Combine Winners and Losers

Hello again!

This will be a shorter newsletter than usual. No heavy-hitting analysis just some general thoughts I had on the combine. But before we dive in, let’s recap some news and notes from the past week.

News and Notes

• Mike Evans has signed a two-year, $52 million deal to stay in Tampa Bay. He’ll operate as the Bucs WR1 once again and provide another incentive for Baker Mayfield to return to Tampa after a successful first year.

• Dalton Schultz is returning to Houston on a three-year deal. It’s a great move for his fantasy value and gives C.J. Stroud yet another weapon.

• Michael Pittman was franchise-tagged by the Colts. It sounds like they are placing him there while they work out a long-term deal.

• The Broncos will release Russell Wilson when the new league year starts.

NFL Combine Winners

• 🐄 Where else could I start than Xavier Worthy? The kid ran a record 4.21 40-yard dash, setting the NFL world on fire. A lot of guys on Twitter have voiced their disdain for Worthy after running fast, citing that fast receivers usually don’t work out well in the NFL. JJ Zachariason mentioned on his Late Round podcast that while it’s true receivers that fast generally aren’t good fantasy bets, most, if not all of them, didn’t have as good of a production profile as Worthy. We’ve seen Worthy produce in other areas, so I would caution fading him on the basis of a sprint time. Plus, he just increased his draft stock doing this.

• Isaac Guerendo is yet another guy who’s a winner from the combine. The kid led the running back class in speed score with a crazy mark of 125.7. It probably doesn’t boost his draft stock a ton, but it does help for sure. He just needs to fall into the right system, or at least a run-friendly one that would like his skillset. Minnesota, Baltimore (yes even with Keaton Mitchell there), or even Philly could suit him. He has the size needed to run between the tackles and now he tested with some breakaway speed.

• 🏹 Trey Benson may not have the strongest production profile in my model, but he rose from being a not-so-strong guy on my board to creeping up into my top RB spots with his performance. He showed speed and explosiveness in his 1.52 10-yard split, tied for second-best in the class. I still favor some other guys more, but Benson is now squarely on my radar in ways he hadn’t been.

• 🐄 Adonai Mitchell and 🐅 Brian Thomas Jr. put up some great dash scores and likely saw their draft capital rise. I wasn’t interested in either if I’m being honest, but Mitchell interests me a little more now. He had one of the second-worst seasons among prospects in yards per team pass attempt at 1.78, and prospects with that low of a YPTPA and a later breakout age generally aren’t great bets for fantasy. But, 4.3 speed at that size is not something to be ignored. Brian Thomas running a 4.33 at 209 lbs is no small feat either, showcasing his deep-threat ability.

NFL Combine Losers

There weren’t a lot of losers in this combine, and among receivers, it was hard to find one. However, here are a couple of potentially fantasy-relevant running backs that have taken a hit based on their performance.

• He’s not exactly a loser, but Keon Coleman having the second-slowest 40-time isn’t the greatest thing. His weight-adjusted score still looks ok, but his route running needs work, hence why I was hoping he could counter that with sheer size and speed while he improves his routes. He’s still projected for decent draft capital, so we’ll see what the NFL thinks of him now.

• 🦆 Bucky Irving weighing in at just 192 pounds and having a speed score of 89.6 is not great. The talent is still there, but usually, you are hoping for some

• 🍀 Audric Estime is another who saw his draft stock fall thanks to a bad 40 time as well. The rushing ability is there, but he’s probably limited to a two-down role with that size.

Final Thoughts

There are definitely more guys we could talk about, but I just wanted to hit some highlights. That will do it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter, I’ll see you next Tuesday!

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