The Importance of Rushing Quarterbacks

When playing fantasy football, you’re in it to win it. At least I hope you are and not in it to mediocre it. Or do good it. Anyway, I’m getting off track. Everyone is looking for an edge over the competition. The next breakout. A sleeper pick who could be in for a big year. Avoiding the guys who are in danger of busting.

It’s no different with quarterbacks. I’m all for the mid-later round QB strategy where I avoid the early guys (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts) and try to find value later. It could be an undervalued guy or just a guy I think is in for a good year.

But I should also take note of one aspect of the quarterbacks I’m looking at past the top three options: rushing upside.

Ever since Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season, fantasy managers have valued rushing production more and more. Top-tier quarterbacks are pricier than ever, often going in the second round.

And for good reason, though I do think they’re a little overpriced. But not by much. Rushing quarterbacks are a fantasy football cheat code, and finding any edge is crucial to putting your team over the top. So that’s what we’re going to discuss today. We’re going to talk about what you need to look for in a QB that doesn’t rely on MVP levels of passing numbers to be a difference-maker for your team.

Before we begin, I should mention all the data used for this newsletter is from FantasyPros. Now let’s dive in!

The Importance of Rushing Quarterbacks

We’re going to look at quarterbacks from several different perspectives, trying to figure out exactly what we need to look for as far as rushing upside goes.

I examined quarterbacks from several different perspectives. Yards, rushing PPG, and touchdowns scored. I’ll start with touchdowns because it’s the easiest to get out of the way.

Unless your name is Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, your touchdown production is likely going to fluctuate year-to-year. Kyler Murray had totals of 3, 5, 11, and 4 rushing touchdowns in the past four years. He’s missed some time due to injury, but it’s safe to say 11 touchdowns is an outlier.

And he’s not the only one where we see fluctuation. Rushing scores for quarterbacks (aside from guys like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or maybe Justin Fields) are hard to predict. You can have a quarterback who is mobile but just doesn’t score a lot on the ground.

It’s unlikely for the inverse to be true: a quarterback scoring a lot of rushing touchdowns with minimal rushing production. Because if they aren’t scrambling or being used as a runner between the 20’s, it’s unlikely they are going to change things up near the goalline.

I didn’t notice any trends that indicated a high touchdown total was necessary for a high-end QB1 finish, though it certainly doesn’t hurt. If you really wanted a baseline number to look for, about three rushing scores a year is a good benchmark from the data I saw.

Is rushing yards a good indicator?

We’re going to build on the touchdown number from above and expand further. How do rushing yards fit into the equation? Well, here’s a fun chart for you.

Here is where every Top 6 quarterback since 2019 finished in terms of rushing yards and scores. I feel rushing yards are much easier to project than scores, and it looks like a reasonable benchmark to hit is 250 rushing yards.

Below that, you’re needing an outlier passing season to become a Top 6 QB in fantasy. What’s crazy about the four seasons that were below 250 rush yards is that three of them were in 2021. Here were the seasons:

• Tom Brady passed for 5316 yards and 43 TD

• Matthew Stafford threw for 4886 yards and 41 TD

• Aaron Rodgers threw 37 TD and only 4 INTs

The other outlier was Aaron Rodgers's 2020 season where he threw for 48 touchdowns. So in other words, unless you have some crazy outlier passing season, you’re going to need a quarterback who averages around 15 rushing yards per game over a 17-game season.

Looking at QBs using PPG

So we’re continuing to build on stuff we saw previously, where you’d want a 250-yard season as a baseline mark for a Top 6 fantasy quarterback. Let’s see quarterbacks rushing PPG since 2019.

Once again, you can see outlier seasons of Rodgers, Stafford, and Brady. Of our sample of 24 quarterbacks, 19 of them are at or above 2.5 rushing PPG, a 79% rate.

To give you an idea of what 2.5 PPG looks like, Geno Smith ran for 366 yards and a score in 2022 to average 2.5 PPG. Do you want to know what else it looks like?

Rushing for 250 yards and three scores.

What about QB1 performances as a whole?

All this information is well and good. Cool in order for us to get a Top 6 QB, we need to be looking for a guy to get about 250 rushing yards and/or 2.5 PPG on the ground. But why does it matter? How does that compare to the rest of the field of quarterbacks?

Assuming a twelve-team single QB league, you’ve got 48 potential QB1s over since 2019 (top twelve QBs times four years). Here is what QB1 rushing PPG and yards look like over that stretch.

While 79% of the top 6 QBs were over 2.5 rushing PPG, that number drops to 58% of the top 12 quarterbacks as a whole. It’s much easier to get into the top 12 based on passing stats alone than it is to get into the top 6.

One more thing before I leave this section. The nice thing about rushing production is it covers up bad passing production so even a “bad” passer can still be a useful fantasy QB. Daniel Jones score 7.1 PPG on the ground in 2022 for a QB9 finish. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson made up for their lack of passing production by rushing in 2021 and 2020 respectively.

What quarterbacks should I target?

Before I continue, I want to say that naturally, a good, high-end quarterback is also good at passing. If you’re not a good (or at least average) passer, you’re not going to be on the field for long. Passing and rushing work hand-in-hand, but the true ceiling performances often come due to rushing upside.

At the top of the target list, you have guys like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. Justin Fields has a strong case to be in the top six QBs given his enormous rushing potential. Joe Burrow is no slouch in the passing or rushing game.

But some other guys who are underrated scramblers are guys like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Both quarterbacks have new additions to their offense, giving them even more ammunition.

Despite coming off of a down year Deshaun Watson is another name to watch. But further down the list, I think guys like Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson have outside shots at Top 6 potential.

“All of those are known commodities,” you say. “What are some interesting names who could rise to the top?” I’m glad you asked. It’s extremely hard for a lower-ranked QB to get into the top six quarterbacks, so what about guys who could have a top-12 finish and be a draft day value?

My favorites are Sam Howell, Geno Smith, and Ryan Tannehill. Howell is the “dark horse” in this scenario, as we have seen little of him and the Commanders may use Jacoby Brissett as well. But I like what I’ve seen from Howell so far. Smith and Tannehill have been QB1s before, and with their offenses adding weapons, they could continue to be in the top twelve.

Final Thoughts

When you’re in your fantasy draft, ask yourself “What kind of rushing upside does this guy have? Does he have top 6 potential? Can I reasonably expect some sort of rushing production from them week in and week out? Do they have what it takes to be a potential difference-maker?”

Just because you draft a quarterback who fits most, if not all, of these qualifications, doesn’t mean he will finish top 6. He could end up as a very safe and reliable QB1, which is fine. The key is to give yourself a chance at a ceiling performance rather than banking on a pure passer having a great year. Aim for upside and a potential difference-making player.

News and Notes

Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are both out for a while with injuries. We can’t have nice things, can we?

Joe Burrow dealing with a calf injury. He’ll be out for several weeks but should be fine come the regular season. I’m not scared to draft him.

Josh Downs got some good hands. One of my favorite receivers coming out of the draft, really hoping he does well.

Quentin Johnston struggling with drops. It’s just one day, and we’ve seen receivers struggle with drops before and be fine for fantasy (JaMarr Chase and Diontae Johnson, for example)

Jonathan Taylor struggling with Colts management. Yikes, what the heck is going on here? They don’t want to trade him, but they don’t want to pay him. It’s a mess. He’s tough to evaluate in drafts right now.

That’s all for this week! We’ll be talking draft strategy next week as fantasy football gets into full swing! If you’ve got any questions or suggestions for me, don’t hesitate to send me a message at [email protected]!