Late Round Best Ball Targets

I had this planned for a while, but debated on whether or not to actually write it because best ball values change so often.

I’m going to focus on players drafted after pick 144, so Round 13 and later. It’s a fairly large group, and not all values will be the same. A player taken in Round 13 is a better shot to hit than Round 18, but both are still dart throws.

With that, let’s do it!

Late-Round Best Ball Targets

🎯 Targets 🎯 

QB: Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields

🟠 Deshaun Watson is a name that causes divisiveness in the fantasy community. Many people say he’s washed up, and they have every right to believe that. His return from suspension in 2022 was mixed at best, and 2023 was injury-riddled. It just hasn’t been a good start to his tenure in Cleveland.

However, last season in games where Watson played the majority of the snaps, he was the QB5, 27, 10, 8, and 14. There are certainly questions surrounding him, whether he will continue to run, his accuracy, and his ability to bounce back. But if you’re looking for a ceiling outcome, especially in best ball, why not shoot for upside? If he still runs and puts up decent passing numbers, especially since his receiving options are more than capable, why can’t he outproduce his ADP of QB21?

Daniel Jones was having a decent start to 2023, completing nearly 69% of his passes while throwing to nobody save Saquon Barkley. It’s true, before going down with an injury, he really didn’t do anything for your fantasy teams. But why not take the shot? The Giants drafted an uber-talented Malik Nabers 🐯 to give Jones a WR1 he hasn’t had since…I can’t find anyone to note really. Early career Darius Slayton? End of career Golden Tate?

Nabers is by far the best receiver Jones has ever had, Slayton is still around, speedster Jalin Hyatt is more experienced, and New York also drafted athletic tight end Theo Johnson. DJ finished as a QB1 in 2022 despite throwing less than a touchdown per game thanks to his rushing ability. I’d imagine we’re going to see an uptick in his passing numbers this season.

Shooting for ceiling here, and quite honestly, what other quarterback can give you the type of numbers Justin Fields 🔨 can this late in a draft? He’s not the starter as of writing, but if he was named the starter right now you can bet his draft price would quickly skyrocket multiple rounds. He brings league-winning upside should he come in for Russell Wilson, which I think is a matter of time. My favorite time to grab Fields is when I am drafting a 3 QB build, or I am using an elite QB with a late bye week to give time for Fields to overtake Wilson and cover for the bye.

RB: Jaylen Wright, Ray Davis, Tyrone Tracy, Will Shipley Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Trey Sermon

🐬 Jaylen Wright landed in the perfect spot for him, a lot like teammate De’Von Achane did last year. He’s a smaller back, but he’s fast and could see a decent size workload should Achane or Raheem Mostert miss time. Mostert has managed to stay largely healthy since coming to Miami, but he still has an injury history. Achane has already missed games in his young career, so he’s not the perfect bill of health either. You’re injury-prone until you aren’t, but given history, grabbing Wright might bring some nice returns should one or both of Achane and Mostert miss time.

Ray Davis and Tyrone Tracy seem projected to find some sort of work in their offense. Both could be pass-catching options in their offenses. In half-PPR or full-PPR formats? Sign me up!

As far as the other three, Will Shipley, CEH, and Sermon 🐴 all seem to be the favorite, or at least most capable, back on their respective team to shoulder the load should anything happen to the starter. Sermon is getting a lot of praise from the Colts’ camp, and CEH has done it before.

WR: Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin, Michael Wilson, DeMario Douglas

No one has any idea who will be the Steelers WR2. Why can’t it be Roman Wilson? His college production wasn’t extraordinary, even when accounting for the offense he was in. But the depth chart is wide open and he appears to be the type of guy who will work his butt off to improve his game.

It’s tough to bet on fourth-round talent, despite some of the guys who have emerged out of there in the last several years. Courtland Sutton is in Denver, but maybe we get some college QB/WR magic with the pairing of Bo Nix and Troy Franklin? 🏇 Sutton can’t catch everything, Marvin Mims is an unknown, and Josh Reynolds is who he is. Franklin might be a smaller receiver, but he put up good numbers in college and could see that chemistry translates to the pros.

🇺🇸 DeMario Douglas is getting disrespected. No, he’s not a world-beater, but he is a consistent receiver who provides a baseline of points for your team. He’s not going to become a WR2 all of a sudden, but can he outproduce a lot of guys around his ADP of WR79? You bet. He accumulated at least 5 catches or 50 yards in six of his final nine games in 2023. Again, no world-beating upside here, but I don’t think he’s going to fade away.

Tight End: Luke Musgrave, Tyler Conklin, Theo Johnson, Greg Dulcich, Donald Parham Jr.

For the tight end position, you’re hoping something sticks. There aren’t a lot of great options past the top 12, Dalton Schultz being my favorite and he’s TE13 by ADP right now. So basically after TE13, I don’t have a huge lean.

🧀 Musgrave showed flashes for Green Bay, and no one has really separated themselves from the rest, so the opportunity to garner a large target share is wide open.

Conklin is just a reliable 5-7 points on a given week. Fine enough for an elite TE build with him as you’re TE2, or throw him in 3 TE builds as the more “safe” option.

Johnson, Dulcich, and Parham could become the second option in their passing games, which is critical if you think the offense is either low passing volume or a bad offense in general. ⚡️ 

That’s all I have for now! Thanks for reading and I will see you next week! If you haven’t seen it already, I’m now on TikTok so go check it out!