NFL Week 14 Start, Sit, and More!

What’s up, everyone? Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving! And even though Black Friday isn’t what it once was in its glory days, for those who are shopping, stay safe out there.

I read an article where the author was confused as to why Calvin Ridley, who has elite opportunity and workload (1,379 total air yards according to FantasyLife, a 42% air yards market share), doesn’t have the production to show for it. Meanwhile, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is doing relatively fine and the Titans QBs seem able to hit him more consistently.

Basically, I think it comes down to a couple of things. First off, NWI is targeted closer to the line of scrimmage than Ridley. His ADOT on the season is 12.3, Ridley is up at 16.1.

Secondly, 36 of Ridley’s 87 targets came before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. He caught only 12 of them, a 33% catch rate (and had a ton of unrealized air yards during that time). After the Hopkins trade, he has a 61% catch rate. The Titans’ QBs haven’t noticeably gotten more accurate (in fact it’s actually gone down despite the better play of Will Levis), it’s probably regression to the mean.

Third, NWI only has a 53% catch rate! He’s not getting the ball at any better rate than Ridley is. But he has 8 touchdowns in that season, so what gives? It could be Red Zone work. So far this year, NWI has out-targeted Ridley in the Red Zone 7 to 4. That has helped. He’s also broke a 98-yard reception for a score and Ridley has had long touchdowns overturned by penalties. Luck has been on Ikhine’s side. This could be an Allen Hurns type of run. That means he could fizzle out at any moment. But he has a great remaining schedule, so maybe this continues.

And the same goes for Ridley. It’s only should only be a matter of time until the production comes.

Things to Look Out For in Week 13

Quarterbacks

🔵 Arizona is not a defense you’d expect to be that good, but I’m a little scared to start Geno Smith against them. In their last four games, Arizona has allowed a team to pass for more than 205 yards once, and never more than 220 yards. The game environment should be better for him this week inside a dome in Arizona, but they just held him to 13.4 points two weeks ago and Smith has only one QB1 performance in his past five games.

🤠 It get this name requires a leap of faith, but I think Cooper Rush is worth starting against Cincinnati this week. In his past three games he has had two 17+ point performances and the third game was against the Giants where the Cowboys ran the ball down their throats. Cincinnati should be able to push Dallas which in turn will help Rush’s need to pass the ball.

🔥 Will Levis wasn’t the greatest against Washington last week, but for what it’s worth, he threw two touchdowns and didn’t throw a pick. Jacksonville is the best matchup for quarterbacks this season and is just a terrible all-around defense. I think Levis is worth streaming this week and could have a good end-of-season run.

Running Backs

⛏️ The backfield might be a little murky, but I think Isaac Geurendo will be the lead back for the 49ers and is worth a start against Chicago. He’s averaged 5.9 yards per attempt on 42 carries so far this season, and the Bears are allowing the 4th most yards per attempt in the league this year.

🐅 The Cincinnati defense has allowed opposing offenses to score more than 30 points six times and the only team to allow more points than them this season is the Carolina Panthers. I think this bodes well for Rico Dowdle. He has at least 22 touches in back-to-back games and is Dallas’ primary back in a great game environment. It might feel a little scary to start Dowdle with fantasy playoffs on the line, but he just might be the key to you getting in.

⚡️ I’m not a fan of Gus Edwards vs KC this week. I don’t know if many people are in the first place, but just in case there are, I would encourage you to find a different option if at all possible. He’s not getting a large workload, and Kansas City is great against running backs. More than likely, unless I’m in the deepest of leagues, I’m fine with starting any waiver running back over him. Honestly, Edwards likely has only a 5-point ceiling, and there are plenty of waiver running backs who can top that (Travis Homer, Patrick Taylor, Tank Bigsby, or Ray Davis for example).

Wide Receivers

🔥 I tried to foreshadow this a little above, but I think you can start Calvin Ridley this week against Jacksonville. Ridley had a 51-yard score overturned against Minnesota and I feel like I’m missing other plays that could have changed our perception of him. Either way, Jacksonville is a hot mess, and their secondary bleeds points to receivers. So Ridley is a great play here. And yes, ride the wave with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine too.

🐆 In the same game, I think Brian Thomas Jr and Parker Washington are worth a start as well. Mac Jones wasn’t all that bad for them while filling in for Trevor Lawrence against Houston, and Washington looked good in an expanded role.

🟠 Since Week 8, Jerry Jeudy has been the WR3, and that includes a bye week. In PPG, he is also the WR3, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (Higgins has played only two games in that span). Cedric Tillman has been ruled out, and Jeudy should be atop the target tree yet again.

🦬 Amari Cooper has not been good with Buffalo aside from his first game with the team where he caught a touchdown. He’s struggled with a wrist injury but it does look like he’s on the mend. However, he’s yet to play more than 51% of the snaps in a game for Buffalo and has only eight catches for 70 yards since his debut with the team. The Rams aren’t a bad matchup and Josh Allen is playing extremely well, but I can’t trust Cooper in a week with fantasy playoff implications.

🐈‍⬛ Another veteran I’m not excited to start this week is Adam Thielen. This might feel like a no-brainer, but let me explain. Bryce Young has been playing better as of late and Thielen looks set up to be his No.1 WR with Xavier Legette still developing. Thielen just had eight receptions for 99 yards and a score against Tampa Bay, and Carolina has now pushed Tampa and Kansas City to the limit in back-to-back weeks. But Philadelphia has held up fairly well against No.1 wideouts and Thielen is on the backend of his career. I think Young may struggle as well and that will further impact Thielen.

🟢 So I’m not into Geno Smith this week, but I am all for starting Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Arizona’s defense has tightened up as of late, but they give up an above-average amount of points to slot receivers, where JSN runs 79% of his routes.

Tight Ends

I’m gonna mention two tight ends this week in the same game. The matchup is better for Will Dissly, but I also think Noah Gray is worth starting. Gray has caught at least four passes with at least 58 yards and/or two touchdowns in each of his last three games. Dissly had a disappearing act last week, but he’d been usable in each of his previous three games and he faces the Chiefs who have been one of the best matchups for tight ends this year.

That’s all for this week, thanks for stopping by!

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