2024 Rookie Preview Pt.1

What’s happening, guys? It’s quiet on the free-agent side of the NFL, though there are still names out there who have yet to find a team (Hunter Renfrow for one, I’m kind of surprised no one has signed him yet). But draft season is heating up!

There are mock-drafts galore and prospect debates abound. By the time the actual draft arrives, we’ll be so sick of talking about it that we’ll forget to actually enjoy it. Just kidding, we’ll still enjoy it. I will anyway.

Everyone in fantasy football has something they are good at, and something they are not strong in. For me, I’m good at redraft leagues and dynasty formats. Prospecting incoming rookies is still a new thing for me, though I am refining that process even as you read this. I’m more of a numbers instead of a film guy, not because I think one is inherently better, but because it’s the area I’m most comfortable. I’m working to improve film evaluation, but it’s a work in progress.

With all that said and out of the way, here are some of my thoughts on the upcoming class of quarterbacks and running backs.

2024 Rookie QB Preview

Nothing I say here hasn’t already been said by someone much smarter than me. There are guys out there who have spent hours upon hours looking at film and diving into how each one of these quarterbacks can be the next big thing. I’m only going to give you general thoughts because that’s the limit of my knowledge, quite frankly.

Caleb Williams is likely walking into the ready-made Bears team that has revamped everything in their offense. They have given him weapons galore and it will be a no-excuses type of deal for Williams should he go there. Given the team situation, he’s almost certainly the rookie QB1 for fantasy in 2024.

Drake Maye is the presumptive second quarterback off the board, though Jayden Daniels has a case to be made. Maye to me feels more like the Justin Herbert arc while Daniels is more like Lamar Jackson. Both have a high ceiling but there are questions to be had. Maye suffers accuracy issues while Daniels absorbs big hits like his body is somehow impervious to injury (hint, it’s not).

JJ McCarthy is being talked up by a lot of people as the potential QB2 (sometimes QB1!) of the class, notably by his former head coach, Jim Harbaugh. JJ has some rushing ability, and the arm talent is there. He’s a little less polished than some of the guys in this class, but the potential is there. He’s a solid QB to take in the back of the first in super-flex depending on his landing spot.

2024 Rookie RB Preview

Running back is not something that is super fun to discuss this offseason. There really isn’t a name that stands out above the rest, like Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson or Jonathan Taylor. How these backs will do in fantasy will heavily depend on their landing spot and draft capital. Two big opportunities are out there on the Cowboys and Chargers, who seem poised to draft running backs. Braelon Allen, Ray Davis, or Trey Benson might be interesting there.

Braelon Allen put up a ton of production at an incredibly young age but didn’t follow it up in any meaningful way. His production stayed mostly stagnant and while he’s big, he doesn’t quite have the “breaking tackles” skill down just yet.

Ray Davis took a while to get going and was hampered by a season-ending toe injury back in 2021 while at Vanderbilt. If you haven’t read his story, it’s one of the more inspiring ones of the draft, but his work ethic and heart is undeniable. He doesn’t have the best top-end speed but he does a lot of things right and can catch passes, which is what you’re looking for for fantasy football.

Blake Corum is the obvious choice to find his name called by the Chargers after Jim Harbaugh came to be their head coach. If not Corum, Jonathon Brooks would be an interesting name to go there. They can afford to let him rest up and recover behind Gus Edwards, who I do think is more of a stop-gap than a long-term bellcow back.

Right now I think should he have been healthy entering the draft, Brooks would be my RB1. But, given his injury, I have Corum at the top though I do like Ray Davis a lot despite his age. Don’t sleep on Benson, the guy is good and even though his production metrics weren’t the strongest, I couldn’t see many obvious holes in his game. Some people I really respect like him a lot as well and think he’s the rookie RB1.

Everyone will talk about Isaac Guerendo’s insane speed score of 125.7. He’s going to get a lot of Pacheco comps, but it’s worth noting he needs to find the right system for his skillset, almost the right system to a T.

I’m currently trying to build a running back model for projecting which incoming rookies will have the most fantasy success, and right now in the prototype stage, before adjusting to conference for Dylan Laube (which is FCS) had the second-highest production profile score of the 2024 running back class among guys I’ve profiled (behind Ray Davis). Laube could be an interesting name for a team like the Vikings or Cincinnati, who have some aging veterans leading the backfield but not much behind them. Heck, if he went to Dallas he’s the starter! Doubt that happens though.

One last note: Frank Gore Jr. is in this class. Correct, the son of the legend Frank Gore. His numbers in college are ridiculous, even if it was at a smaller school. One has to wonder if he can put it together against the toughest competition he’ll ever face, but I mean, RB1 by name value am I right?

Final Thoughts

In the same vein, I hope to release a rookie wide receiver guide sometime in the next week, before my next newsletter comes out. Some details still need to be hashed out, but while my running back prospect model is in building mode, I have a functional model for wide receivers called the S240!

In the guide, I will be detailing how exactly the model works and will cover some of the wide receiver prospects coming in with some thoughts and comps for each one. Can’t wait to share it with you! See you later!