Best Ball Targets, Values, and Fades

I had this planned for a while, but debated on whether or not to actually write it because best ball values change so often.

However, there are degenerates like myself that draft in June, and we want best ball content NOW!

So with that, it’s important to note some players stay more or less a value or fade throughout the offseason, it just depends on team opportunity and public perception. Others will see their ADP rise or drop significantly. What if there’s a preseason injury to Jalen Hurts? The Eagles pass catchers will see their value plummet. What if Najee Harris sustains a training camp injury that will keep him sidelined for a while? Jaylen Warren will see his price skyrocket.

Keep that in mind when I share these players. See what the market thinks and react accordingly.

Targets I am deeming as guys within the top 4-5 rounds that I am actively trying to get on my team. Values are guys further down the order, anywhere after round 5 essentially, that I think could have a higher ceiling than ADP implies. Fades are players I am generally out on at cost, no matter the round. I will be using Underdog’s ADP, which you can access on their app.

Best Ball Targets, Values, and Fades

🎯 Targets 🎯 

RB: Breece Hall, De’Von Achane, Isiah Pacheco,

WR: Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, Tank Dell, Christian Kirk, Amari Cooper

I didn’t include QB and TE in this group because there simply aren’t enough guys drafted in the first 4-5 rounds to warrant discussion. Do I need to say Josh Allen is a great pick or Travis Kelce is much cheaper than in years past so you should snag him? Probably not. If I do, well, refer to what I said above. They are good.

That might beg you to ask: “if you’re not going to talk about obvious picks, why mention Breece Hall?” Simple. He’s going in the first round, which is dominated by wide receivers. Eight WRs have an overall ADP of 11 or less. Marvin Harrison Jr is 13.7. With the start of a draft so dominated by wideouts, it may be tempting to hop on the bandwagon. What I’m suggesting is that you shore up your running back position with Hall, by doing so you’re going against the grain, and grabbing top-end WRs in RD2-3. 🛫 

Chris Olave was 12th among WRs in targets last season with 138. He also suffered some bizarre games like Weeks 4-5 where he caught 3 of 11 targets for 16 yards and a touchdown. It didn’t work out for him last year, but the talent is there. He now has more experience with Derek Carr, and we could see the Saints improve in offensive efficiency after ranking in the bottom half of the league last year in yards per play.

💰️ Values 💰️ 

QB: Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson

RB: Jonathon Brooks, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, Brian Robinson Jr, Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Allgeier

WR: DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Downs, the trio of Ja’Lynn Polk, Demario Douglas, and JuJu Smith-Schuster

TE: Dalton Schultz, Luke Musgrave, Tyler Conklin, Tucker Kraft, Theo Johnson

The Justin Herbert disrespect has gone too far. He’s being drafted as the QB17. That’s where he finished last year despite playing only 13 games. He’s better than his ADP implies. Yes, this offense will be more run-heavy. Potentially very run-heavy. However, Greg Roman and HC Jim Harbaugh don’t have the same personnel as the Baltimore Ravens, though they tried their hardest to do so. Herbert is a capable runner, but he’s not Lamar Jackson. I trust the coaches to be smart enough to let Herbert throw when needed and not run the ball 70% of the time like the public seems to think will happen.

Jonathon Brooks seems to be the biggest value in drafts right now. He’s at RB24 right now and has said he thinks he’ll be back by training camp. Of course, player speculation is different than official medical staff updates and statements, but it’s a bode of confidence nonetheless. Should news come out that he will in fact get back by training camp and up to speed by the season’s start, he will shoot up draft boards.

Raheem Mostert just got done scoring a bunch of touchdowns last season and had an incredibly efficient year. Many people are concerned with his age, but he doesn’t have as much wear and tear as other running backs his age. Zach Charbonnet and Tyler Allgeier are one injury away from potential workhorse workloads and have some standalone value (Allgeier 2 TD Week 1 anyone?).

Rashid Shaheed is a great deep threat to target in the later rounds who can win you a week and should operate as the No.3, potentially No.2 target (depending on how much Alvin Kamara is targeted), for Derek Carr. Jakobi Meyers and Josh Downs aren’t the most spicy, but they provide a nice baseline for your fantasy team and Meyers comes with touchdown upside.

Darren Waller may retire, which would boost Theo Johnson’s draft stock up, though it’s hard to tell how much given the state of their offense. This could be a blessing, if his cost remains low, he stays a value. Malik Nabers is the unquestioned top target for Daniel Jones but past him, is it Darius Slayton? Isaiah Hodgins? Daniel Bellinger? Devin Singletary? It’s wide open for the athletic rookie tight end.

🛑 Fades 🛑 

QB: Caleb Williams, Will Levis

RB: Josh Jacobs, Javonte Williams

WR: Stefon Diggs, the duo of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, Jameson Williams

TE: T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet

I usually am not the type of person to “fade” anyone. Basically, it’s not a full fade for me on any of these players besides Hockenson. I have exposure to nearly all of these players, but I will have low exposure to them in best ball relative to the amount of teams I draft. Say, if my average exposure to a certain player is 20% (which is actually fairly high), then these guys might range 5-10% or so.

Hockenson won’t help my team until near the end of the year and when he comes back, he’s coming back to a rookie QB he hasn’t built a rapport with. So it’s a burnt roster spot.

Jacobs could find himself in a split backfield. Javonte Williams has increased competition in the backfield and may not be the guy for Sean Peyton. It’s not so much that Audric Estime is a problem, but he isn’t a clear workhorse over Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, and now Estime.

Caleb Williams is being drafted as the QB11. He could certainly get there by season’s end. I don’t doubt that. He has some rushing ability, but he lacks the potential game-breaking ability that Jayden Daniels has. With that, DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are guys I feel will struggle to return on value. Again, it’s not doubting Williams and declaring him a bust, it’s the fact that rookie QB’s often struggle to sustain high-end fantasy receivers.

Williams’ situation is a bit different than most, with three top options to throw to at receiver plus capable running backs and tight ends as safety valves. The plethora of options has me wondering if all can return value where they are currently drafted. Allen at WR32 seems reasonable, as does Rome Odunze at WR37. Moore is all the way up at WR19, and I feel he has the “most to lose”.

This situation is very intriguing and one I’m looking forward to watching play out this season. Do rookie QBs not produce good WRs because they usually don’t have good ones? Or can they, they just have to have the right system? We could be in for another example of a Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud type of season where good talent around a good QB, even a rookie QB, means good things.

I get the Titans upgraded their offense, and I do have exposure to Levis because he is cheap, but I wasn’t wowed by his rookie season. His passing numbers were mediocre, and he can throw it deep (highest intended air yards per attempt last season). However, he has little rushing upside and his accuracy was sub-par, put nicely. Being completely transparent with you, he could be someone I change my mind over as the season approaches, but for now, he’s one I struggle with.

That’s all I have for now! Thanks for reading and I will see you next week! If you haven’t seen it already, I’m now on TikTok so go check it out!