Not a GOAT, but a Lamb

How many Senior Bowl highlights did you watch? I didn’t tune in maybe as much as I should have, but man, Ladd McConkey of Georgia can sure run some pretty routes. That was the main thing for me. The way he moves and throws off defenders is just perfection.

I’m not a huge fan of his production profile while at Georgia, but he has my attention for sure.

But we’re not here to talk about prospects (yet 😉 ) we’re here to look at how wide receivers did in 2023, starting at the tip-top cream of the crop guys and working our way down. It’s gonna be great!

News and Notes

• Dave Canales is in for the Panthers as head coach. He has ties to their new GM, Dan Morgan, and received a huge 6-year contract (let’s hope they keep him that long!). Canales worked with both Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa, resurrecting each quarterback’s respective careers. The hope is he does the same for Bryce Young.

• Eric Bieniemy is out for the Commanders after one year as their offensive coordinator. Washington continued to struggle on offense in 2023 after hopes that the OC for Patrick Mahomes could spark life in their team. Well, Mahomes struggled a bit this year without Bieniemy. But so did Bieniemy without Mahomes. Whether or not one missed the other and vice versa, you can’t deny the lack of offensive talent on both teams (though in different areas I’d argue). He’ll be looking for a job elsewhere to prove he does have what it takes and is not a product of Mahomes.

The Top-12 Wide Receivers

• 💿️ 🐏 Coming in as our WR1 for the 2023 season is CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys top wideout started out struggling a little bit but put on a show to end the year. After the Cowboy’s bye in week 7, Lamb was the WR1 the rest of the way and it wasn’t particularly close. In fact, his 23.4 half-PPR points per game were nearly five points more than the next wideout. Not only that, his stretch was so dominant that if he ONLY counted those weeks and not week 1-7 he still would have been the WR5 on the year. Pure domination by Lamb.

• 🐬 The next WR is Tyreek Hill. We were robbed of a potential 2,000-yard receiving year. Yes, he missed a game, but Hill slowed significantly down the stretch. Including week 18, he went four straight games with under 100 receiving yards. He’s still a dominating factor when on the field and is a top redraft asset going forward. If you’re in a win-now dynasty league, few players are worth rostering over him.

• ☀️ 🦁 Amon-Ra St.Brown, aka “the sun god” continued to show why he’s one of the best receivers in the NFL as the main engine of the Lions offense, finishing the season as the WR3 on the year. Yes, they have guys like Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery there. But, there’s no argument against how much ARSB means to the Lions’ offense.

• 🏴‍☠️ It never ceases to amaze me how Mike Evans continuously scores more touchdowns than he’s supposed to. He led all wideouts with 13 receiving touchdowns, a whopping 6.8 more than he was expected to score. Every other top-5 wide receiver had more than 100 receptions, Evans had 76. He’s made a career out of exceeding expectations (such as 8 more than expected in 2021) and is due for a big payday in 2024. Whether he stays in Tampa or moves could play a big part in his upcoming seasons. But for now, he’s a strong redraft asset.

• 🦅 A.J. Brown comes in at WR5. It sounds great but he faded big time towards the end of the season. From weeks 1-8, he was the WR2 in fantasy. After the Eagles’ bye week, he fell all the way to wide receiver three territory and finished inside the top 20 WRs once. A massive drop. He’s still one of the most physically dominant wide receivers in the game and should be drafted as such. The second round is where I see him in 2024 drafts.

• 🐏 I won’t dive into incredible detail here, mostly because of everything that has already been said about Puka Nacua to this point (and because I have some stuff planned down the road 😉), but he had arguably the greatest rookie season in NFL history. The rookie out of BYU finished as the WR6 in fantasy, and man, if you have him in dynasty formats, rejoice! The only downer to his season was his five touchdowns, but he actually scored 2.6 fewer times than he should have. If he had scored even 7 touchdowns, he would have jumped to WR4 on the season. Some slight regression might be coming his way as if you needed another reason to draft him.

• 🐻 D.J. Moore finally finished as a WR1!!! He had one of the best weekly scores of any player in fantasy in 2023 with 45 points in week 5. It was a bit of a rocky road to get to his impressive finish line, with 10 finishes at or outside WR3 territory, but six finishes as a WR1, very much feast or famine style. Moore has a lot of questions hanging over his head in 2024, starting with who will be his quarterback next season.

• ⚡️ Keenan Allen was the epitome of volume play, leading all receivers in receptions per game with 8.3. He put up respectable numbers without Justin Herbert but will be going into his age-32 season. Usually, that’s a bit of a red flag, but he didn’t show signs of slowing down aside from an injury keeping him out for the final few games, which is a good sign. Plus, they got Harbaugh now.

• ⛏️ Deebo Samuel was the only top-12 wide receiver who had fewer than 100 targets. In fact, he had fewer than 90. He had 87. And yet finishes as the WR9 in large part thanks to his rushing ability, taking 36 carries for 214 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

• 🐅 I bet you didn’t feel like these next two receivers belong here, but lo and behold, Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs finish as the WR10 and 11 respectively. Chase finished as the WR10 despite having only 5 top-12 performances and only one performance inside the top 5. Much like DJ Moore, in every other game where he did not finish top-12, he was a WR3 or worse. He’s still a top-end talent, draft like it. Stefon Diggs was the WR4 until the Bills bye week, afterwards, he fell all the way to, check notes, WR66!!! A list of some players who were better in that stretch: Wan’Dale Robinson, Jamal Agnew, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Alex Erickson, and Bo Melton. Most of that list makes you think “who?!” Yes, all are NFL players who scored more points than Diggs in that stretch. His draft stock will fall dramatically but I don’t think he’s going to fall past WR2 territory. 🦬 

• ⛏️ The only pair of teammates to make a top-12 appearance this season are Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The fourth-year wideout had his first WR1 finish after ending 2022 as the WR15. The 49ers will need to make some roster decisions this upcoming season, and it’s unlikely they can afford to bring back both Deebo and Aiyuk. But NFL teams have a way of working around cap space, so there is a chance. Personally, I’d like to see him get a shot elsewhere so he can shine and be an alpha, rather than be in a crowded offense with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo. Green Bay? Carolina? New York Giants? There are options out there for him for sure.

Top 20 Wideouts and Honorable Mentions

In this section, I won’t detail everyone, but I figured I’d hit some of the highlights.

• ☠️ Davante Adams deserves a shout-out as the WR13 after getting just one fewer target than CeeDee Lamb on the season (167). He deserves better than what the Raiders have given him. QB play has been a big part of his drop in production, as he caught only 58.7% of the passes thrown his way. We all know most of that is not on Adams.

• 🐄 Tank Dell deserves to be mentioned here as well, finishing as the half-PPR WR36 despite playing in (essentially) 10 games. Should you extrapolate his numbers across a 17-game season, he would have ended up with 128 targets, 80 receptions, 1205 receiving yards, and 12 TDs. Add in his rushing numbers, and he has 241.2 fantasy points. AKA, he would be the WR4 overall, with more points than Puka Nacua, A.J. Brown and Mike Evans. It’s unlikely he actually would have ended up there, but the potential is there for Tank.

• 🦅 DeVonta Smith had a weird season. Jalen Hurts passing numbers actually went up slightly from last season on a raw numbers perspective. His yards, pass attempts, and even passing TDs went up; but Smith just couldn’t seem to crack the top 12. Dallas Goedert played more games this year but had fewer total yards so it wasn’t him. What I did notice is that in 2022, the running backs in Philly had a 6% receiving yards share. In 2023 they had an 11.2% share. Nearly double the rate year-over-year. His season may be worth diving into more 🤔 

• ⛪️ Chris Olave couldn’t find the endzone with only four scores vs an expected six. Hopefully, he and his former Ohio State teammates Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all take the next step forward in 2024.

• Three rookie wide receivers finished as a WR2 or better, Puka, Rashee Rice, and Jordan Addison.

• Justin Jefferson is good y’all. In his nine games, he averaged 15 fantasy points per game. If you take out the game he got injured in, he was up at 20.5 fantasy points per game, which would have been the overall WR1 on the year. Don’t let injury deter you from drafting him.

• Some names to keep in mind for next year are Jakobi Meyers, Demario Douglas, Khalil Shakir, and Josh Downs. Slot-type guys who can come up with big games when given the workload. Not a win-your-week type but fairly reliable.

Wrapping Up Wide Receivers

Wide receiver was definitely an interesting position this year. I guess you could say that about every position given the injuries and draft day disappointments we had. Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson all failed to return on value (but so did many of the running backs). It seemed like if you didn’t select one of Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, or CeeDee Lamb in the first two rounds, you might as well have thrown away those picks. The position is deep no doubt, but you just have to be smart in finding what depth pieces actually can make a difference in fantasy football.

That will do it for this edition of Ballfield Banter! Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you next week with the 2023 tight-end review!