NFL Week 15 Start, Sit, and More!

For those who remember, I dove headfirst into Calvin Ridley last week, taking a look at his air yards, ADOT, and catch percentage. I said he and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would be great starts against Jacksonville, but suddenly the Jags didn’t play like JAGs. Whoops.

Geno Smith struggled as we thought he would, Cooper Rush and Will Levis were not great, however. The running back suggestions worked out well, but Gus Edwards was saved by his touchdown. Receiver suggestions were 50-50, but Adam Thielen was a big miss by me. I thought he would struggle against Philly but instead, he put up an incredible game. The tight ends were meh as well, Noah Gray and Will Dissly didn’t do much (but in my defense, Dissly suffered an injury).

It wasn’t my best week for my Start, Sit, and More column, but let’s turn things around this week!

No deep dive this week, but I will be bringing a couple of deep sleepers this week that would be able to help those in deeper leagues or desperate situations!

Things to Look Out For in Week 15

Quarterbacks

🐬 Tua Tagovailoa is not (usually) a cold-weather man. We have heard that mantra for a while now. But he played well in the cold in Green Bay, and, spoiler, he doesn’t have to worry about that in Houston! The Texans are a top-10 matchup for quarterbacks and Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith all seem to be finding their rhythm.

✈️ Look, I get it’s not been a pretty sight in New York, but I think you can start Aaron Rodgers this week. And the formula for why is pretty simple: he plays Jacksonville. I’d be a broken record if I mentioned exactly how bad that defense has been, but it’s awful. Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson should have their way against the secondary, but we could also see a good bit from Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis.

🐈‍⬛ Finally, I think you can start Bryce Young against Dallas this week. Now, this is only for very deep formats or two QB leagues, but I think he works. Dallas is good at pressuring the quarterback, but they give it up to them in N/YA and in fantasy points in general. Carolina is actually favored in this one, and it looks like that team is turning a corner.

Running Backs

🤠 Rico Dowdle has taken over the Dallas backfield and now gets a fantastic matchup to start off the fantasy playoffs when he faces Carolina this week. On the season, they’ve allowed nearly 300 more rushing yards than any other team and have given up a league-leading 15 rushing scores to opposing backs. It’s wheels up for Dowdle once again.

🎖️ The Saints have completely fallen apart and their defense is giving it up to running backs. That makes Brian Robinson an appealing start this weekend. With Jake Haener at QB, I don’t expect a lot from the Saints offense, so the Commanders might put the ball in Robinson’s hands more often. There is also potential for Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols to get some work too if the Commanders get up big, but Rodriguez is the more attractive option.

✈️ While we’re talking about the Jets, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are both worth starting in Jacksonville if Breece Hall sits. If Hall plays, which sounds likely, I do expect him to have a reduced role. Braelon Allen is the most attractive option other than Hall, Davis will probably take on the RB3 role and isn’t startable.

🟠 It’s not a great matchup at all, but Jerome Ford should get a decent amount of work against Kansas City. He’s been Cleveland’s primary pass-catching back and the Browns could find themselves down or is passing situations often thanks to Kansas City’s great rushing defense.

Wide Receivers

🇺🇸 I’m going to keep attacking the slot matchups against Arizona. It worked well enough last week with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and I think Demario Douglas might be in for a nice day as well. Since Week 9, Arizona is allowing the 6th most fantasy points to slot receivers and New England will probably be working from behind.

🔴 Darnell Mooney got back on track last week after a couple of disappearing acts. To be fair, Kirk Cousins hasn’t been playing great ball, so it’s not all on Mooney. He’s the WR13 in half-PPR formats this year and gets a great matchup against Vegas, which has been giving it up to receivers these last few weeks. While we’re on the Falcons, I want to bring something up. Since Week 10, nine receivers have 7 or more Red Zone targets, and three of them have scored 1 or fewer touchdowns: Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, and Drake London. London and the Falcons’ offense feel due for some regression, and that could easily come this week.

🐎 In contrast to Demario Douglas, Josh Downs does not have a great slot matchup. Denver has been limiting receivers of late, but much like their AFC West counterparts i just mentioned, over the last few weeks they have allowed a ton of points to wide receivers. I’m willing to start Downs in spite of the matchup and put my trust in his talent and target share.

🏹 One thing I wanted to note about Xavier Worthy is that he’s not doing all that bad. A lot of people were worried about him after his hot start, and to be fair he cooled off significantly, but let’s take a closer look. Worthy has caught 38 of 67 targets. That low of a catch rate sounds bad, right? Well, depending on your source, only 42 to 46 targets were catchable. That gives him a much better catch rate. What’s also encouraging is that over the last four weeks, Worthy’s catch rate hasn’t fallen below 67% on a given day, with three of those being above 70%. A lot of people panic-sold him in dynasty a few weeks ago, but I think it might have been a little too soon to do that.

I don’t want to go overboard with comparisons, but for what it’s worth, through 13 games in his last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 493 receiving yards and 2 scores. Worthy has 448 and four scores (including his rushing, he has 502 total yards and 6 TD). 🔴 

🟡 Forgive me for the amount of stuff I talk about from slot receivers, but I want to bring up one more: Scott Miller. Philadelphia is the worst matchup for receivers for the last few weeks, but they give up an above-average amount of points to slot receivers. George Pickens is out for this game, and while Scotty only had a 15.4% target share against Cleveland, I’d take the chance Russell Wilson looks his way more this week. ⚫️ 

Tight Ends

⚡️ Will Dissly is out. That has opened things up for Stone Smartt out of all people. And he was good in his limited opportunity. Filling in for Dissly, Smartt had three receptions for 54 yards. Tampa Bay has given it up to opposing tight ends this year, and Smartt may be able to capitalize.

🔵 It’s not a great play, but if you’re desperate at tight end, Daniel Bellinger is interesting against Baltimore. They’re middle of the pack against tight ends this season, so not a standout matchup. It’s more because Bellinger has taken over the role of starting tight end for the Giants and has put up usable games in the past while filling out that role which includes last week against the Saints.

That’s all for this week, thanks for stopping by!

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