NFL Week 16 Start, Sit, and More!

For those who remember, I dove headfirst into Calvin Ridley last week, taking a look at his air yards, ADOT, and catch percentage. I said he and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would be great starts against Jacksonville, but suddenly the Jags didn’t play like JAGs. Whoops.

Hey Aaron Rodgers worked out well! Bryce Young and Tua Tagovailoa? Not so much. Rico Dowdle didn’t get in the endzone or catch a pass, but he ran all over the Panthers and had a good day on the ground. Brian Robinson had a decent game and Jerome Ford broke off a long touchdown against Kansas City.

Demario Douglas was saved by a touchdown while Darnell Mooney and Scotty Miller goosed. I did talk about Xavier Worthy, not so much as a sleeper but just as someone to watch as the season closes. For what it’s worth, he had a great game against Cleveland.

The tight ends of Stone Smartt and Daniel Bellinger had games about like you’d expect: fine but not great. That’s what you get when streaming tight ends and go for the deep shots!

Things to Look Out For in Week 16

Quarterbacks

🐏 Since Week 10, the Jets have given up the sixth most points to receivers according to Razzball.com. That means I like Matthew Stafford as a streamer against them. He wasn’t so hot against the 49ers, but prior to that, he was a QB1 in three of his previous four games. By extension, I like Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp a lot, and think their performance will fuel the Stafford bounce back.

🤠 Cooper Rush is a bit scary, but if you’re in a pinch, I think he can work. He’s had two Top-10 finishes in the last four weeks, and Tampa is one of the best matchups for quarterbacks on the season. They’re allowing the most fantasy points to the position and with the Bucs pushing for a playoff spot, expect Dallas to try to keep up.

🔴 I get it’s his first NFL start, but Michael Penix is in a great spot versus the Giants this week. His final college season at Washington was stellar, and one has to wonder, he got three receivers into the NFL who haven’t done terribly much up to this point. McMillan and Odunze have flashed for sure (and I think Odunze just needs time before he takes the leap), but they don't look like the guys we expected them to be. Could it be that Penix is just that good? It also doesn’t hurt that the Giants are also mediocre at best on defense.

Running Backs

🤠 We’ve been riding the train with Rico Dowdle recently, and we’re gonna stay on it. Despite not getting into the endzone or catching a pass, Dowdle nonetheless had an impressive day against the Panthers, rushing for 149 yards. He gets another NFC South team this week in Tampa, who are a tougher matchup for sure. But, they have been giving up receiving work to backs this year, and up until the last two weeks, Dowdle has been getting 3-5 targets per game. A return to that workload would greatly boost his stock.

🟠 Sadly, Nick Chubb is out for the season, but that puts Jerome Ford back in the drivers seat in Cleveland. He just had his first RB1 finish of the season against Kansas City of all people, and he’s not the type to explode for a huge game. But, he’s a fine player who can get you where you want to go, and it’s against Cincy, who is middle-of-the-pack against running backs and have given up 15 total touchdowns to the position this year.

🦁 Do I expect Jahmyr Gibbs to go nuclear against Chicago? Yes. Do I also think that Craig Reynolds can get some work behind him? Also yes. Don’t expect him to completely take over the David Montgomery role, but I do think with all the injuries the Lions have suffered, they will do their best to not overwork Gibbs. He’s had some good games in the past when given a bigger workload, and I think we could see him get anywhere between 10-12 touches.

🐄 The fantasy playoffs are usually the type of game where you just start the studs who got you there. What I’m worried about is Joe Mixon being someone who got you there but can’t get you further. For one, he's dealing with an injury. Two, he’s playing against Kansas City which has been very good at stopping running backs save for a Jerome Ford breakaway run last week. Third, Houston’s offense hasn’t been that stellar this season. If I had someone like Kendre Miller or Bucky Irving, I’d highly consider starting them over Mixon this week. He’ll go off for 35 points now that I’ve said all this, but I just wanted to throw this out there. He’s not a must-sit, but he’s not a must-start to either.

Wide Receivers

🐈‍⬛ After a four-week absence, Jalen Coker returned to the Panthers lineup with six targets, four catches, 110 yards, and a score. Since Week 10, 51% of the WR points scored against Arizona have been out of the slot, the third-highest percentage in the NFL.

🔵 This season, Malik Nabers is second in the NFL in targets and fourth in receptions with 140 and 90 respectively. And he’s missed two games! With three games left (including Week 18), Nabers has to catch just 16 passes to break the all-time record set by Puka Nacua all the way back in…2023.

💀 It sounds like Aidan O’Connell will play in Week 16, which is a great boost for Jakobi Meyers. I’m not expecting much more than WR2 numbers, but against Jacksonville, I have a feeling they will be strong WR2 numbers.

🟣 While we’re on the subject of Seattle vs Minnesota, since Week 4, Jordan Addison has been the overall WR8 in half-PPR. The Seahawks are middle-of-the-pack against wide receivers, and Minnesota is pushing for the lead in the NFC North. Expect a lot of back-and-forth in this game, with Addison getting his usual workload behind Justin Jefferson.

🐻 The last time we saw the Bears face the Lions, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen were the WR7 and 3 overall respectively. Detroit has been friendly to receivers all year, and they’ve only continued to lose defensive talent due to injury. In all likelihood, Moore was probably your WR2 or 3, so you might be starting him anyway. Allen, however, might be a bit more of a flex play. This is just my vote of approval to start both this weekend.

🐬 Lastly, I wanted to throw in some love for Malik Washington. Odell Beckham is gone and Jaylen Waddle is doubtful, so Washington could step in and have a nice game. He should step in as Miami’s WR2, and has shown the ability to get carries out of the backfield as well. I’m not expecting any massive game, but 10-12 half-PPR points should do the trick.

Tight Ends

🎖️ We’re going very, very deep with this, but Ben Sinnott might be an interesting play against Philly. Zach Ertz is out as is Noah Brown, and that put Sinnott in streaming consideration. His 54% snap share last week was a season-high, but it’s important to note he was splitting snaps with veteran John Bates as well. It’s a desperation, deep league play, but I wanted to throw that out there.

🔥 The Titans are spiraling out of control right now, mostly thanks to their lack of a quarterback option. Even with Mason Rudolph at the helm this week, Chig Okonkwo presents a nice option at tight end. He’s coming off his best game of the season with 10 targets, and 8 catches for 50 yards, and Indianapolis gives up the third most points to the position. He’s one of the very few tight ends who can take a 70-yard catch and run to the house (George Kittle, David Njoku, and that’s about it?), so fire him up if you need the ultimate go-big or go-home play.

That’s all for this week, thanks for stopping by!

Join the Ballfield Banter Discord now!