Finding Elite Quarterbacks, 2024 Ed.

This was one of the most popular newsletters I had last year, and honestly, one of the most fun to write. I’m getting this out a bit earlier than I did last year, as it came in the beginning of August in 2023. However, due to circumstances, I won’t be available to write for a short period, so I am doing this now. However, I do have a newsletter planned for you during my “break” so you won’t have to go too long without hearing from me!

Then again, not hearing from me might be seen as a blessing. Either way, I have some things in store.

The rise of rushing quarterbacks really came into full focus in 2019 with Lamar Jackson and his incredible MVP season. It’s been no secret since then that rushing quarterbacks provide you with a “cheat code” for fantasy and that to reach the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks you almost have to run.

It’s important to note that in the data samples that we’re going over today, you’ll see a lot of the same repeat guys, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, etc. Those four often occupy three to four of the top fantasy QB finishes over the last several years, so it’s really a conversation of who else can join them in the “elite” category.

But not even they will always finish in the Top-6 at their position. Jackson has struggled with injury in recent years and Mahomes just saw his worst season as a starter…and still finished as the QB8. Either way, what is the makeup of an elite, difference-making Top-6 QB? What about a potential sleeper who could finish 2024 as a QB1? We’re going to look at it all today.

I understand I made a commitment to be much more clear, concise, and beginner-friendly, with a hint of helping people take the next step in fantasy football, just last week. This newsletter is a bit more of the “next step” level, but it’s well worth the read for any and all fantasy players. Share it with your friends and family!

The Importance of Rushing Quarterbacks, 2024 Ed.

Much like last year, I dove into quarterbacks rushing yards per game (YPG), points per game (PPG), attempts, and yards. I also looked at their total touchdowns (passing and rushing) to see if we could find an edge there after listening to JJ Zachariason’s best ball podcast with Mark Garcia. Mark made a point about the key to finding the QB1 in a given year is looking at who might score 40 total touchdowns. So I’m going to piggyback off of that as well.

Why? Because while this article is about examining rushing quarterbacks, there are outliers who will score in total, or even simply pass for, 40 touchdowns. In essence, we are examining the makeup of an elite fantasy QB season with a lean toward how rushing can improve a QB’s chances.

Our elite sample includes every Top-6 season since 2019 for a grand total of 30 quarterback seasons. For the second data set, we have every QB1 (top-12 fantasy quarterback) since 2019, for a total of 60 quarterbacks.

I did my best to recap each section with a quick actionable point, and at the end, I provided a list of guys I think can hit certain thresholds this year.

What Are We Looking For Exactly?

To finish as a Top-6 quarterback, it’s implied you know how to throw the football. 22 of the 30 elite quarterbacks threw over 30 touchdowns in a season in addition to running the ball. Only four had fewer than 25 touchdown passes. However, just like we’ll see later with the larger group of QB1’s, you can make up for a “lack” of passing touchdowns with rushing. So what’s a good baseline to look for?

Last year, I discovered as a benchmark you want a quarterback to have around 250 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns a year, or about 2.5 rushing PPG.

I modified what I was looking for slightly this year because touchdowns can have a lot of variance to them, and I wanted something a little more stable. Rushing attempts were what I landed on. Of our 30 quarterback sample, 70% of them had 3 or more rushing touchdowns. However, 83% of them had 50 or more rushing attempts. 76% of our sample had 250 or more rushing yards. 🤯 

Most of those in our data set who didn’t meet those two thresholds had outlier passing seasons. In 2023, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott joined the outlier list, but to their credit, they rushed for 50-247-4 and 55-242-2 respectively. Brock Purdy was the “true outlier” in 2023, with a rushing stat line of 31-144-2.

I hope you noticed something when I wrote Love and Prescott’s numbers. While they narrowly missed the 250 rushing yard mark, they did get to at least 50 rushing attempts. 😲

So in short, does a quarterback have a tendency to scramble? Maybe not always designed runs, but at least a willingness to pick up a few yards per game? 50 attempts for 250 yards is only 2.9 attempts for 14.7 yards per game in a 17-game season. If a QB happens to add a couple of scores on the ground, you’re looking right at 2.5 rushing PPG, in line with my findings last year.

One thing I’d like to mention here before moving on at the risk of data overload. The eight guys who didn’t throw for more than 30 touchdowns I mentioned in passing? Seven of them either ran for 9 touchdowns and/or at least 819 rushing yards. That fact will come in handy later when talking about top-6 candidates. 🔍️ 

To recap: Even a slight bit of rushing upside to go along with above-average/elite passing ability gives you an easy way to spot potential top-six guys.

What about Top-12 Quarterbacks?

Naturally, it’s much easier to break into the Top-12 quarterbacks as a pocket passer than it is in the top six. Here are the rushing numbers for QB1’s since 2019:

When you take into account all QB1’s, the rate of quarterbacks with 50 or more rushing attempts in a season drops from 83% for the elites, to 61.7%. That’s quite a substantial drop! Naturally, QBs with 250 or more rushing yards see a similar drop in occurrences.

However, rushing production among the top-12 quarterbacks is still important. While it’s easier for a pure pocket passer to finish in the top 12 than the top six, it’s also easier for a below-average passer to finish as a QB1 as long as he can run. Sam Howell might have been a bit of a disappointment as a passer in 2023, but his 3.5 rushing PPG helped him to a QB12 finish. That’s right. Sam Howell was a QB1. 🎖️ 

Daniel Jones finished as the QB9 in 2022 on the back of 7.1 rush PPG. In 2021, it was Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray in backend QB1 territory, their rushing numbers even making up for missing a few games (to be fair their passing numbers weren’t bad either).

To recap: QB1’s don’t always need rushing production. Plenty of pocket passers finish as QB1s, but a weaker passer can still finish inside of the top 12 with the help of rushing.

What about the total touchdowns?

This is where both pocket passers and rushers have a fair shot. Getting to 40 total touchdowns is not easy, even for QB’s who run. But, since 2019, the overall QB1 spot has been held every single year by someone who has scored 40+ touchdowns:

I get it’s just a five-year sample, but it is interesting to note that unless you can score 40 touchdowns, your odds of a QB1 overall finish are slim to none. At worst, you can finish as the QB8. At best?

12 of our QB’s with over 40 touchdowns finished as a top-5 option at the position. Only four finished QB6 and at worst QB8. I get this is a stupid simple analysis “Big TD numbers mean good things”, but this causes you to ponder the question, does “QB X” have a legitimate shot at 40 touchdowns?

To recap: If you want to be the QB1, score 4️⃣0️⃣+ TD.

Tying it all Together

In summary, we’ve found out several things. In order to be a Top-6 fantasy quarterback, you’re looking for a guy who can get around 2.5 rushing PPG or 50 rush attempts for ~250 yards to go along with his passing work, because you need to be elite in both. Hopefully, he comes with touchdown upside.

For QB1’s, you’re looking at players with rushing upside once more, even if their passing ability might be in question. The baseline helps cover some of their inefficiencies as a passer and gives them a weekly floor with the potential for blow-up games should they fall into the endzone.

When searching for guys who can be the overall QB1, it’s important to take into account everything, but ask yourself “Can they score 40 total touchdowns?”

To help out, I thought I’d give you a list of some guys who I think can fit into one of these three types of categories: Top-6, Top-12, and No.1 overall.

Top-6 QB Candidates

• 🐎 Anthony Richardson: I suspect he would fit in with the guys who pass for 25 or fewer passing TDs, but make up for it with their rushing production. The 800 yard rushing mark and/or 9 rushing touchdowns to aid him in a top-6 finish is easily in his range of outcomes.

• 🧀 Jordan Love: He already had a QB5 finish last year, and his receivers all are going into at least their second year in the NFL, no more rookie talk here. It’s wheels up for Love and the Packers.

• 🐦️ Kyler Murray: Murray has the ability to run his way to a top-6 finish quite easily if he can stay healthy. What I said for Richardson above applies here to Murray as well. Plus, the rise of Trey McBride and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr should only aid his case for 25+ touchdown passes this year.

Top-12 QB Candidates

• 🎖️ Jayden Daniels: The Heisman winner out of LSU can run. Even if his passing is mediocre to start his NFL career, he can easily make up for it with his rushing.

• ⚡️ Justin Herbert: People forget that Herbert can run. He’s rushed for at least 228 yards and three touchdowns in three of his four NFL seasons, plus he’s a very good passer. Even in an offense projected to run the ball at a high rate, too many people are discounting his ability.

• 🟠 Deshaun Watson: I get it, nobody wants him. He’s been injured so much. But if he manages to stay healthy, he could surprise people. In the five games where he played the majority of the snaps in 2023, he was worse than the QB14 once with three top-10 finishes.

No.1 Overall Candidates

• 🐅 Joe Burrow: Burrow threw for 34 and 35 touchdowns in his two healthy seasons as the Bengals quarterback. With Cincy chasing a ring and looking to get back into dominance, a revenge tour is on the cards.

• 🏹 Patrick Mahomes: The guy has finished as the overall QB1 more than once in his career. He also is coming off of his worst season as a passer in his career. Kansas City added weapons to the offense and the Chiefs are looking to three-peat. 2023 was also his first season as a starter where he failed to score on the ground. Expect that to change in 2024 as well. What more needs to be said?

• 🐄 CJ Stroud: I thought I’d go dark horse here. Stroud is coming off of the best rookie season we’ve seen in the last few years, arguably ever. The “Sophmore Slump” could get him (Justin Herbert was the overall QB2 in his second year with 41 total TDs, no slump detected), but the Texans added Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs to the team to bolster his weapons and their offensive firepower. What’s keeping him from lighting up defenses?

I hope you enjoyed it, learned some new things, and will come back for more. Until next time!