Interpreting Preseason Hype

Hello everyone! What’s happening? We had REAL football last week with the Hall of Fame game in Canton between the Browns and Jets, albeit with the backups. It featured backups, sure, but it was still great to see some football being played.

I’ll actually be referencing the Hall of Fame game some more during the rest of this newsletter. I wasn’t planning on talking about preseason hype and how to navigate it, I had another subject in mind.

But I wasn’t able to devote the kind of time I wanted to in order to write about my planned subject. Life happens! So instead of giving you a rushed, quickly researched article, I thought I’d share some tips on how to best sift through the tsunami of information we absorb every day with training camp videos, coach speak, “camp stats”, and the like. A lot of emotions are attached to players we like, and it’s easy to let them take over when seeing them in action. I want to help you curb that and think critically about a player, so you can see their situation as it truly is.

Tips for Interpreting Camp Hype

There are few hard and fast rules, unfortunately. Some hype pieces you can throw out easily, while others require discretion. Here are the things that I personally pay attention to or disregard.

• Realize almost everyone looks good in practice. Everyone and their brother are making those highlight catches you’re seeing on Twitter (X now?). Don’t fall for a player based on some crazy receptions they make.

• I do like seeing a quarterback consistently target a wide receiver or tight end during 11-on-11 drills. A video was released of the Browns offense during that type of drill and Deshaun Watson was often looking Elijah Moore’s way, sparking my interest. I already liked Moore the talent, it’s not as if he’s coming out of nowhere, but he may be supplanting himself over Donovan Peoples-Jones as the WR2 for the offense (I still like DPJ though don’t get me wrong).

• You’ll often hear veterans coming off of a down year are “in the best shape of their life”. Please don’t fall for that. Every year this happens and we’re usually disappointed in their production come game time.

• Camp “stats” such as “he went 10-14 passing in 11-on-11 drills, with 1 TD and 2 INTs” are fine, but don’t read into them too heavily. Quarterbacks are encouraged to attempt throws they might not usually attempt in-game, leading to more interceptions. The good news is, training camp interceptions are not hurting them. Unless reports come out where a player is really struggling and consistently having issues with turnovers. Then you can start to worry.

• Clips of players doing regular drills don’t really make an impact on me. Maybe you get a glimpse of explosiveness or shiftiness but it’s hard to glean much from them.

• Watch who runs with the 1’s. Could a player get more playing time than we originally thought? Running with the first team consistently certainly hints at it.

When it comes to preseason games, everyone is trying to impress so they can make the roster. In the case of the Browns and Jets games, John Kelly likely made his case for a roster spot. He’s probably fourth of the depth chart but I was impressed by his ability. Demetria Felton to me is the defacto third RB, because he’s been in Cleveland. He did play in the second half with the third team though, unlike guys like Cedric Tillman, Kellen Mond, and Kelly.

During preseason it’s all about who is being run with the first team and who is being held out when they come off. They’re probably going to be featured in some capacity in the regular season.

Taking Action

So who are some guys who appear to be having a great camp?

Deneric Prince is one of them. Unfortunately for him, the Chiefs still have Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon on the roster. I don’t see how he hasn’t secured a roster spot, especially if he is the future replacement for McKinnon. He’s a stash for now but probably won’t do much for fantasy in 2023.

Puka Nacua is another one. Often the competition mentioned for the Rams’ WR3 spot is Tutu Atwell, but Atwell has spent two years in the NFL doing, well, not much. Nacua is a productive WR out of BYU and is a much larger target than Atwell, giving the Rams some much-needed size on the outside.

Elijah Moore, Michael Wilson, Treylon Burks, Sam LaPorta, and others are all having great training camps. LaPorta has the steepest learning curve being a tight end, but it seems he’s already secured the starting job, a victory in itself. Nothing can help you learn a position quicker than actual playing time.

Not so great camp? There are only a few names that I’m really willing to say “NOPE” when it comes to camp news. Baker Mayfield is one of them. I preferred Kyle Trask from the outset and that has yet to change. Aging players like Allen Robinson, Adam Theilen, and even Odell Beckham are difficult for me to buy into. Other than that, I take a “wait and see” approach rather than dismiss players outright.

That will do it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter! If you have any questions don’t hesitate to send me a message at [email protected] anytime! We’ll get into some fantasy draft strategy next week! Looking forward to it!