TAE

Up to this point in his career, Garrett Wilson has suffered the same fate as DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin have over the majority of their careers: being attached to quarterbacks who can’t get him the ball. Aaron Rodgers should hopefully play more than four snaps this season, and if so, we should see Wilson’s fantasy stock improve and his scores creep back up to “normal”.

🐴 Colts Receivers 🔵 

Both Michael Pittman and Josh Downs made the top-10 on the list of players who could see their touchdown luck improve this year at -3.4 and -2.7 respectively. The tricky thing is, that was with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Anthony Richardson should hopefully take the reigns this year, but if he misses time, at least they have the 🐐 Joe Flacco as a backup. We know Pittman is a talented receiver and Downs should continue to play in the slot with AD Mitchell now in town. Want my fun Downs fandom fact of the day? Downs has more career targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns than fellow AFC South WR Treylon Burks.

A fun Pittman stat? When researching his numbers, he came out with -3.4 TAE, as listed above. I dove into his red zone stats and when looking at the numbers there, he came out with -3.4 TAE once again. In the end, it seems that he was on par with the league average except when down close to the endzone, something worth considering. 🤔 

BONUS UNDERACHIEVERS

🐈‍⬛ This might come to no one’s surprise, but guess what? Jonathan Mingo and Adam Theilen both had a negative TAE. Does that mean I’m advocating for you to draft Jonathan Mingo? Nope, not at all. Does it mean Adam Thielen might be an ok value? Maybe. It does mean that Carolina has nowhere to go but up, and if they do, their receivers should see their fantasy value increase. I fully understand that almost everyone who watched them last year already knows this, but I thought I’d throw in Carolina for some fun.

That will do it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter! Nerdy stuff today, and full disclosure, I’m undecided on what I should do next. Should I cover running backs and team TD regression over the next several weeks, skip straight to the teams, or something else? I’m open to hearing your thoughts, just head over to the discord and let me know!