Draft Strategies: RB Heavy

Who’s ready to talk about some draft strategy? Be sure to bookmark this email, webpage, or whatever you’re using to read this so you can refer back to it. I’ve even got some special stuff for you towards the bottom so hang tight!

We’re going to focus mainly on the running back perspective. You’ve probably heard of RB-Heavy, Hero-RB, or the famous and all-powerful Zero-RB draft strategy. Notice they don’t say WR-Heavy, Hero-WR, or Zero-WR.

And that’s because the vast majority of leagues are switching over to a more WR-centric style of play, much like the actual NFL itself. You’re often in PPR leagues where you’re starting a minimum of three wideouts and a flex; who is often also a wideout.

But you still need running backs. So how do you approach them in drafts? That’s what we’re going to tackle RB Heavy today. And to make sure you are prepared for your drafts, I will be sending out a second newsletter on Friday to cover the other two strategies instead of having you wait till next week.

We had some big running back news on Monday, and I’ll briefly dive into the fantasy impact of the Zeke and Dalvin signings at the bottom of this newsletter. And for the first time, I’m sharing my own personal rankings for you to use, compare, dissect, or however you’d like to use them!

Our points per game data comes courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference. ADP data is from Fantasy Football Calculator. Now let’s dive in!

The In’s and Out’s of RB Heavy

The first style of drafting is running back heavy, and one you will see in a lot of casual home/work leagues, especially in standard scoring formats. Most of these strategies are “self-explanatory” as their name implies what you’re doing. It’s the how that is critical and requires some explanation.

Wide receiver is as deep as ever. For example, last year, these were the average points per game scored by wide receivers who played at least 8 games, starting with the top 12 (WR1), then 13-24 (WR2), 25-36 (WR3), and so on:

There is a drop-off in points for every step-down, as we would expect. But the average WR3 scored 12.6 PPR points per game, which would rank as the RB23 in points per game. The average WR4 scored more points per game than the RB31.

Ok, ok, so why am I telling you this? “I thought this was about running backs?” It is, and here’s why. If receivers are scoring more than ever, and running backs slip in your draft, why not set yourself apart by drafting two stud RBs in the first three rounds of your draft? You can start RB-RB-WR, or go RB-WR/TE-RB.

It’s all about who falls to you. If your league mates favor the wideouts, put together an outstanding running back room, knowing you can grab receivers by the dozen to make up for a lack of top-tier talent. We’ll demonstrate that more in a second.

For a visual, here are the average points per game scored for RB1’s, 2’s, and so on in 2022:

RB-Heavy works because top-tier running backs are incredibly valuable compared to the rest of their position. The drop in PPG from RB1 to RB2 is 23.3%. From WR1 to WR2 it’s 22.8%. From RB2 to RB3, the drop is a drastic 18.2%. From WR2 to WR3, that drop is only 12.7%. That trend of 18-19% and 12% respectively continue on down the line.

Knowing that WR scoring remains relatively stable and the drop-off is not as stark as running back is handy information. If you grab several workhorse backs early, you will keep your cool knowing usable receivers will still be on the board in rounds three and four.

One quick aside, more than likely, I’m not drafting a running back with all of my first three picks. Even an RB Heavy style of draft can’t deny the necessity of a top-end wideout.

Past the first four-ish rounds, you can concentrate more on WR since you have your top RBs locked up. Don’t forget running back entirely, though. I still like having at least four running backs on my roster by the end of a standard 15-round draft (this is assuming kicker and DST are also in play).

Cool Cool, What’s the TL:DR?

RB Heavy in a nutshell is knowing top-tier RBs present an advantage over the rest of the position and that you can grab receivers later on. Target running backs early on in your drafts by grabbing preferably two in the first three rounds.

Afterward, concentrate on wide receiver and attack the onesie positions: QB and TE in the middle rounds. I did a mock from the eighth spot and got Bijan, Tony Pollard, and Keenan Allen with my first three picks. Trevor Lawrence in the 6th, and Dalton Schultz in the 9th. James Cook was my RB3 in the 7th. I took upside shots at WR with Skyy Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Watson. I really like this team.

RB-Heavy is under a lot of pressure this year thanks to all the holdouts and controversy going on, but in the end, it’s still a solid way to build a championship team.

News and Notes

• We’ve got preseason action! Jordan Love looked good in his debut. Sam Howell was a little shaky to start but completed 9 of 12 passes for 77 yards and a score against Cleveland. CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson faced some expected rookie lumps.

• Calvin Austin III made his debut in a Steelers uniform and impressed. He totaled 96 total yards and a score on a mere four touches.

• WR Austin Watkins of the Cleveland Browns has shown out this preseason. Homer bias here, but I don’t mind him as a dynasty stash. Amari Cooper and DPJ may leave after this year, and Watkins could find himself as the Browns' WR3 in 2024 if he keeps this up.

• Baker Mayfield looked…good? Call me shocked.

• Tajae Spears, De’Von Achane, and Tank Bigsby looked good in their limited playing time.

• Where the heck did Adian O’Connell come from? Give that man a starting job!

• And we have some big free-agent news! Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook have signed deals in the AFC East, with the Patriots and Jets respectively. Zeke will get some rushing work and spell Rhamondre Stevenson, but he will be an RB3 at best at this stage of his career. Cook is more interesting with Breece Hall coming back from injury. I feel it’s very much a 1A/1B situation.

Rankings!

With this link, you can view my Fantasy Football PPR rankings and tiers! I’m super excited to share this with you all, have a look!

That will do it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter. Be on the lookout for another email later this week!