NFL Week 13 Start, Sit, and More!

What’s up everyone? Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving! And even though Black Friday isn’t what it once was in its glory days, for those who are shopping, stay safe out there.

Rico Dowdle finally had his big game on Thursday, and Tyreek Hill had a more vintage Hill game, though he was greatly helped by a Jonnu Smith tipped pass turned Hill TD reception. De’Von Achane was amazing as per usual and the Lions decided to take the second half off but came out with a win (Jared Goff’s first on Thanksgiving Day!).

We have a game today with Kansas City and Las Vegas squaring off, and KC might be in a bit of a trap spot with how they’ve been performing recently, but I think they pull off the win. But let’s focus on Sunday, what do we have going on this week?

Let’s dive in!

Things to Look Out For in Week 13

Quarterbacks

🐄 You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but C.J. Stroud looks like a great start against Jacksonville this week. He’s not been worth an every-week start for the majority of this year, his game against the Titans was his first QB1 game since Week 4…when he played Jacksonville. The Jags are allowing the most fantasy points to QBs, the highest adjusted yards per attempt, and pressuring QBs at the second-lowest rate in the NFL.

🐈‍⬛ I can’t believe I’m doing this…but Bryce Young might be startable this week against Tampa. They are allowing the second most points to quarterbacks this year, it’s an in-division matchup, and they are middle-of-the-pack in pressure and N/YA. He’s rushed for an average of 25 yards a game in his last two and is coming off of an impressive game against Kansas City. Could he be turning things around?

🟡 Despite his last two games being underwhelming, I think Russell Wilson is in a bounce-back spot. Cincinnati has been a decent matchup for quarterbacks this year and I expect the Bengals to push Pittsburgh in this one with their playoff hopes on the line.

Running Backs

🏴‍☠️ Despite not being the team’s primary receiving back (or, so we think), Bucky Irving has only had one game with fewer than 15 PPR points (and 11 in half-PPR) since Week 6. Both he and Rachaad White are worthy starts this week regardless of format against the Panthers this week. We’ve targeted their lowly rushing defense all year, and I don’t see a reason to stop now. As a cherry on top for Irving, inside the Red Zone this season, he has more than double the carries of White. So when Tampa gets in close, Irving has been the guy (2TD from the 1-yard line incoming for Sean Tucker).

🐈‍⬛ On the flip side, and forgive me I’ve talked about this game a lot, Chuba Hubbard looks like a great play against Tampa. They aren’t the most forgiving on the ground (not that they can’t be beaten there) but they are a great matchup through the air. Tampa is tied for the most receptions allowed to running backs and second in receiving yards allowed to the position. He had five targets last week, don’t forget that. He just caught one of them, which is a downer. Jonathon Brooks may factor in more this week, but they are taking him extremely slow, giving Hubbard more appeal.

🐎 Jonathan Taylor should bounce back this week. It’s been a bit rough for the guy the last few games, but New England should give up some nice plays to Taylor. They are allowing the seventh most rushing yards to running backs and over a touchdown per game to the position (rush and receiving TD combined).

Wide Receivers

🟡 Receivers aligned out wide have scored 71% of the total WR points against Cincinnati since Week 7. George Pickens has averaged 85 yards and 0.75 TD against the Bengals in his career and is playing 80% of his snaps out wide.

🐄 If I think C.J. Stroud is a good play, obviously, his receivers are too. And yes, I think Nico Collins is a great start this week (duh), but I think Tank Dell is too. And it’s been tough to trust Tank this year. I get it. I have him in leagues too. But Jacksonville is allowing the fourth-most points to receivers this season, and Nico (probably) can’t catch everything. It’s been interesting, his catchable target rate hasn’t risen that dramatically, only three percentage points, but his ADOT has dropped 28%. In other words, despite having a shorter target depth, Stroud isn’t hitting him with any meaningful increase in accuracy. Jacksonville might give them a chance to finally get on the same page.

🎖️ On paper, the Titans do not appear to be a great matchup for Terry McLaurin. But, I want to provide some hope. First off, I do think the Titans will make this game interesting and push the Commanders. Second, they are a pass-funnel defense. Third, Tennessee is actually an above-average matchup for outside receivers.

⛏️ Here are some receivers who have more total yards than Deebo Samuel this year: Jakobi Meyers, Josh Downs, Jaylen Waddle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, and Jerry Jeudy. And yes the first three guys I started to write down all had “J” as the first letter in their name so I just went with a theme. Meyers plays for Las Vegas. Downs has Anthony Richardson throwing him the ball and missed time. Waddle dea with Tua’s absence. Jeudy had Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball to start the year. JSN and Jamo had doubters after an underwhelming rookie year (or rookie year+). Buffalo has not been kind to receivers here recently and Deebo has to deal with another “J”: Jauan Jennings. Brock Purdy is still limited in practice and that also caps his upside further. It’s tough and risky, but sitting Samuel might be your best option this week if possible.

Tight Ends

🏴‍☠️ Cade Otton is going to get back on track this week, I can feel it. Last week he had a bad week and it coincided with Mike Evans's return, but the Giants have been a tough matchup for tight ends this year, Tampa got up big, and Otton was emerging as a TE1 with Evans and Godwin on the field earlier this year anyway. Carolina has allowed the most points to the tight end position so far this year and the Bucs are hanging on to their playoff lives. Because their defense has been such a pushover I do expect Carolina to keep the pace (at least somewhat) and that will lead to more passing attempts by Baker Mayfield to get his tight end the ball.

Hunter Henry gets a nice matchup against the Colts this week. Indy has allowed the fourth most touchdowns to tight ends this year and he leads all New England pass catchers in Red Zone targets with 13. No other Patriot WR or TE has more than 5!

That’s all for this week, thanks for stopping by!

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