Running Backs: Zero to Hero

Earlier this week, we dove into the RB Heavy draft strategy. Now we’re going to go into not one, but two more styles of drafting centered around the running back position.

I don’t have quite as fancy or long-winded an intro as usual, so we’re going to dive right in this week.

Once again, our ADP data comes from Fantasy Football Calculator and our fantasy points data comes from Pro-Football-Reference.

The Zero-RB Style

Zero-RB is, as you would expect, the exact opposite of RB-Heavy. My usual practice is I don’t draft a running back until round 6, but some think taking a RB in round 5 is fine for Zero-RB. This strategy is really only viable in .5 PPR or full PPR formats, as standard leagues still heavily favor the traditional workhorse backs.

This strategy is based on the fact that running backs can have breakout seasons all the time. Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, Kenneth Walker, and Jamaal Williams were all drafted in round 6 or later in 2022. Leonard Fournette and James Conner were both drafted fairly late in drafts in 2021. James Robinson and Myles Gaskin were waiver wire guys in 2020.

It also recognizes there are a lot of injuries to running backs, especially at the top. Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry are some examples.

By the time you are ready to draft a running back, you have several top-end wideouts and either a top-tier tight end or quarterback (or both!). If you do draft a TE and QB, make sure you’re not going WR/TE/QB with your first three picks. You’ve killed any positional advantage you might have had otherwise. I would recommend WR-TE-WR-WR-QB if I was to go that route.

We have a sample of 18 running backs that were drafted at or after pick 55 since 2019 that achieved 12 or more points per game. Of the 18, only six had more than 1000 rushing yards. Twelve had 30 or more receptions, not an abnormally high number, and not necessarily a benchmark I feel a back has to hit. What really helped was touchdowns. Ten of the 18 had 10 or more scores, and 13 had 8 or more. The fewest number of scores a running back had of that sample was Dameon Pierce with four scores. In short, look for backs who are in good offenses where scoring opportunities abound, and a plus if they have receiving upside.

Here’s just a quick visual of all the backs drafted between pick 55 and 100 since 2019. Hit rates decline sharply after pick 80, but that shouldn’t keep you from searching for value past it.

Hero-RB Strategy

This strategy is a “Zero RB meets Heavy RB”. Hero RB is where you take a running back early and then adopt a Zero RB strategy. It’s also known as the “Anchor RB strategy”.

Because we have built the foundation for understanding this strategy thanks to the section above and the newsletter earlier this week, this section will go quickly.

In practice, as I mentioned a second ago, in the first or early second round you would take a top-tier running back. Guys like CMC, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, or Derrick Henry, for example. Afterward, you would load up on wide receiver and grab a onesie position (positions you typically start one of, unlike RB or WR), be it quarterback or tight end.

Then about the 6th round, you will turn your attention back to the running back position. You would look to target backs with consistent volume (better if it’s in the receiving game) and shoot for upside. The shotgun approach gives you higher chances to draft a breakout running back to go alongside your early-round RB to put your team over the top.

That is all I have for this week, tune back in on Tuesday next week for yet another newsletter with some draft tips and tricks!