2024 NFL Week 5 Start, Sit, and More!

So I’ve been releasing videos on my TikTok account about what to do with difficult roster decisions. Should you drop, trade, or hold a player? In the two short-form videos I have so far, I’ve labeled Patrick Mahomes, Mark Andrews, and Zamir White a drop, with Tyreek Hill being the lone hold/trade, with a lean towards holding him.

I haven’t made a third video just yet, but another guy I plan on mentioning is Calvin Ridley. Ridley has not been good so far this season aside from one game where he was the WR5 against the Jets of all people. Tennessee has not been good, but I have some reasons for optimism:

1. I think as the season goes along Will Levis will improve in his new offensive system. It’s very possible he won’t but we have to give these guys a chance. He’s had only 13 career starts mind you and this is his second offensive system he’s had to learn.

2. The schedule gets a lot easier for receivers going forward. Their remaining schedule includes Indy twice, Jacksonville twice, Detroit, the Chargers, Houston, Washington, and Cincinnati.

I’m not a big Ridley fan, but it could be a great time to buy low, really low, on the Titans offense. If you get Ridley for cheap and he doesn’t materialize, that’s alright. But if they do pick things up, you could be in for a treat.

For anyone dealing with difficult roster decisions, just look at the context around the team, schedule, personnel, the way the team plays their game, past performance, and when taking in all those factors, make your choice. It might not be easy to drop a player or to hold them, but the right choice can pay off dividends.

@garrettbff

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Things to look out for in Week 5

Quarterbacks

🐆 Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been great this year. But to his credit, he’s at least been attempting to push the ball downfield. To me, if a QB is struggling while trying to throw short or just survive (Bryce Young for example), then that’s not a good sign. However, if a player is at least attempting to push the ball down the field with some semblance of success, then I hold out some hope for some positive regression. Lawrence’s expected Comp% is 61.7%, which is lower than his actual completion rate. He’s dealt with the sixth most drops among QBs, which isn’t helping him. He also has a bad throw percentage that is among the worst among QBs. Hopefully, a matchup against a beatable Indy secondary will do the trick and get him on track.

🟡 After a good first month of the season, Justin Fields faces off against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to QBs this season. Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson have run well against them so far, so why not another AFC North QB? Heck, Derek Carr scored a rushing touchdown against them. Daniel Jones wasn’t big in the rushing department (surprisingly) but I will pass that off as a divisional game. Fields is also fourth best among qualified QBs in completion rate over expected according to Next Gen Stats. I’m starting Fields this week against Dallas.

Running Backs

🇺🇸 This is dependent on Antonio Gibson getting the start or some news about an uptick in work, but I think either way he could be a decent start this week. Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in every game this season, and it sounds like patience is wearing thin for head coach Jerod Mayo. I think Gibson getting additional work is highly likely. He’s seen a slight uptick in snaps the past two weeks compared to the first two weeks of the season, and his workload has increased in that span as well. Miami has allowed the fourth-most points to the running backs this year and New England could find themselves in a positive game script. Not something I thought I’d be writing a few weeks ago.

🐈‍⬛ Chicago has allowed an average of 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game compared to just 0.5 passing touchdowns a game. If you’re going to attack the Chicago defense, it’s on the ground. That benefits Chuba Hubbard who has been great since former Bear Andy Dalton took over for Carolina.

🐦️ Justice Hill has entered every-week flex territory. He’s been buoyed by receiving work, but that’s something we love for running backs. He’s the clear No.2 behind Derrick Henry but that doesn’t mean I’m not ok with starting him against Cincy who has been fairly generous to running backs this season, especially if your team is dealing with bye weeks.

🐬 I feel crazy for suggesting this, but I think De’Von Achane might be a sit this week. Not that you have to, but let me lay out the argument. Achane has been struggling this year, averaging just 3.1 YPC. He’s been the RB36 and RB50 in the two weeks without Tua Tagovailoa. The Miami offensive line isn’t helping him. Opposing defenses haven’t had to respect the pass. New England isn’t a bad matchup for running backs, but neither was Seattle, who Achane struggles against. He’s the worst running back in the NFL in RYOE/ATT at -1.77 according to Next Gen Stats. And that’s while facing a loaded box on less than 10% of his attempts. Can he overcome? He has the ability for sure, but if you have a better option, it might be good to try it.

Wide Receivers

🐄 Stefon Diggs has run 53% of his routes out of the slot this year according to Player Profiler. Buffalo hasn’t been a great matchup for wideouts but they are an above-average matchup for receivers out of the slot. Plus, it’s a revenge game!

🦬 On the flip side, Khalil Shakir is in a good spot as well. They are the eighth-best matchup for wide receivers this year and are an above-average matchup for slot receivers. Guess if you’re a slot receiver in this Texans-Bills game, you’re in luck.

🐏 After being a part-time player up to this point in the year, Jordan Whittington had a 97% snap rate in Week 4 for the Rams. Over the past two weeks, he’s been the Rams’ WR2 behind Tutu Atwell. Derek Brown of FantasyPros noted Whittington is first on the Rams with a 30% TPRR (targets per route run). Aka, when he’s on the field, he’s being utilized. Green Bay has been the seventh-best matchup for receivers this year, and the Rams will likely find themselves in a negative game script. Both Whittington and Atwell look like good starts. Which is wild to say after we were chasing Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson, who were on the field ahead of these two.

🐴 Since returning in Week 3, Josh Downs has had a 25% and 30% target share in those two games. Whether Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson starts, I like him against Jacksonville who have allowed the third most yards and receptions to receivers this year.

🐆 Much like Khalil Shakir and Stefon Diggs above where we start receivers on both sides of the matchup, I’m doing the same with the Jacksonville guys. Christian Kirk has 22 targets in the last two weeks and Brian Thomas Jr. has 18. They have been the clear top dogs in Jacksonville, at least with Evan Engram out. Indianapolis is a top-10 matchup for receivers and this game could have some nice back-and-forth. The last three games in this rivalry have seen a combined 50+ points scored and the O/U as of writing is a healthy 45.5.

Tight Ends

☠️ The ball has to go somewhere in Vegas, and I don’t think it’s going to be the receivers. Sit Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker by the way. But this is the tight ends section, so naturally, I’m going to bring up Brock Bowers. Denver is a middling matchup for tight ends, and with the receivers likely struggling on the outside and the Vegas running game being largely ineffective with Zamir White (potentially better if they switch to Alexander Mattison), Bowers could be in for a large target share. ⚫️ 

🧀 For what it’s worth, especially because the tight-end options we’re given each week have felt like they rarely follow up good performances with another good performance, I think Tucker Kraft could be interesting on Sunday. Forgive the long run-on sentence I just put you through. The Rams have been quite generous to tight ends this season, allowing the sixth-most points per game to the position.

That’s all for this week! Go win some games!

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