NFL Week 17 Start, Sit, and More!

Championship week is here! It’s hard to believe just how long, and short, the NFL season is. Quite frankly, I’m exhausted! Even though I brought the newsletter down to just one a week halfway through, it’s very tough keeping up with everything. And this isn’t even the only thing I write. I also do game recaps for both the NFL and the NBA, so I’m always doing something. So a welcome break is up ahead before moving on into offseason content.

Last week did not work out well for our streamers Stafford, Rush, and Penix. Rush finished the highest of all at QB20, Stafford and Penix were all the way down at QB31 and 30 respectively.

Rico Dowdle was awful and Craig Reynolds didn’t see close to the workload I thought he would. Jerome Ford had a good game thanks to a big run though! I feel like I called out the Joe Mixon struggle bus game correctly, though I can’t say it was much fun to do so.

Jalen Coker, Malik Washington, and Jakobi Meyers were all duds. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore had nice games (unlike Thursday night…wooooooof) and Jordan Addison caught a touchdown. So receivers weren’t a total loss.

Ben Sinnott was a non-factor thanks to Zach Ertz's return, so I’m gonna give myself a break on that one, he also didn’t do anything either. Chig Okonkwo had yet another great game and is in line for some more work this week.

So my recap of last week is basically what I said after bringing up the receivers: not a total loss. It's not how I want to be going into the season's final week, but here we are.

This newsletter will be a bit more focused on players you can see yourself starting that are already ON your rosters, though I will mention a few players you can get off of waivers if you’re in a pinch. Some players will have a bit more statistical breakdown, others will be brief thoughts.

Things to Look Out For in Week 16

Quarterbacks

⚡️ Justin Herbert faces the Patriots on Saturday and I think New England will be able to put up a few points. Maybe not push the Chargers, but at least enough to make them keep the starters out there. The Pats are about average against the pass, so there’s not much to dissect there, but with J.K. Dobbins returning and likely on some sort of workload management program, I’d expect LA to use Herbert’s arm more often than not.

🐬 Tua Tagovailoa is not someone you usually think of to start in cold weather, but against the Browns, I don’t see why not! Cleveland is allowing 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over their last three and is just mailing it in till next year. By extension, Tyreek Hill is a good play despite his down year as well as Jonnu Smith and Malik Washington (if Jaylen Waddle does not play).

🔥 It’s not gonna be pretty and I wouldn’t recommend watching the game for fear of dying of stress, but Mason Rudolph could work in a pinch for those without Hurts (to quote my wife: “it…Hurts, doesn’t it?”). Jacksonville might have held their own against Will Levis, but can lightning strike twice? Rudolph has put up totals of 16.8 and 17.4 points the last two weeks despite throwing 4 interceptions in total, and Jacksonville has only five picks this year: tied for 30th in the NFL.

Running Backs

🏴‍☠️ Since Week 7, Rachaad White is the RB11 in PPR formats and the RB13 in half-PPR. When he last faced Carolina, he ran well but suffered from a lack of passing down work with Bucky Irving’s massive game taking the spotlight. Both running backs should be just fine against the Panthers, who have been one of the league’s worst run defenses all year.

🐈‍⬛ On the flip side, Chuba Hubbard faces off against a Tampa defense that contained him well last time out, but Jonathon Brooks was active then and Hubbard was still involved on passing downs but failed to see a target. Now on his own, Hubbard should see plenty of work against a defense that has allowed the fourth most receptions and receiving yards to running backs this year.

🔴 Start James Conner this week against the Rams. It looks like despite his injury, he is going to play on Saturday and he was the RB6 against them back in Week 2.

⛪️ I don’t know if I need to tell you this, but if Alvin Kamara does not suit up, don’t play Kendre Miller. Even against Vegas, it’s too hard to trust this New Orleans JV football offense. If Kamara does play, I am ok with him given he will likely be fed a ton of work on the ground and through the air. Plus, he’s just a different level of player and has the coaches trust.

Wide Receivers

🦅 It might not be the prettiest thing, but I am fine starting AJ Brown against the Cowboys even with Kenny Pickett at quarterback. He’s not flashy, but he can get the ball to Brown and let him work his magic. 13 of Picketts’ 24 passes were thrown Brown’s way, a 54% target share (granted, that 24 includes throwaways, still an insane target rate). Trust your studs.

⚡️ New England is an above-average matchup for slot receivers in terms of the percentage of total WR points scored (both outside and in the slot). The Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives and I think they would be wise to feed Ladd McConkey in this spot.

⛏️ I get he’s not been the same stud he was at certain points, but we saw what DJ Moore and Keenan Allen did to the Lions last week, why can’t Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel take care of business against them too? Specifically, I want to mention Jennings. In half-PPR, he’s not been over 10 points but once in his last five, but I think he’s in for a big game against such a wounded secondary.

🐴 What if I told you Josh Downs had a 36% target share last week? Hush hush ignore that there were only 11 passes to go around, you're not supposed to think about that! Just kidding. The lack of passing volume is concerning, but the Giants are just a horrible defense. They have only three interceptions on the season, are allowing 6.5 N/YA, and are average in bringing pressure. Yes, the Colts could just run all over them here, but I think Downs can break free for a few receptions and a score in this game.

Tight Ends

🟠 If David Njoku starts this week, put him in your lineup against the Dolphins. If he misses, Jordan Akins feels like the next man up and should get around 4-6 targets, putting him in deep sleeper category.

🔥 Please start Chig Okonkwo against the Jaguars. They aren’t especially bad against them (still bad but not like, top 5), they’re just the Jaguars and you shouldn’t bench your players against them, especially on a hot streak.

That’s all for this week, thanks for stopping by!

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