2024 TE Preview Special

What’s up, everyone? Hope you’ve enjoyed my series this month going over my quarterback, running back, and wide receiver previews because we now move on to fantasy football’s most important position: tight ends!

I kid. Depending on the league you are in, it’s highly unlikely tight ends are the most important position in your league, however, 2TE leagues do exist and in those leagues, they are extremely important. And that’s a fact.

But for the majority of leagues, tight ends are usually an afterthought. I’m sure people out there have drafted a DST or a kicker before grabbing a tight end. Which I would not recommend doing. So while they may not be the most important, I believe they are certainly the most mysterious. ❓️❓️ 

I go over my top-12 list just as I have been, and then offer my thoughts on the rest of the position. For the sake of not having to mention it 24 times, I’m using half-PPR scoring throughout this newsletter. Stats and ADP have been pulled from FantasyPros and PlayerProfiler.

2024 Top-12 Tight Ends

1. 🏹 Travis Kelce: Kelce suffered a bit of a down year in 2023 and was still tied with Sam LaPorta for the most PPG by a tight end. Kansas City may preserve him for the postseason, so we could see Kelce struggle again and cede his throne. Let’s not forget that the Chiefs were very average in offensive scoring last season. Do we think they are truly an average offense? Yeah me neither. I think we’re seeing a bounce back this year.

2. 🟣 Mark Andrews: He suffered injuries last year, but he was the TE4 in PPG last season. An absolute chasm of 0.2 PPG separating him and LaPorta/Kelce for the TE1 spot. He was the overall TE3 during Weeks 2-10 when he was a full-time player. He’s healthy this year, Zay Flowers should draw a little more attention from the secondary, and defenses also have to worry about Derrick Henry. I think Andrews is in prime bounce-back territory.

3. 🦁 Sam LaPorta: He was the revelation for late-round tight-end drafters last season. Some are hyped about Jameson Williams this year, but I think LaPorta stays in his No.2 target role in the offense. He’s too good not to be. He’s coming off of a 120-target rookie season where he led all tight ends in touchdowns, 6th in YPRR, and 6th in QB rating when targeted.

4. 🔴 Trey McBride: Zach Ertz started off the season as the starter, but injuries forced Arizona to utilize McBride more, and he took off. McBride was the TE4 after Week 8 in 2023, and figures to be the de facto No.2 target behind Marvin Harrison Jr.

5. 🐆 Evan Engram: If you haven’t figured it out by now, I like going for guys who I think will be at least the No.2 target in their offense. I think that will be the case for Engram in 2024. Christian Kirk profiles to lead the team in targets in 2024, but the more I see from Brian Thomas Jr, the more I think he gives him a run for his money. Regardless, Engram has been a top-6 tight end in his two years in Jacksonville.

6. ⚒️ George Kittle: Kittle breaks the trend of No.2 targets, but his pure athletic game-breaking ability combined with the offense he’s in sets him apart. To be fair, he was the second target in San Fransisco last season, if only by a single target. Deebo Samuel was third on the team with 89 to Kittle’s 90, and Christian McCaffrey had 83 targets of his own. This could drastically change if Brandon Aiyuk is traded, but for now, I’m assuming he will be the third target.

   Still, despite his boom/bust style of play, Kittle led all tight ends with 2.3 YPPR as well as placing first in yards per target and yards per reception. You can’t deny his explosiveness, just make sure you build your team in such a way that you can ride out the bad games.

7. 🦬 Dalton Kincaid: There are some lofty expectations set on the Bills' second-year tight end. The general expectation is that Kincaid will take over the mantle as Josh Allen’s top target. Keon Coleman isn’t ready, and Khalil Shakir doesn’t fit the mold for “No.1 target” status. Even so, I have worries. Even though Stefon Diggs faded at the end of 2023, Dawson Knox’s return seemed to impact Kincaid’s fantasy performance, even if Knox didn’t do so hot himself. Could he be more of a factor than we give him credit for?

8. 🔴 Kyle Pitts: Here we go again with Kyle Pitts. If there ever was a chance he would revive his career, I think it’s now or never. Kirk Cousins would need to be close to what he was at the beginning of 2023 for that to happen, which is no guarantee. However, the last time we saw a semblance of Pitts’ ceiling was with Matt Ryan. Cousins is as close as he’s gotten to another Matt Ryan. I’ll go into more detail about Pitts below. 🧐 🧐 

9. 🤠 Jake Ferguson: The Cowboy’s tight end led all tight ends in Red Zone targets last season (24 targets) and figures to reprise his role as a weapon at the goal line. At the rate tight ends scored in the Red Zone last year, based on his usage he should have scored 6.5 TD. With an aging Ezekiel Elliott and unknown in Rico Dowdle, the Cowboys figure to once again be among the league lead in passing attempts. Ferguson should be one of the primary beneficiaries.

10. 🟠 David Njoku: Njoku is such a curious case of “maybe/what if/if only”. We know he has the ability to be one of the best tight ends in fantasy if he is fed targets. But with Deshaun Watson’s eternally unsure status, we will never know if we can start Njoku. He wasn’t particularly good with Watson at the helm, but was that mainly due to Watson getting his feet under him or that he just doesn’t pass to the tight ends? Hopefully, we’ll find out in 2024.

11. ☠️ Brock Bowers: Bowers is much like Njoku, just younger. We’ve seen his college tape. We know he has game-changing ability. But does that matter now that he is on the Raiders? He’s going to be behind Davante Adams in the pecking order, and Jakobi Meyers is no slouch. Gardner Minshew has been named the starter, but does that really make much of a difference over Aiden O’Connell? I doubt it, but I’m all for the mustachioed wonder to work his magic. For now, I’m trusting the talent of Bowers to win out.

12. 🐄 Dalton Schultz: In 2023, Schultz had nearly as many weeks as finishing as a TE3 or worse as he did inside the top-12 (6 vs. 7). He’s in an offense that is looking to be good in 2024, with CJ Stroud hopefully taking the next step in his development. The problem is the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs.

    Even if Diggs isn’t who he used to be, he’s still going to push Schultz for the title of at least the No.3 target in the offense, possibly pushing Shultz down to fourth in the pecking order. I think Schultz is a fine tight end and will still get Red Zone usage, but TE12 feels about right given a potentially capped ceiling.

Tight End Sleepers

Alright so I teased this above because I didn’t want to distract from the Top-12 list by writing an extended bullet point, but I think Cousins is going to be a good thing for Kyle Pitts. In each of the past three seasons, he was top-10 in deep ball passing completion percentage.

Why is this important? Pitts had the highest ADOT among tight ends in 2023. If the new coaching staff really does want to utilize Pitts and get him downfield as well, we could be seeing some big things from him this season.

🎖️ Another sleeper I like in the wake of the Jahan Dotson trade is Ben Sinnott. The rookie out of Kansas State broke out in 2023 leading the Wildcats in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He’s played well in the preseason so far for Washington and could overtake the aging Zach Ertz as the starting tight end at some point this year. With Dotson gone and a lack of true receiving talent on the roster behind Terry McLaurin, who’s to say Sinnott can’t become the No.2 target in the offense?

As I do every week, I’ll list off a few more guys I like rapid-fire style: Taysom Hill, Tyler Conklin, and Theo Johnson. 🧑‍🚒🔥 

Tight End Busts

🐻 When I list the top-12 tight ends, basically everyone after that is a “well, hope and pray!” So it’s really hard to label someone a bust. But since this is about rankings, sleepers, and busts, I’ll go with Cole Kmet here. I brought down the hate last week on the Bears by calling DJ Moore a bust. It’s not even that I think Chicago will fail. I think they will be fine. The problem I have with Kmet is much of the same problem I had with Moore, target competition.

Last year Kmet was second on the team in targets with 90. Now he’s competing not only with Moore, but Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. The Bears offense is quite honestly stacked. I just don’t have the confidence Caleb Williams can support all of them in his rookie year. Maybe he can make two or even three of the four highly relevant next season. But this year❓️ I’ll fade Kmet. I currently have him at TE20, despite his ADP of TE16. I get that in tight end realm, four spots aren’t a lot at that point, but again, once you get past the first six or so, they’re all basically the same dude.

Thanks for sticking with me and reading more about tight ends than you probably wanted to today. I had fun writing it, and tried to mix in a few more stats this time around than I had in previous positional previews. Don’t want to give you guys just straight-up opinion all the time right? Gotta back it up with the numbers at some point!

One more thing before I go that brightened my day yesterday:

I hope JuJu signs with KC and revives his career, at least a little. Is it too much to ask?