Caleb Williams Struggles in Debut

What a week of games right? Cincinnati losing to New England was not something I saw coming. But most everything else? Yeah I don’t think it was too unexpected. The Saints destroyed the Panthers, the Buccaneers defeated the Commanders, and the Vikings killed the Giants, yeah.

On Sunday, the teams passed for an average of 185 passing yards. Caleb Williams, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and Bryce Young all dealt with accuracy issues (among other things). Including Monday night football, which has just finished at the time of writing, over half of the starting NFL quarterbacks threw for less than 200 passing yards in Week 1.

On Monday night, the Jets were dominated by the 49ers and their superstar running back Jordan Mason. I kid, but Mason is a worthy stash, especially if CMC misses more time. Deebo Samuel also filled in the void rushing as well but was not his usual efficient self.

It took Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall a minute to get going but they were hot on the Jets first scoring drive. After that? Eh not so much. If your name wasn’t Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, or Allen Lazard, you didn’t have a good game for the Jets. If you have the space on your roster, you might want to consider picking Lazard up, he and Rodgers have that Green Bay connection going on.

With that out of the way, let’s move on to Sunday’s games. I’ll list off some of my observations and takeaways and then we’ll take a look at the Week 2 waiver wire.

News and Notes

• 🐻 Since the year 2000, among rookie quarterbacks who won their NFL debut, only Andy Dalton had fewer passing yards than Caleb Williams. And Dalton only played half of his debut game. There’s no denying the Bears were bailed out by their defense against the Titans with two D/ST touchdowns, but it still counts as a win regardless. 93 yards and 48% completion isn’t going to cut it in the NFL, but it’s a debut game. Also interesting is this stat:

• 🐻 One more note on the Bears. D’Andre Swift managed 30 yards on 10 carries. 20 of those came on one run. So his other nine attempts went for 10 yards. What’s crazier is two of those went for 12 yards. Meaning his other seven netted a total of -2 yards. I get this sounds like a “if you take away all his good plays, he sucks” type of analysis, but three yards per carry is still not good, especially if he doesn’t have receiving work to go along with it.

• 🔴 Marvin Harrison Jr. did ummm, not have the debut we expected. If it had been four receptions for 50 yards, that still wouldn’t have been great but it’s still a first game. No, it was three targets, one catch, four yards. That’s it. He was wide open for a score on the Cardinals' final drive and Kyler simply didn’t see him. There’s hope, and don’t overreact to just one game.

• 🔥 I called out Calvin Ridley as a caution/sit candidate for Week 1 and feel fairly justified. The 7-3-50 line wasn’t a bad one, but it may not have been quite what managers hoped for. On a different note, Tony Pollard out-touched Tyjae Spears 19 to 8 and out-gained him 94 to 32 while also scoring a touchdown.

• 🔷 Malik Nabers had seven targets, which doesn’t sound too bad until you realize it equates to just a 16.7% target share. Wan’Dale Robinson had a whopping 12 targets, aka 28.5% target rate.

• 🏇 Anthony Richardson completed just 9 of 19 passes for 212 yards. Two of them went for touchdowns. Those two were passes of 60 and 54 yards. In other words, 54% of his passing yards came on two plays. On another note, he ran for 56 yards and a score, which is pretty much why you drafted him: getting RB2 numbers from a guy who also passes the ball. Fun fact, since 2014, only two players have had more passing yards than Richardson on 10 or fewer completions: Kyle Orton and Brian Hoyer.

• ⚡️ Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in his first game with the team and also put on some nice moves on his touchdown score. Quentin Johnston caught three passes for 38 yards, but I’ll admit I’m still not quite convinced he’s “back”. I’ll lean on Ladd for now. 🔵 

• ⚡️ Also, is a J.K. Dobbins revenge tour on tap? The man went nuts: 10 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown. He added three receptions for only four yards but it’s still encouraging to see passing game usage. 🟡 

• ☠️ Jakobi Meyers may have led the Raiders in receiving yards, but Brock Bowers led the team in targets and receptions with 8 and 6 respectively. Zahmir White accumulated a grand total of 46 yards on 15 touches and was outgained by Alexander Mattison. I saw the jokes during the preseason that White is this year’s Mattison. How fitting it would be if he was this year’s Mattison and replaced by Mattison himself. But, it’s week 1. Don’t go crazy just yet.

If you want to see even more of my takeaways from Week 1, check out my Observation Overload thread on X.

Waiver Targets

• QB: Baker Mayfield @ DET, Geno Smith @ NE, Will Levis vs NYJ

• RB: J.K. Dobbins @ CAR, Alexander Mattison @ BAL, Justice Hill vs LV. Stashes: Jordan Mason, Jaylen Wright, Tank Bigsby, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis

• WR: Brandin Cooks vs NO, Tyler Johnson @ ARI, Wan’Dale Robinson @ WAS, Josh Reynolds vs PIT, Allen Lazard @ TEN

• TE: ISAIAH LIKELY vs LV, Colby Parkinson @ ARI

• DST: Chargers @ CAR, Colts @ GB, Giants @ WAS

For quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield goes from facing a cupcake Washington secondary to a much more difficult Detroit, but he has good weapons to help him out. I’m going to assume New England had first-week luck and that Geno Smith and the Seahawks put them back in their place.

J.K. Dobbins is rostered in many leagues, but if he is out there, I’m willing to blow the FAAB budget for him. He’s lost his long-run speed but that might improve as the season goes along. On a human side, it’s nice to see him get another shot and actually look good doing it.

Justice Hill is a great half and full-PPR add. The Ravens seem to like using him in third down and passing situations, and if they plan on involving the running backs more on passing downs, sign me up. ✅ Alexander Mattison is the gross add here, but he’s a poor man Justice Hill in this case. I don’t think he has great upside, but I’ll take the guy who is catching passes with the chance for rushing work over the man who is inefficient in his rushing opportunities (aka Zamir White).

Jake Ferguson’s injury should open things up for Brandin Cooks, who had a nice touchdown catch against Cleveland. Tyler Johnson averaged 2.47 yards per route run against Detroit and could be an interesting add with Puka Nacua out. Wan’Dale Robinson led the Giants in targets and now he gets to go against the Washington Commanders secondary that just gave up four touchdowns to the Buccaneers. Josh Reynolds isn’t a priority add, but in deeper leagues, you could do worse. 🤷‍♂️ I expect Courtland Sutton, Greg Dulcich, and the running backs to stay involved, but Reynolds is a solid option if you need a floor play.

He’s probably available, but another guy I’m willing to FAAB dump for is Isaiah Likely. Especially if I have David Njoku and Jake Ferguson at TE. The only other tight end I’m really interested in is Colby Parkinson. He had caught four of five targets for forty-seven yards in the Rams’ game against Detroit. Not a large target share but not insignificant usage.

That will do it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter! Thanks for stopping by, thanks for reading, and I’ll see you on Friday!