NFL Week 10 Start, Sit, and More!

What’s going on everyone?

That Thursday night football game was awesome! For about half of the fantasy football population, anyway. If you had a player in that game, you’re probably feeling good to start off your week. If you didn’t, and even if you DID, and played against Ja’Marr Chase, I am sorry.

I have a dynasty league where my team needs rebuilding and is in last place. My projected score this week is 95 points. My opponent had Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. He scored 93 points. He could very well win with just two players. 🤣 

I tried to go a little bit deeper with some of the plays and recommendations this week. Some are very deep. 

Things to look out for in Week 10

Quarterbacks

🦁 It’s long been discussed that Jared Goff does better at home than on the road. But this year, he’s been surprisingly good on the road, with finishes of QB19, 4, 11, and 27 in four road games this year. The QB27 finish was last week in Green Bay in a monsoon, so take that with a grain of salt. He still completed nearly 82% of his passes in that game. This week, he gets Houston who has been a favorable matchup for QBs this year.

🏙️ Meanwhile, Daniel Jones hates playing home games. But, he finally got over his home-game no-touchdown slump against Washington last week. When playing away from New York, Jones has finishes of QB6, 11, 11, and 32, with the 32 coming against Pittsburgh which is the third-worst matchup for quarterbacks. He should be just fine against Carolina this week, who are dead last in pressure rate and allow the highest net yards per attempt in the league.

⚡️ Guys, according to FantasyPros, Justin Herbert is only rostered in 52% of redraft leagues. Since the Chargers bye week, he has been the QB8 in fantasy. HC John Harbaugh figured out he has a Pro-Bowler at QB and decided to make use of him. The Titans’ secondary doesn’t present as much of a threat as they used to with the amount of injuries they’ve sustained. We’ll get into a receiver matchup in a minute.

Running Backs

⛏️ Christian McCaffrey is coming back to a great matchup against Tampa Bay. The Bucs have given up the second-most receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. While I’m on the subject, the Bucs defense has been bleeding points to skill position players. They’ve allowed the most points to QBs, seventh to RBs and WRs, and third most to TEs. Start your 49ers against Tampa Bay.

🐈‍⬛ Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks get a nice matchup against the Giants this week. New York is allowing the most rushing yards per carry in the NFL and the sixth most rushing yards to running backs this year. I lean in favor of the newly extended Hubbard, mostly because Brooks will have an unknown workload in his NFL debut. I am curious to see how he looks and performs. It’ll give us our first insights into his NFL future.

I’m just gonna leave this here about Tyrone Tracy, who is on the other side of the ball in the Carolina-New York game:

🔥 It might be tough sledding for Tony Pollard this week. The Chargers defense has been legit, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs. They do allow a good amount of receptions, but they aren’t especially generous in giving up receiving yards. They’ve also only given up two touchdowns to running backs this year. He’s worth starting as an RB2, but I’d temper expectations.

🤠 I’m having trouble getting on board with Rico Dowdle this week (but I am having to start him in a league). Philadelphia hasn’t been friendly to running backs this year, allowing the third-fewest points to the running back position. They are also tied with the Chargers for fewest scores allowed to running backs this year. In a broken offense with a backup quarterback, I’m not overly optimistic.

Wide Receivers

🪓 Justin Jefferson gets to go up against the Jaguars this week, who give up the fourth most yards per game and fifth most points to receivers on the year. But notably, they give up a disproportional amount of points to receivers lined up out wide. That will help Jordan Addison.

🐆 On the opposite side of the field, Brian Thomas Jr. has a decent matchup against the Vikings and would be in a great position except for one thing, he’s playing with a backup QB. But, Mac Jones is a capable backup. He had his struggles in New England, but let’s not pretend he had the greatest surrounding cast during his tenure there. I think Thomas should be fine with Jones, and I think Evan Engram is a good start too.

⚡️ I want to point out two slot receivers we should target this week: Ladd McConkey and Josh Downs. Tennessee and Buffalo are both above-average matchups for slot receivers. For McConkey, he gets a nice matchup against a beat-up secondary. Downs, on the other hand, is the Colts’ unquestioned WR1 with Michael Pittman out. He is going to get peppered with targets. 🐴 

🐈‍⬛ Xavier Legette's saving grace has been his touchdown receptions in the past two weeks. He’s only accumulated 67 yards on eight catches in the last two weeks, but thankfully has a touchdown in each of those games. Against the Giants, he might find more room to roam, but I’m only cautiously optimistic. New York hasn’t been a bad matchup for receivers, but they aren’t a plus one, to be honest. He’s worth a dart throw in deeper formats as Carolina’s top target, but he’s admittedly tough to trust.

🐎 I’m getting into deep, deep sleeper category here, but I wanted to throw a name out there. Courtland Sutton is rightly going to get a lot of attention as Bo Nix’s top receiver, but I wanted to throw out Devaughn Vele as an option this week. 61% of the points scored by wideouts against Kansas City have come out of the slot. Vele has run routes out of the slot at a nearly 79% rate. He hasn’t gotten the same sort of target share he had in his first two career games, but should Vele take advantage of the matchup, we could see a decent number of targets heading his way.

🤠 One thing I am watching this week is how CeeDee Lamb does with Cooper Rush. The last time we saw CD to Rush connection was back in 2022 when Rush stepped in for five games for Dak Prescott. Lamb was the WR9 in half-PPR during that stretch, but this team is not as dynamic. It stands to reason Lamb is the engine of the offense, but can he sustain elite production while dealing with a shoulder injury? Can Rush get him the ball behind a weaker Dallas line? All this right in the fantasy football stretch run is not what fantasy managers were hoping for.

Tight Ends

🏙️ I really like Theo Johnson this week at the tight end position. He has three catches in four of his last five games and caught his first touchdown last week. Carolina has allowed the most touchdowns as well as the fifth most yards per reception to TEs this year.

⛪️ The Saints have no one to throw to downfield. Rashid Shaheed is out for the year and Bub Means is on IR. Chris Olave and Cedric Wilson are out. The receiving options are Mason Tipton, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Jermaine Jackson. Enter Juwan Johnson. Johnson hasn’t been racking up a lot of catches or yards, but is he a viable option with the Saints having so few options? Absolutely. It’s probably a combination of Jennings, Taysom Hill, and Alvin Kamara leading the charge against Atlanta this week.

🐬 Lastly, we have a name you don’t usually consider as a start, but Jonnu Smith needs to be spoken about. He’s had at least six targets and four receptions in each of his last three games, and now faces a Rams defense that allows 11.8 yards per reception to tight ends (2nd most in the league). A four-for-48 line from a tight end with some touchdown upside is completely fine in this economy.

That’s all for this week!

Join the Ballfield Banter Discord now!