2024 Quarterback Sleepers

Hello everyone! Once again, I wrote this newsletter ahead of time in preparation for a busy month, so forgive me if I am a little behind or even omitting news items that have come out. Other than injuries, it’s important to know that everyone is having a great training camp/preseason unless they aren’t. Pay attention to those who aren’t, as sometimes they can have more signal than others.

Not all the time though, notably Ja’Marr Chase with his “drops” scaring people off before taking the NFL by storm. But sometimes, especially when health is concerned, like with Joe Burrow last year, it’s important to take note. Players holding out and missing the majority of the preseason can have a negative start too, like Josh Jacobs in 2023.

Player Highlight

Will Levis, TEN 🛢️🔥 

Will Levis was quite a divisive prospect coming into the NFL last year. Some believed he had the potential to go No.1 overall to Carolina. Others saw him merely as a back-end Round 1 QB. I doubt most people saw him falling to the second round to Tennessee.

Given how Tennessee was beginning their “changing of the guard”, it shouldn’t have been too surprising that they took him when he fell into their lap. Ryan Tannehill was on the downhill side of his career, and Malik Willis was looking like a bust despite having his own predraft hype in 2022.

The Titans made the switch to Levis in week 8 of 2023, and in the eight games he played the majority of the snaps, they went 3-5. Three of those losses were within four points, so they were close to winning additional games with him and potentially turning some more heads.

Half of his touchdowns came in his first start, setting unrealistic expectations for the rookie among fantasy players. Throwing only four touchdowns in his next seven games was a bit of a letdown regardless. However, he kept his interception rate at a very respectable 1.6%, on par with guys like Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert. ⚡️ 

Reasons for Optimism

On the bright side, his 3.1% touchdown rate has some room for improvement. With the additions of Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and Tyler Boyd to the offense to go along with DeAndre Hopkins (and the hope of Treylon Burks) the Titans set up their new QB for success. The main question is, can he capitalize❓️ 

His new coach, Brian Callahan, has orchestrated a pass-heavy offense in Cincinnati over the last few years. In his five years as their OC, Cincy ranked 7th, 7th, 20th, 14th, and 6th in total pass attempts. In 2020, Joe Burrow’s rookie year, they were on pace to be 2nd in the league in total pass attempts before Burrow suffered a season-ending injury before ending up 14th. In 2021, they leaned heavily on the run as Burrow worked his way back from injury (since then, they’ve been bottom 5 in rushing attempts per season). 📈 

In contrast, the Titans under Mike Vrabel saw the second-fewest passing attempts in the NFL last season. Even with Tennessee seeing an uptick in passing with Levis at the helm compared to Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis, they still would have ranked 26th in the league in pass attempts per game. It’s no secret the Titans simply didn’t pass the ball often, and quite frankly they didn’t have the personnel to do so.

If you assume Levis only takes a minor step forward in TD% and pass yds/game and attempts 35 passes a game (which would be just above league average in 2023), he will end up with around 4100 yards and 24 touchdowns. That would have put him top-10 in yardage and top-12 in touchdowns among quarterbacks last season. Even in an injury-riddled year for quarterbacks, that’s not a bad place to be.

The great thing is that’s if you assume only minor improvements. And remember what I said about the Titans not being built to pass? As currently constructed, Tennessee is not built to run the ball. Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard in the backfield profile as pass-catchers and aren’t built like typical bell-cow backs. The additions of Pollard and Ridley in the passing game give Levis the weapons he needs to take the next step in his development. I think Levis offers a great shot at upside in 2024 given his potential to improve this season on a reworked roster. He’s one of my favorite late-round targets because of it and guess what? If he doesn’t pan out, it costs you next to nothing. 😃 

More QB Sleepers

• 🟠 Deshaun Watson: Watson gets a bad rap, and quite honestly due to his health and legal issues over the last few years, it’s deserved. However, when he’s been healthy, he’s been productive. He had three top-10 finishes last year and four as a QB2 in five healthy games. The Browns added to their pass-catching corps this offseason with the acquisition of Jerry Jeudy and drafted Jamari Thrash out of Louisville. With Nick Chubb still injured and Watson having dealt with health issues, don’t be surprised if the Browns ask him to pass more often in 2024.

• 🔵 Daniel Jones: I am not a huge fan of Jones, I’ll be honest. But he has finished as a QB1 in the past and has rushing upside. He now has a true alpha WR in Malik Nabers to throw to, along with the steady Darius Slayton and the hopeful upsides of Wan’Dale Robinson and Jaylin Hyatt. Saquon Barkley is gone, and that could put the ball into Jones’ hands more often in the red zone as well.

• ⚡️ Justin Herbert: People seem to forget just how good Herbert is. Yes, he dealt with injuries last year, and his top pass catchers are gone. However, he still has a decent group of wideouts around him, as well as capable tight ends. His accuracy metrics and efficiency numbers didn’t drop noticeably, at least anything that is concerning given the circumstances he dealt with, so that’s an encouraging sign. Herbert can run as well. He was on his way to having the best rushing season of his career in 2023 before he sustained an injury. He’s no Lamar Jackson and I believe Greg Roman and HC John Harbaugh know that, but not utilizing Herbert’s rushing ability would be a mistake on their part.

That will do it! Thanks so much for reading and I will see you again soon!