Tight End Sleepers, Busts, and Breakouts

How’s it going everyone!

Last week I promised that I was going to write about receivers with this edition, but I had to switch it up because of the DeAndre Hopkins news. Hopkins going to Tennessee over a place like, I don’t know, Kansas City threw some things off.

So, I wanted to give ECR and ADP some time to adjust to the change before we did the wide receivers. I had intended to write about Treylon Burks, and I still might, but he might qualify as a sleeper instead of a breakout with the news.

So we’re pivoting to tight end this week. We know the main names of the position, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, and George Kittle.

But there are surprises every year. In 2022 Evan Engram jumped back into the top 5 at the position. In 2021, it was Dalton Schultz and Dawson Knox making the jump into the Top 12. To be fair it’s not difficult for a tight end to become a top-12 option, just have about 55 receptions for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns and you’re in. Those aren’t exact numbers but it’s close.

While it’s hard to find a tight end aside from the top guys who is a weekly roster lock, you can find sleepers and breakout TE candidates who could become either weekly locks or reliable streamers.

🤠  Jake Ferguson ⭐️ 

I really like Ferguson this year. Schultz is gone and Dallas was ok with letting him walk. They drafted Luke Schoonmaker in the second round but I’m betting on the player who’s been in the NFL longer. Ferguson was productive in college at Wisconsin (teammates with Jonathan Taylor) and showed flashes as a rookie. The tight end has always been an important part of the Dallas offense and I expect Big Jake to take the next step.

😼 Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz

Hurst left Cincinnati after only a year, but he rebuilt his value to the tune of a 3-year, $21.7 million contract with Carolina. I’m a big fan of Dalton Schultz this year, and I see him and Hurst in a similar light. Their competition is past their prime receivers (Robert Woods and Adam Theilen) or unproven youth (John Metchie, Tank Dell, Jonathan Mingo, Terrace Marshall).

They both have rookie quarterbacks, selected back-to-back in the 2023 NFL draft. While rookie quarterbacks don’t increase the value of the tight end as much as we think, I think that these two guys can end up at or near the lead in targets for their respective teams.

Breakout - Chigoziem Okonkwo - ECR TE12

Chig has been the offseason fantasy darling, and I don’t expect it to change even with Hopkins signing with the Titans. Given his current ECR of 12, I still think he can return on that value. Back in 2020 when the Titans had AJ Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith, Smith finished as the TE17 in PPR. In half-PPR and standard scoring, he was a TE1.

The TE17 finish was largely due to Smith just not catching many passes. 41 to be exact. Had he caught the “55 catches for 500 yards” he would have been well inside TE1 territory in PPR scoring as well. Okonkwo has a better YPR, ADOT, and catch percentage than Smith (albeit a smaller sample size), along with the best yards per route run of any TE in 2022. Why do I bring up Smith?

Because I think that we’re looking at a similar type of target distribution between the top three pass catchers in Tennessee in 2023 as in 2020. The main difference is Okonkwo showed me he has an elite upside that Jonnu didn’t have. If Smith can manage a TE17 finish, I think Okonkwo can certainly finish as a Top-12 option, if not Top-6.

Bust - T.J. Hockenson - ECR TE3

Oh boy, time to make some people upset. As a whole, Hockenson averaged 12.7 PPR points per game as the overall TE2. But his fantasy finish was inflated by two massive games, one with the Lions and one with the Vikings. When subtracting those two games, he averaged a mere 9.3 fantasy points per game. That drops him down to the TE12 in points per game.

Hockenson could be the second target in the Vikings offense, there is a world where that happens. But instead of competing with an aging Adam Thielen, he now has to face young rookie Jordan Addison out of USC.

The good news for Hockules is Minnesota’s defense projects to be terrible, so they could once again be pass-happy. While Addison won’t be siphoning all the targets away from Hockenson, I do expect him to be a bigger threat than Thielen was last year. And don’t get me wrong, I think Hockenson is still a top tight end, but I’m just not comfortable drafting him as the third TE off the board.

Final Thoughts

When trying to find a tight end, looking at target share, talent, and opportunity can help you identify values and potential breakouts in drafts. These are the guys I’m targeting (or avoiding!) in my drafts this year.

Who are you going after this year? Hit me up on Twitter or send me an email at [email protected] to let me know or ask any questions you might have! Next week the ADP should settle a little more with the wide receivers, so tenatively, we’ll cover them next week. See you then!