2024 NFL Week 3 Start, Sit, and More

As you’ll see later in this column, tight ends have not been anyone’s friend unless you have Brock Bowers. If you took an elite tight end, you’re not happy. If you took a tight end late, you’re still not happy, but I guess you can be happy you didn’t spend the draft capital on an elite tight end.

JJ Zachariason put out an informative thread on X where he detailed why we aren’t seeing the same sort of production we’ve historically seen from tight ends. While you should definitely check it out once you are done reading this column, I will give you the basic summary: tight ends have been involved in target share, but we’re seeing fewer passing touchdowns and tight ends are taking a smaller percentage of the already smaller touchdown pie.

So if you have an elite tight end, stay the course. We saw Mark Andrews bounce back with four catches for 51 yards last week. George Kittle and Trey McBride were in double-digit fantasy points. Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce, and Dalton Kincaid struggled, but Kincaid at least should be fine. Pitts and Kelce have more questions attached to them. Even so, it might be time to try and acquire one of them if you can.

Week 3 Start, Sit, and More

Quarterbacks

🎯 Looking at Bad Throw % on Pro Football Reference, you can find some cool things. For example, Sam Darnold is among the league leaders in on-target percentage, therefore he is among the best in “bad throws”, as in he hasn’t thrown bad passes.

Sam Darnold has a bad throw percentage of 10.4%. Here are some notable names that are among the worst in the NFL in bad throw percentage:

• Bryce Young - 28.3% (currently benched)

• Caleb Williams - 27.9%

• Trevor Lawrence -27.1%

• Anthony Richardson - 25.5%

• Bo Nix - 23.7%

Something I found pleasantly surprising is Jayden Daniels is actually 3rd best in on-target percentage. 🎯 

🏹 In some ways, I feel weird talking about Patrick Mahomes. Obviously, you are starting him, but as a fellow Mahomes manager, I too am frustrated by the lack of scoring we’ve seen from him recently. Part of the issue is his interceptions. Through two games he has thrown picks at a career-high 5.7%, the same as his touchdown rate. In Mahomes’ worst year throwing interceptions as a full-time starter, his INT rate was 2.3%, more than double his current rate. The mistakes will come down and we should see his passing numbers go up with Pacheco hurt, so now may be a good time to buy low on Mahomes.

🔥 Will Levis might not be a start outside of deep or 2QB leagues, but I think we need to give him another week before closing the door on him. He’s faced the Bears and Jets through two weeks, and the Bears pass rush has been among the best in the NFL. The Jets have strong sack numbers, but they haven’t pressured quarterbacks nearly as much as the Bears, and Levis did considerably better against the Jets. Green Bay is similar to New York in that they are about the same in pressure rate, but they have less than half the sacks. As a defense, the Packers have been middle of the pack against the pass and can be beaten on the ground, so this could be a good game for him to get his confidence up.

Running Backs

🐬 Miami gets Seattle this week. Skylar Thompson doesn’t look like the type of guy who can carry this offense, but I do think there is some hope here. De’Von Achane could come up big time in Week 3, as Seattle has allowed the seventh-highest target share to the running back position and Miami has targeted their running backs at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Raheem Mostert may be back this week but Achane looks like the clear favorite to lead the backfield in rushing attempts and targets.

🐻 The Colts have been destroyed on the ground so far in 2024. I’m not saying start D’Andre Swift this week, but what I am saying is if he has a big game capitalize on it and sell him.

☠️ The same can be said for Zahmir White. The Panthers are the perfect matchup for a guy like White who has averaged 3.1 YPC over his 22 attempts. Should he have a big game, it could present an opportunity to sell.

🐈‍⬛ On the flip side, Chuba Hubbard makes for an interesting flex play this weekend against the Raiders. Hubbard outpaced Miles Sanders 15 touches to 10 and Carolina should be more competitive with Andy Dalton at the helm. Vegas is giving up an average of 6.1 yards per rush attempt on defense and has given up the 10th most points FPPG to the position.

🔵 If Kenneth Walker sits, Zach Charbonnet is back in lineups as an RB2/RB3 option against Miami, especially with Seattle potentially finding themselves in a positive game script. If Walker plays, Walker should be in lineups and I’m likely sitting Charbonnet.

🤠 Some guys who could be in for tough sledding are Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. Baltimore is giving up an abysmal 2.3 yards per carry in 2023, and that includes a game against Isiah Pacheco.

🐄 It might be a revenge game for Cam Akers should Joe Mixon sit, but the Minnesota defense has been decent against the run this season. Yes, they did give up 100 rushing yards to Jordan Mason last week on 4 YPC, but before that, they stifled New York’s rushing attack. I believe Houston will move the ball in this game, but it might be more through the air than Akers on the ground. If Mixon plays, you’ll start him but I’d temper expectations given his injury.

Wide Receivers

⛪️ I get that the Saints’ offense has been on a tear. But hear me out: play Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed again. Shaheed has been getting a lot of his production on deep plays, but against the Eagles who have given up the second-most points to the wide receiver position and allow the fifth-most Net Yards per Attempt, I think it could happen again. Olave had a massive target share in Week 2, and could be in line for another large workload yet again.

🐅 If Tee Higgins is back this week, he quite literally couldn’t have chosen a better week to return to action. Washington has given up an average of 44 fantasy points per game to receivers in 2024 in half-PPR scoring. That’s an incredible amount. Last year the most half-PPR FPPG given up by a secondary were the Eagles at 37. That means Washington is giving up 19% more points than Philly last year. And while I started off by mentioning Tee Higgins, this is really a Ja’Marr Chase point here. I think a big bounceback is coming. Buy him now if you can. 🟠 

🔴 Going right down the list, Marvin Harrison Jr. gets yet another great matchup against Detroit this week. I doubt he scores twice on four receptions, but he should get a healthy target share against the run-funnel Lions defense.

🐎 Josh Reynolds is second on the Broncos in targets with 13, first in receptions, and first in receiving yards by 74 yards over the next closest teammate. Bo Nix’s lack of touchdowns, accuracy issues (as mentioned above) and penchant for throwing interceptions do cap his upside, but I think Reynolds is a worthy start in 12-team or deeper leagues.

⚡️ I get that Quentin Johnston scored twice last week and has shown promise, but if he has to go up against Joey Porter Jr., I’d sit him. Porter Jr. has been targeted five times this year and has given up just three completions for 38 yards through two games. If you want to start a Chargers receiver, it feels like a Ladd McConkey game.

Tight Ends

🐅 If we’re attacking the Washington secondary, why stop at the receivers? Mike Gesicki has been involved in this offense and even with Tee Higgins's potential return, I think he could be in for a good week. Gesicki has caught 10 of 13 targets for 109 yards and should’ve been TD. He is my favorite streaming tight end this week.

🎖️ In the same game, I’ll take Zach Ertz. It might not be pretty but at least he’s been consistent this year, with four targets in both games this year. If Jayden Daniels can get him a touchdown, even better.

And quite honestly, that’s about all I have for tight ends right now. It’s rough on the streets at tight end and because of that, I don’t have a lot to offer this week for streamers.

Best of luck this week! Go set some lineups and have fun!