2024 NFL Draft Preview

Hello everyone! How are things? We’ve got a lot to mention and talk about in this newsletter, and I wanted to get some things mentioned right off the bat.

First, I never dug into the Stefon Diggs trade. It all happened the week I was sick and that threw off my writing schedule, so I wasn’t able to cover it and I am sorry. I’ll briefly mention it today before diving into our main topic.

Secondly, the NFL Draft is nearly here! Starting Thursday, we’ll finally see, and not just speculate through endless mock drafts that will be 90% wrong anyway, where these incoming rookies will go. I can’t wait, and it’s gonna be a great time!

Stefon Diggs Traded to Houston

It’s been a little bit since this happened and I understand I’m a little late to the party. But basically, I think it means several things:

1. The Bills are drafting a WR in the draft. Likely round 1, but potentially rounds 2 and 3, loading up on talent and taking several shots to find their next WR because they have minimal depth and I doubt Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir suddenly become WR1’s and fill the void.

2. Dalton Kincaid feels like a much safer pick, as does James Cook, who was often utilized in the latter part of the season. The Bills changed OC’s on November 14th of 2023. Cook’s targets per game went up from 2.8 to 3.7. His rush attempts went up from 12 to 16.7 per game. Kincaid’s production actually dipped slightly but I think that is impacted by two games where he was just not involved and also the return of Dawson Knox.

3. For the Texans, they are going all in. I think the trio of Diggs, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins will all have value, but similar to a Chase/Higgins/Boyd scenario. They won’t all be good on the same week, but in a given week 1-2 of them can go off. It muddies their dynasty value but for me personally, it’s Tank, Collins, and then Diggs. For redraft, it’s Diggs, Tank, and Collins. I don’t believe Diggs is washed and is the superior talent, and Tank Dell was on his way to being the WR1 for them before his injury. Not to slight Collins here, as his long-term value is better, it’s 2024 I’m worried about.

2024 NFL Draft Preview

Just for fun, I and a couple of subscribers got together and did a mock draft on Sleeper, but we drafted players in the order we think they will go in the actual draft, and not for fantasy:

Caleb Williams is all but a Bear, and they’ve set him up well. Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are up for grabs with the 1.02 and 1.03, it’s a matter of who goes where. Quite honestly, Daniels may be a better fit for Washington because of their lack of an offensive line. His scrambling ability will come in handy and his passing isn’t all that bad either.

🐏 Maye wouldn’t have much of a receiver room, but the Patriots can add to it in the second round. They would need to go for a Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, or Jermaine Burton type, a larger receiver with either good hands and size or the ability to get open with route-running prowess. Basically, size on the outside, with Douglas operating in the slot.

For 🔵 JJ McCarthy, things get interesting. It’s becoming more and more popular to have him land in New York. I think they should go wide receiver and ride Daniel Jones for one more year, but I do see the logic. The Giants can reasonably get out of Jones’ contract in 2025, so if they let a rookie sit a year behind him or even let Jones start half a year before turning the keys over, it’s not the worst idea. Now they just need to get some receiver help, and quick.

Arizona and Los Angeles will likely draft wideouts unless they trade down. Arizona has at least a little depth and some promising talent on the roster with Trey McBride, but LA has next to no one on the roster who resembles a threat. While I think they should target Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze to the Chargers is not out of the question.

And that’s just the first six potential picks! Never mind the Bills and Chiefs needing wide receivers, the Cowboys adding a running back, and LA potentially adding a running back as well. Carolina needs to surround Bryce Young with more talent, and hopefully, they manage to get more out of the draft than a Jonathan Mingo type.

I’m low-key excited for Malik Washington 🤺 since I think he can be a good receiver. He’s a bit in the Xavier Legette mood where he didn’t have an early breakout but he looks good coming out of college. He’s not quite as night and day as Legette being a nobody and then becoming somebody, but Washington could be useful on a team with a need at wideout who may not have wide receivers as top priority targets (such as Denver, who have a hole at QB to fill, and yes I know they traded for Zach Wilson…my point stands stronger than ever).

Blake Corum to the Chargers and 🐂 Jonathon Brooks to the Cowboys makes too much sense. Corum’s former coach is now in LA and needs a running back. Corum isn’t exactly great at anything but he’s not really bad at anything either. He comes in, does his job, and then just goes home.

Brooks was operated on by the Cowboys physician, and had it not been for his injury at the end of 2023, is likely the RB1 of this class. Dallas needs a runner but in the meantime, Rico Dowdle can suffice after showing some promise last year. Though it wouldn’t shock me if Braelon Allen went to the Cowboys as well, who may look at his size and age and believe they can coach his flaws out of him.

Most of the running backs in this class are landing spot dependent, but should things line up right, 😼 Ray Davis being the rookie RB1 for fantasy wouldn’t surprise me at all. I really like his game and even though he’s older, it’s not as if he wasn’t productive until 2023. The Covid year really messed with this class and it caused some players to stay in college longer. He impressed me with his game and his production profile is among the best in the class (he actually grades out RB1 in my S240 model as well).

Someone like Isaac Guerendo to the Bengals might be interesting. He might not be a perfect fit like Pacheco to the Chiefs a few years back, but his speed score is best in class at 125.7, highly suggesting his explosive ability. His production profile is a bit lacking in some areas (yards per team play is one) but his size and speed combo may prove difficult for teams to pass up.

Quarterback and wide receiver will be the main storyline from round 1, with running backs potentially making an appearance in round 2 with the Chargers and Cowboys. Though they may wait to take their shot until round 3. Either way, I expect at least a few day-two running backs.

Once you get past that, it’s going to be a crapshoot. Day-three running backs usually don’t pan out at a high rate, but it doesn’t hurt to take some shots in your rookie draft. That or trade away some of your later picks for some usable veterans to a guy who is high on third or fourth-round rookies in fantasy drafts.

That will do it for this edition of the Ballfield Banter newsletter! Thanks for reading and I can’t wait to see what the draft has in store for us all. It’s like Christmas for us NFL nerds 🤣 🎄 Or, at least for me!