- Ballfield Banter
- Posts
- Fantasy Draft Tips and Tricks
So I wanted to go for a two-for-one this week, some draft tips and tricks, and then go into a short player profile on a guy I’m rising on. I posted about him on Twitter (X?) but I wanted to go into a little more detail here, or at least have it flow better than a thread!
I also have our weekly news and notes, headlined by Jonathan Taylor asking for a trade.
Tips and Tricks for Your Draft
Be aware of your league scoring! Super simple yet has a massive impact. Standard? RB early for sure. PPR? Maybe focus on WRs a little more.
Be fluid, not rigid, with your draft strategy. Even in PPR formats, if you like the value top RB’s are giving you early on, take them. Don’t get stuck on a single strategy, take what the draft gives you.
If you go TE early, go QB late, or vice versa. Don’t do both because you will hurt RB or WR, who you usually start more of. Its also fine to grab a QB in say, the 6th round and then a TE in the 7th or 8th. I don’t define that as “early”. Early to me is within the first three or four rounds.
Remember the ARob Rule, named after Allen Robinson. Wideouts who have shown a decline in play or are older and coming off of injuries who switch teams are bad bets to pay off. Think of guys like Julio Jones, ARob himself, Robert Woods, etc. Guys who fit the ARob rule this year are guys like, well, ARob, Robert Woods, Adam Theilen, and Odell Beckham. Take a shot on the younger guys in those offenses, Calvin Austin, Tank Dell/Nico Collins, Jonathan Mingo, or Bateman/Zay Flowers.
Unless it’s a top-tier handcuff like Jaylen Warren, Tajae Spears, or Jerome Ford, don’t draft your RB’s handcuff. Don’t handcuff guys like Alexander Mattison, Cam Akers, James Conner, or even Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler. They don’t have a clear-cut backup.
Make a queue of players in between your picks. It lessens the sting of getting sniped and helps you to think clearly about what player you will select next if you have several to choose from that are all within the same tier.
Draft kicker and DST last!!! You’ll probably have the most roster turnover at DST anyway. Kicker, you can kind of just ride it out with a guy who’s on a decent offense. DST, it’s best to stream favorable matchups.
Our short and sweet player preview for this week’s newsletter is a guy I’m liking more and more, he’s been on Philadelphia going on three seasons now and no it’s not Devonta Smith, it’s his teammate Kenneth Gainwell.
Gainwell has been receiving buzz for the past few weeks as the potential feature back for the Eagles offense, despite the early suspicion that that was Rashaad Penny’s job.
D’Andre Swift has emerged as the favorite pass-catching back, which makes sense. But I don’t see Gainwell getting out of the passing game entirely, he’s just too good in that role.
If it’s true that Gainwell is the Eagles’ RB1, he is grossly undervalued. Of the 71 running backs who had more than 25 carries and 10 targets in 2022, Gainwell had the fourth-best points per opportunity.
There’s a possibility, albeit a small one, Gainwell can get between 150-200 carries. I’d lean closer to the 150. If he can manage to achieve his 2021 target count of 50 and using his career catch rate, he will catch close to 36 passes for 270 receiving yards. Giving him a 150-carry workload at 4.5 yards per carry puts him at over 650 rushing yards.
Using those numbers and dropping his scoring efficiency a little, he is looking at scoring around 9 times. A full stat line of 150-660-7.5 TD rushing and 36-270-1.5 TD receiving gives him right at 10.8 PPR PGG over a 17-game season.
That kind of scoring average would have put him at RB30 in 2022. He’s currently being drafted as the RB64 on Sleeper as of August 18th. More than likely he has risen by the time this comes out, but he’s still a huge potential value.
News and Notes
Jonathan Taylor has officially been granted permission to seek a trade. If he is moved I will be sure to do a special reactionary newsletter covering the fantasy impact of the trade.
Josh Jacobs is expected back for the Raiders before week 1. Jacobs will be used in a workhorse role once he returns. Until he does, Zamir White is the most intriguing option in LV.
I can’t remember if this was in the last newsletter, but I don’t care, Sam Howell has been named Washington’s QB1! Now if he only gets enough of a leash to show what he’s got. Otherwise, his starting QB time will be short. Watch them draft Drake Maye for complete irony.
Isiah Pacheco is back at practice. Huzzah!
Elijah Moore is expected to have a big role in the Browns’ offense.
Roschon Johnson has been impressive in the preseason.
Tank Dell running a lot of outside routes. I wasn’t high on Nico Collins to start the season, but I’m rising on Collins and have always liked Dell.
Announcement!
I’ve got a two-fer! First off, they haven’t changed much, but check out my updated rankings!
Second, I’m launching a Ballfield Banter Discord and would love to have everyone on it! Eventually, it will become a premium (yet still affordable, I might add) service, but founding members will get it for free!
That’s all I have for today, until next time!
Reply